by Doug Harper - NFL Over Under betting is one of the most profitable and popular wagers available. The Over Under (or totals) bet is simply betting on the total or combined score in the game.
NFL: Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs
Over 48 -110
Under 48 -110
You bet on if you think the total points scored is over or under 48, regardless of who wins.
NFL Over Under Tips
Over Under betting on NFL games can be very profitable. NFL sharp bettors and veteran fantasy footballers can consistently hit better than 60% on totals bets. Sportsbooks keep the limits relatively low for total score betting because they know its one of the most profitable wagers for professional sports bettors. Here's a few things to consider when betting NFL game totals...
- Keep it low: Always consider betting the under first, 56% of NFL games finish under the posted number. The betting public has always favored the over for several reasons, don't fall into the trap. Oddsmakers know that tendency and often inflate the betting lines to allow for it.
- Common Numbers: 40% of NFL games result in the following totals... 33, 37, 38, 41, 44, 45, 47, 48, 51, 54. The two most common combined points are 41 and 48. If your serious about maximizing your profit, shop around and try to get an extra half point to your advantage.
- Go against the flow: Oddsmakers count on public perception and put a premium (in the form increasing or decreasing the total) on it. If you have the guts to consistently go against public perception, you will be rewarded with "value" on your totals bets over the long term.
- Weather and Injuries: Start your over under handicapping each week on Thursday. Check the NFL point spread, injury reports and weather forecast. Remember, look to bet the under first. Injuries on offense and poor weather forecast favor the under bets. Defensive injuries can favor a high-scoring game.
Over Under Betting Basics
Over under betting (aka Totals) is a popular type of bet among NFL handicappers. In simple terms it’s the easy wager available.
Over Under Betting Line Example
Green Bay at Kansas City o/u 48
- A sports betting site posts the total (over/under) for a game.
- You choose to bet over or under the number (48).
- Once the game has a final score you add the total number of points scored.
- If the final score is under the total (48) under bets win & over bets lose. If the final score is over the total (48) over bets win & under bets lose.
NFL Over Under Winning Strategies
Predict the Weather
This is a simple and profitable method of betting on totals.
Wind is the most important factor involved when handicapping how many points two teams will score. In fact during the 2021 regular season - when the wind blows 10 mph or more, the under is 35-16 (69 percent)!
Despite this huge advantage, the betting public consistently overlooks wind conditions until a few hours prior to game time. You can take advantage of this by betting before the sportsbooks adjust the lines to a lower number. Here’s how.
- Check the weather forecast on Friday morning. Look for windy conditions of 15+ mph (exclude dome games.)
- See if the betting line has already moved to reflect the condition. If not, you’ve got a playable game.
- If the line has shifted a small amount but still above a key number higher than 45, it’s still a high value wager.
NFL Over Under betting is one of the most popular but least researched wagers available. You can profit from over under betting if you pay attention to what your doing an put a little time into your handicapping. Take it serious for 1 month, and I think you will see how easy over under betting can be.
