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Monday Night Football Free Pick – Steelers at 49ers

December 19, 2011 in Free Picks

Patrick Willis

Patrick Willis leads the Niners tonight.

This game has been off the board all week & not been an easy one to handicap due to the status of Ben R. There are some significant trends that point to the Steelers tonight, but I’m going to ignore them because this is not the same Niner crew we’ve seen in recent years.

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Both teams figure to run the ball often tonight and this will be a hard-nosed battle in the trenches. If you haven’t followed San Fran this year, you might be surprised to learn they’ve got the top rushing D in the NFL. Even if Big Ben plays it’s tough to see Pittsburgh scoring often without a realistic running threat to open up deep play-action passes.

Frank Gore is dinged up and only got 10 touches last week. Harbaugh eluded to other backs getting carries this week and it makes sense. San Fran needs Gore to be tip-top when the playoffs start and there’s no reason to risk him in tonight’s game. Even with Gore at 100% the Niner’s have struggled in the redzone, settling for too many FG attempts. I think this game will be viewed as opportunity by Harbaugh to change things up and give other playoff teams some things to think about. Alex Smith runs hot or cold… if he’s “on” tonight there’s a good chance to have some success against the Steeler D without their best pass rusher.

The biggest factor in the game tonight will be the 49er’s ability to shut down the Steeler run game and generated some pressure against a poor O-line. We’ve seen the Steelers go into hibernation with a backup QB before, and that’s certainly a possibility tonight. I have no doubt San Fran will play well and be competitive, that’s where my money is going. Pick: 49ers

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Saturday Night Football Free Pick – Cowboys at Buccaneers

December 17, 2011 in Free Picks

LeGarrette Blount

LeGarrette Blount leads the Bucs tonight.

Tampa Bay +7.5 vs Dallas Cowboys

This line doesn’t make much sense to me, the Cowboys have played close games all year and they’re giving up over a TD on the road? Sure Tampa has played terrible recently, but they’re the kind of physical bruiser that can give the Cowboys big problems. Just play tough, physical ball and eventually the “talented” Cowboys will bring their game to the opponent’s level.

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Little Tony Romo has some weapons, but that O-line is starting to show it’s youth without Demarco Murray around – Romo will be under pressure and scoring won’t come easily. I expect the Dallas defense will play better, but they’re not very good on that side of the ball. Tampa will have some success in the running game which could open some play-action success. I’ll take the Bucs +7.5.

Tackle Props

There are several options for tonight’s game & several are worth playing. Tackle props are all about schemes, opportunity and value/price.

S.Lee solo+assisted tackles ov 7½ -110
This is the best bet of the night. When he’s been healthy, Lee has covered this number 6 out of 9 games and this is the healthiest he’s been since breaking his hand. Tampa’s going to establish the run, which will provide plenty of tackle opportunities for Dallas. Lee is one of the top LBs in the league and should have this covered easily.

G.Sensabaugh solo+assisted tackles ov 5½ +125
Sensabaugh isn’t very good and that’s exactly why we’re getting a good price in this situation. He projects out to 6 tackles tonight so this is a straight value play. Same deal as Lee, there should be plenty of tackle opportunities for Dallas, so even if Sensabaugh misses a few he should be close to the number. He’ll be on the field for all the snaps.

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Monday Night Free Pick – Patriots vs Chiefs

November 21, 2011 in Free Picks

Derrick Johnson

Big game for Derrick Johnson tonight

New England -16.5 vs Kansas City

Dancing with the Stars is looking good tonight, with this terrible matchup. Tyler Palko? is making his NFL debut tonight. Now I usually look for reasons why a backup will put in a good performance, but it’s hard to bet on it this time. 17 points is tough to give up against anyone and it makes me uncomfortable, personally.. I’m taking a pass on this one.

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But if you must, It’s hard to come up with any good reasons to take KC other than your 17 point head start. I guess you could rely on the competitive spirit of pro football players or pride. New England has always been a bully and I’d expect them to keep their foot on the gas until Haley cries “Uncle,” so 17 points may not be too bad. Half-hearted Pick: New England

Props

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Total Tackles & Assists – Derrick Johnson (KC) over 7.5: Tonight’s best bet. Johnson has put up great numbers when given enough tackle opportunities, which is exactly how it figures tonight. New England has provided plenty of tackle chances all season and ILB have been racking up big numbers each week. Any way you look at it, time of possession should favor the Pats and that means Johnson covers this number before we start the 4th quarter. Playable up to -130.

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Thursday Night Free Pick – Chargers vs Raiders

November 10, 2011 in Free Picks

Malcolm Floyd

San Diego is the Thursday Night Free Pick

San Diego -7 vs Oakland

I don’t think 7 is too much to give up tonight. Oakland burned me last week, but reminded me about why Cincinnati is good this year… they got rid of Carson Palmer. When was the last time he played well? Anyway, its hard to argue which team has the better QB or which team needs this game the most. In either case I’d say San Diego, who got things rolling last week despite losing to Green Bay.

Tackle Props

Total Tackles & Assists – Tyvon Branch Over 7 -115:
Branch is almost always a good bet to go over 7, and tonight should be no exception. San Diego is great matchup for tackle opportunities and Branch is about the only healthy player left in the Raiders secondary. He’s put up 7 or more in 7 of 8 games this year… and did I mention this is a good matchup. What the in-actives, if Ro McClain is scratched Branch is a no-brainer.

Total Tackles & Assists – Eric Weddle (SD) Ov/Un 5.5:
I’m going to pass on Weddle, he’s an up-n-down producer and projects to around 6 tackles tonight. Here’s the deal… I think he’ll end up covering by halftime or put up a nothing game. So, if you can get a big price one way or the other… take a shot.

R.Seymour solo+assisted tackles ov/un 3½:
D-Line players are a tough handicap. 4 tackles is such a low number that it’s hard to ever really get comfortable when betting under the total. I still have to lean towards the under for Seymour though. Philip Rivers is well protected, getting pressured on less than 10% of his drop backs. To make things more difficult, the Raiders pass rush has been nonexistent since Shaughnessy went down.

Rolando McClain – He’s been injured. If he plays and gets all the snaps, it’ll be a double digit night. San Diego has produced huge games for ILB’s all year and it’ll happen again tonight. The question is… who’ll be getting the tackles?

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Monday Night Free Pick – Bears vs Eagles

November 7, 2011 in Free Picks

Lesean McCoy

LeSean McCoy is the key to tonight's game.

This a huge game for both teams and a very difficult handicap. These are two up-n-down teams with QBs that can light it up or burn it down. I think Philly has more talent, but I don’t trust them to play together against anyone except Dallas. Chicago seems to thrive in chaotic games thanks to their special teams/defensive take-aways and this game has chaos written all over it. So, the Bears +7.5 looks pretty good, but I’m going to pass on it. Something tells tells me the Eagles are going to be able to run the ball tonight and control the clock like they did last week.

The Bears have struggled all season in their passing game and if they can’t get 3rd down conversions this game will go Under 47, which is my bet for the night. The two most likely scenarios in this game both point to a Under game… Cutler struggles in the passing game and LeSean McCoy see’s lot of action.

Urlacher and Briggs both project out at around 9 tackles tonight as the Eagles provide the 2nd most tackle opportunities in the league. Urlacher’s number is almost always higher than Briggs, so you should see some value in Lance this week. Don’t be scared to play both over if you get a good price on a number like 7.

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Monday Night Free Pick – Chargers vs Chiefs

October 31, 2011 in Free Picks

San Diego (-3) vs Kansas City

Malcolm Floyd

San Diego is the Monday Night Free Pick

I considered making this game one of my Premium Picks this week, but ended up going with Eagles instead. Hopefully this one turns out as well. The Chiefs certainly had a huge win last week on the road in Oakland, but if you look at more than the score it wasn’t that impressive. The Raiders were terrible at QB, throwing 6 INTs. I’ll give KC some credit for making the plays but I doubt we’ll see Rivers making many mistakes. My real concern with the Chiefs is their offense which did almost zilch last week, I expect they’ll struggle again this week as San Diego will work hard to limit Bowe.

San Diego’s second half last week is a real head-scratcher and makes me a little squeamish to pull the trigger tonight, but I think its a good bet. The Chargers have more weapons offensively and have shown glimpses of being a good team, which KC has not. I expect they’ll get it in gear tonight for a key divisional game and bring home an easy win. Pick: Chargers

Betting Lines from SportsBet

I also like Under 45 tonight. KC is offensively challenged and Rivers is not lighting it up like he has in the past. This is a huge game for both teams and that usually brings out the running games, which is what KC prefers anyway.

Tackle Prop

D.Johnson solo+assisted tackles ov 7½ (-110): This is the best bet of the night. Johnson put up 13 tackles last and I expect him to keep rolling against the Chargers, who provide the 3rd most tackle opportunities in the league. Inside LBs have posted 9 or more tackles in four of the Chargers six games and Johnson is better than most of those guys, so we should him close to the cover by halftime.

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Monday Night Free Pick – Jets at Dolphins

October 17, 2011 in Free Picks

David Harris

In all honesty, this is one of my least favorite games of Week 6. (Let me get this out of the way first, I am not playing the Dolphins). I don’t trust the Jets right now, and I really don’t like the thought of giving up 7 points while relying on Mark Sanchez. There’s also a significant trend going against the Jets… winless team coming off byes (like Miami) are something like 22-8 ATS. But… I doubt many of those teams had a new QB like the Dolplhins will be running out there with Matt Moore. Finally, I know the Jets are a “desperate team” but I think they’re as likely to unravel as play well. So I don’t know which side to play.

I do like Under 42.5. The Jets need a win badly, so Ryan will want to rely on his defense and limit Sanchez’s opportunities for mistakes. The Dolphins will do the same for their new QB. Lots of rushing attack = low score tonight.

Tackle Props (NFL Prop Bets at SportBet)

D.Harris solo+assisted tackles ov 6½ -115
I’ll take Harris to cover 6.5 tonight because it is such low number for him. This game doesn’t figure to offer a lot of tackle opportunities as both QBs won’t be allowed to take many chances, which probably means a big game for the punters. This is hardly a lock, but it’s MNF… I got to play something or watch Dances with the Stars.

B.Scott solo+assisted tackles ov/un 6½
Tough call on Scott. I think Harris will have the better game based on the scheme and that means it’ll be difficult for Scott to rack up tackles unless Miami can convert some 3rd downs. I’d lean to the under, especially if it’s got a + next to it.

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Monday Night Free Picks – Lions vs Bears

October 10, 2011 in Free Picks

I’m a little short on time today (GO Rangers!), but here’s a quick look at what I’m doing for tonight’s game.

Detroit -5.5 vs Chicago
Megatron and Stafford are getting all the attention, but don’t forget about the Lions defense. They’ve come up with the big stops everytime they’ve had too. Chicago has huge problems protecting Cutler and I think that’ll be the key to this game as Detroit’s front seven dominates the night. Just keep the ball away from Hester and Detroit rolls the Bears. Pick: Lions

B.Urlacher solo+assisted tackles ov 7½ (-115)
Urlacher is one of the guys I usually try to fade.  Sure he’s a great player, but he always gets bet to go over and that drives the value of betting against him.  Tonight however, I think they missed the number a bit.  Unless we get a crazy game… Urlacher should be into double digits easily. The Detroit stat keep was handing out plenty of assists in the Lions only home game this year and that’s enough to convince me Urlacher is worth taking at -125.  If he slides any higher you should take a pass though.

L.Briggs solo+assisted tackles un 7½ (+120)
Briggs projects out close to this number, but +120 is a decent value.

 

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Monday Night Free Picks – Cowboys vs Redskins

September 26, 2011 in Free Picks

The Dallas injury report is getting all the attention this week, but I think the inexperience of the Cowboy’s O-line will be a major factor in the outcome. Obviously Dallas needs to protect Romo and I suspect we’ll see a very conservative passing attack from Garrett. Dallas rushing attack has been terrible so far and unless there’s a major improvement (unlikely), I don’t see any reason why the Skins can’t keep the score down.

The most likely scenario, in my opinion, is a low scoring (by 2011 standards) game that gets decided late. So.. I like Under 44.5. I think this is a good opportunity to tie together a parlay too Under 44.5 + Washington +3.

Finally a game with multiple tackle props to choose from… Lines from Sportbet

K.Brooking solo+assisted tackles un 6 (-115)
This one looks too good to be true. Brooking’s snap count has decreased significantly this year as Sean Lee has emerged. I’ve said it a hundred times… betting tackle props is all about how many opportunities you get and if Brooking is only on the field for 25 snaps it will be tough to convert 7 tackles. Even as a full time player in 2010 Brooking didn’t go over 6 50% of the games. Tonight’s best bet.

S.Lee solo+assisted tackles ov/un 7
Hmmm… Lee projects out around 10 tackles and he should cover 7, but -125 (even money is a fair price) is too pricey for me. I’d actually take a stab at the under if it shoots up to +130ish. Lee’s been great this year, but the game dynamics might limit his opportunities.

L.Fletcher solo+assisted tackles ov 8½ (+100)
Some people are saying Fletcher has lost it due to his slow start, but he’s not had the opportunities in Weeks 1 & 2. Fletcher had 11 tackles in both games against Dallas last year, who also allowed Willis a huge game last week. If Fletcher has anything left, this will be a good game to pad his stats. I’m betting on him to come through tonight.

G.Sensabaugh solo+assisted tackles ov/un 5½
I’m no fan of Sensabaugh but he’s one of the few healthy guys in the Dallas secondary and he’ll be on the field for every snap. That doesn’t mean he’ll have a monster game but if his price slides up to +100 or more it’s worth a bet.

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Monday Night Free Picks – Giants vs Rams

September 19, 2011 in Free Picks

Tonight’s game between the Rams and Giants -8  is a tough one for handicappers, I’m not sure we learned anything about either team in week 1 and there a few injuries to consider.  I think Sam Bradford is the key to the game.  IF he’s healthy St Louis will resort to it’s passing attack exclusively since Jackson is probably out.  I’m usually not a fan of pass heavy attacks, but the Giants secondary is terrible and Bradford’s short passing attack should be able to beat the pass rush.  Considering the Giants conservative offense will likely keep the Rams in the game, I think a shot at +280 on the Rams is a pretty good play.  Personally, I’m going  to skip playing the sides and go with a prop. Betting lines from 5Dimes.

J.Laurinaitis solo+assists tackles OVER 6½ (-130)
JLau was over 7 in 10 of 16 games last year and he projects out at 11 tonight.  For the new subscribers/readers, betting tackle props is heavily dependent on the defensive scheme and how many tackle opportunities are available.  Against the Giants JLau should have plenty of chances and he’s proven to be one of the more talented young LBs in the league, so I don’t mind laying the -130 and watching him cover the number by halftime. Tonight’s best play.

A.Rolle solo+assisted tackles ov/un 5½
5½ is a pretty good number for Antrel Rolle, unless you get a price of +130 or more it’s probably not worth betting.  If you got him going (or against) tonight in FF and HAVE to play him… I’d lean towards the under.  Kenny Phillips will most likely be in the box more tonight which will allow Rolle some freedom to roam and look for big plays.

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