This article is written by professional sports handicapper MFK👑Bets. The Value Vector Method is a profitable way of locating underpriced teams, which can lead to increasing your long term success.
How odds movement can improve sports betting for you.
Do you want to know how you can analyze sports betting more deeply and therefore improve your profits by analyzing odds movement?
In this article, I’ll show you exactly what to look out for.
You should learn to correctly read the odds movement in sports betting – because they can help you tremendously with your own bets.
What Causes Betting Odds to Move
Betting odds movement have 5 different causes:
- Betting syndicates
- Injuries, suspensions and lineups
- Team news
- Bookmaker adjustments
- Whale betting
The biggest betting odds movements come from the largest professional betting syndicates because they always bet a lot of money. In many cases they have no other choice than to use so-called agents to whom the bets are transmitted via skype chat.
These agents can bet significantly more over their connections than would be the case with normal bookmaker accounts. But that also has dramatic consequences for the market. In soccer markets, for example, it is not uncommon for betting odds to drop by 10 or significantly more points within a few minutes.
In such cases, you can assume that a large betting syndicate was at work – provided that the bet took place on the match day itself. How much money the big syndicates can bet with the help of agents depends heavily on the bookmaker’s limits (especially SBO and Singbet), and these limits are not big enough in the days leading up to the game day.
The development of the sports betting odds based on a syndicate bet shows the following characteristics in summary:
- Sudden price drop (5-30 minutes)
- Sharp drop in prices (11+ points)
- Happens on the day of the game (or the night before)
When syndicates see value in a particular bet, the following factors also determine whether they will place a bet:
- What are the betting limits at SBO and Singbet?
- Will a competitor strike?
- Does the trader expect a price increase?
- How close are the constellations?
What are the betting limits?
Since large betting syndicates have considerable running costs to cope with, they rely heavily on timing a bet – because if they don’t get enough money per bet, the betting return is the not worth the prep effort.
Will a competitor strike first?
In some cases syndicates are willing to wait until the next or the next limit increase – and accept the risk that the competition will strike beforehand.
Does the trader expect a price increase?
Every now and then it happened that betting syndicates expected a price increase for certain bets. In these cases it was less likely that a major competitor would have a similar view of the market situation.
How close are the constellations?
Becoming aware of the lineups always triggers a hectic rush with large betting syndicates, as everything has to go very quickly now. In contrast, in the hour or two immediately before the announcement, there is usually the calm before the storm. Since new information is imminent, syndicates often forego a bet during this period.
Is there any new information?
Beyond the lineups, there may also be other new information that could prevent or trigger a bet. These are usually special events, for example if a player is reported as injured at noon, or if rumors of betting fraud make the rounds.
Other betting professionals
There are also many betting professionals who form smaller syndicates – and those who work all by themselves. While they make the odds move less dramatically, you can sometimes pick up signals from them too.
This is especially true in football, if you do not bet in Asia or only bet at different times, and instead first bet at Pinnacle. Pinnacle is well known for being sensitive to bets from customers whose opinions they respect.
So if you observe that the Pinnacle price changes by a few points, but nothing happens in Asia or something is delayed (especially if the Pinnacle price is not the highest), then you could bet a smaller professional do have.
It happens regularly that little bets are made in certain markets. Since little turnover is bad for the bookmaker, they try to stimulate business by making slight adjustments to odds. With a little luck you will reach the ideal point at which smaller bets come in, but which do not contain any value and therefore do not trigger professional bets.
This can backfire when big bets are triggered. In my time as a trader, I often just waited for the price to drift one or two points in my direction because I could get so much more money for the same bet. The method seems to work well on the whole, otherwise it would not be used again and again.
You can recognize this form of odds development from the slow drift for no apparent reason. This always happens very slowly, point by point and over long periods of time.
While these bets are harder to find, they also send very valuable signals.
VSiN regularly discusses betting lines with casino linemakers, these are excellent shows to watch and learn from. In fact that’s to top tip in the 5 Best NFL Betting Tools.
For the sake of completeness, we should also mention this rare phenomenon: whale betting. This means big fish that can (and want to) bet a lot of money, but have no idea about betting. For example, it happens every now and then that a Chinese billionaire wants to bet on football and turns to an agent of his choice.
The Value Vector Method Analysis
Value often appears in the same teams over a long period of time – it sometimes takes a long time for the market to recognize this and correct it accordingly. This applies to both the Asian handicaps and the over/under markets.
This may surprise you at first, but it’s basically logical: by definition, value arises where teams are overestimated or underestimated, and a similar logic applies to the number of goals that fall with the participation of certain teams. Short-term trends are often followed by an overreaction: nothing new in betting.
So if you are able to identify syndicate bets, there is a good chance that the bet in question will still offer value the next day. This is especially true if the corresponding bet on the team in question should have lost in the previous week.
Value Betting Opportunity
Identify syndicate bets on teams, which often indicates value. The value will often continue for the following games, until the market adjusts.
However, this also applies to this analysis technology: You cannot rely on it alone. The reality is complicated: For example, two underrated teams can collide, or suspensions and injuries can mess up the previously simple calculation.
Value Vector Conclusion
Did I miss anything? Let me know if you have any similar betting strategies or methods. Please leave a comment or tweet this post.