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Saturday Night Football Free Pick – Cowboys at Buccaneers

December 17, 2011 in Free Picks

LeGarrette Blount

LeGarrette Blount leads the Bucs tonight.

Tampa Bay +7.5 vs Dallas Cowboys

This line doesn’t make much sense to me, the Cowboys have played close games all year and they’re giving up over a TD on the road? Sure Tampa has played terrible recently, but they’re the kind of physical bruiser that can give the Cowboys big problems. Just play tough, physical ball and eventually the “talented” Cowboys will bring their game to the opponent’s level.

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Little Tony Romo has some weapons, but that O-line is starting to show it’s youth without Demarco Murray around – Romo will be under pressure and scoring won’t come easily. I expect the Dallas defense will play better, but they’re not very good on that side of the ball. Tampa will have some success in the running game which could open some play-action success. I’ll take the Bucs +7.5.

Tackle Props

There are several options for tonight’s game & several are worth playing. Tackle props are all about schemes, opportunity and value/price.

S.Lee solo+assisted tackles ov 7½ -110
This is the best bet of the night. When he’s been healthy, Lee has covered this number 6 out of 9 games and this is the healthiest he’s been since breaking his hand. Tampa’s going to establish the run, which will provide plenty of tackle opportunities for Dallas. Lee is one of the top LBs in the league and should have this covered easily.

G.Sensabaugh solo+assisted tackles ov 5½ +125
Sensabaugh isn’t very good and that’s exactly why we’re getting a good price in this situation. He projects out to 6 tackles tonight so this is a straight value play. Same deal as Lee, there should be plenty of tackle opportunities for Dallas, so even if Sensabaugh misses a few he should be close to the number. He’ll be on the field for all the snaps.

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Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Trends

December 17, 2011 in Guest Blogger

WagerWeb

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It’s a must-win on Saturday night for Dallas, which finds itself currently out of the playoff chase but can still win the NFC East by winning out. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, has lost seven straight and just wants the season over.

It’s that special time of year again, that period when the Cowboys start feeling charitable and begin giving away football games. Giving up two TDs in the final 3 minutes against the Giants will probably result in another giveaway — the division title. The Cowboys have been their own worst enemy. They’ve blown five fourth-quarter leads for losses and lost three games in which they led by more than 10 points. Jason Garrett’s decision-making and the team’s defense have come under scrutiny the past few weeks. Poor clock management and conservative play calling prompted Cowboys fans to ask Jerry Jones whether Garrett’s job was on the line. Jones said Garrett was safe.

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The offensive line must keep the pocket clean for QB Josh Freeman, who isn’t 100%, to keep Tampa Bay within striking distance. Dallas’ secondary has holes that are easily exposed when blockers keep LB DeMarcus Ware out of the backfield. The Cowboys lost the focal point of their offense, rookie RB DeMarco Murray (broken ankle), last weekend. RB Felix Jones and newly signed Sammy Morris will step in. Murray, averaging 137.4 rushing yards over the Cowboys’ last five victories and on pace to become the franchise’s first 1,000-yard back since 2006, has been placed on injured reserve.

QB Tony Romo should continue to work inside-out, throwing underneath passes to WR Laurent Robinson and TE Jason Witten before winding up for shots to WRs Miles Austin and Dez Bryant.

Tampa Bay seemed to have a budding star on its hands in 2010 in Josh Freeman, who had 25 touchdown passes and just six interceptions. That ratio has dropped to 12 TDs and a league-high 18 interceptions this year. Freeman returned last Sunday after missing a game with an injured throwing shoulder, but the results were disastrous as the Buccaneers fell 41-14 at Jacksonville. Tampa Bay has allowed the most points in the NFC (370) and has lost four times at by least 19.

WAGERWEB.COM NFL FOOTBALL BETS— Cowboys -7 (47)

  • RECORD VS. SPREAD — Dallas 4-8-1; Tampa Bay 4-9
  • SERIES RECORD — Cowboys leads 11-3
  • LAST MEETING — Cowboys beat Buccaneers 34-21, Sept. 13, 2009
  • LAST WEEK — Cowboys lost to Giants 37-34; Buccaneers lost to Jaguars 41-14
  • COWBOYS OFFENSE — OVERALL (6), RUSH (14), PASS (6)
  • COWBOYS DEFENSE — OVERALL (16), RUSH (8), PASS (24)
  • BUCCANEERS OFFENSE — OVERALL (18), RUSH (T24), PASS (13)
  • BUCCANEERS DEFENSE — OVERALL (29), RUSH (28), PASS (27)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES — Cowboys have dominated series, winning 11 of 14 meetings. However, Bucs have won two of four games played in Tampa. … Dallas QB Tony Romo 2-0 vs. Tampa Bay, completing 67.9 percent of passes for 659 yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions for a passer rating of 147.2. He threw a career-best five TD passes against Bucs on Thanksgiving Day in 2006. … Cowboys RB Felix Jones returns to lineup, replacing rookie DeMarco Murray, who broke right ankle during opening quarter of last week’s loss to Giants. Jones came off bench to rush for 106 yards, third 100-yard performance of his career. … Dallas TE Jason Witten and WRs Dez Bryant, Mile Austin and Laurent Robinson pose big challenge for Tampa Bay secondary, which hopes to get back injured CB Aqib Talib, who sat most of past two games with sore right hamstring. … Bryant has TDs in three of Cowboys’ past four games; Robinson coming off four-reception, 137-yard, one TD performance against Giants, and Austin had 42-yard TD catch against Tampa Bay when teams last faced each other. … Tampa Bay’s seven-game losing streak matches longest under third-year coach Raheem Morris, who lost to Dallas in his debut as NFL’s youngest coach. … DE Adrian Clayborn one of few bright spots for Tampa Bay defense ranked 29th. First-round draft pick is tied for second among NFC rookies with 6½ sacks.

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LeGarrette Blount returns for Tampa

November 2, 2011 in Guest Blogger

WagerWeb

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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a crucial NFC South matchup with the New Orleans Saints on Sunday and it appears that the Bucs will get back starting running back LeGarrette Blount for the game. New Orleans opened as an 8-point home favorite on WagerWeb.com’s NFL football bets.

The Bucs badly need Blount because his backup Earnest Graham, was lost for the season with a torn right Achilles’ tendon. So not only will Blount be the starter but also as the third down back after missing the past two games with an MCL sprain. Graham often took his spot in most third down situations.

“Oh yeah, I know I’m going to play third downs in this game,” Blount said. “I’m probably not going to play all of them, but I know I’m going to play quite a few of them. I’ve shown that I know the protections and I know the routes and everything and I can catch the ball, so that’s going to help us out tremendously. It’s going to let me stay in the game a little bit longer and play a lot more snaps, so I’m excited.

“I feel good. Everything is back in store, everything is where it needs to be,” Blount said. “My recovery was a little bit faster than what we thought, so everything is going real well. It’s looking good for this week.”

Nobody will benefit more from the return of Blount and the Bucs running game more than quarterback Josh Freeman, who threw four interceptions in a 24-18 loss to the Chicago Bears in London. He leads the NFL with 10 picks this year. When Freeman is at his best, the Bucs use play-action to set up the vertical passing game.

The Bucs were off this past week and will no doubt see an angry Saints team that was just shocked by the previously winless Rams. New Orleans has just the No. 28 rush defense in the league. The Bucs beat the Saints 26-20 in Tampa on Oct. 16 behind 303 yards and two TDs from Freeman and 109 yards from Graham in Blount’s place. Thus a win Sunday would clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker for Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans, which leads the South by a half game.