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Super Bowl Odds Historical Trends

February 2, 2011 in Superbowl

Super Bowl betting action is just around the corner, and here at BetUS Sportsbook, we’re taking a look at some of the notable historical trends that have occurred in the biggest game of the year. Take a look at how the Super Bowl odds historical trends have shook out!

The first thing to take note of here is that the Steelers and Packers have each played in their share of Super Bowls. The Packers have been favored in all four of their games, and they have gone 2-1-1 ATS to show for their work.

The problem that the Packers have in this one is that they haven’t beaten the Super Bowl betting odds since 1968, the year of the second Super Bowl. Sure, they coasted to easy covers against both the Kansas City Chiefs and the Oakland Raiders in back to back years, but that was certainly before the NFL really became a league full of parity.

Green Bay was taken down in the Super Bowl as 11 point underdogs in Super Bowl XXXII against the Denver Broncos, making it one of the biggest upsets in Super Bowl history, and the 14 point margin of victory over the New England Patriots the year before was only good enough for a push.

The Steelers, on the other hand, have been absolutely stunning. They are 6-1 SU in their seven Super Bowl appearances, and they are hoping for another big time Super Bowl odds triumph in this one. This is only the second time that they have been dogs in the big game though, as they were favored in all six of their wins.

They were beaten by the Dallas Cowboys in a game in which they were good enough to cover the spread in Super Bowl XXX, but they are only 4-2 ATS in their six victories. The most recent Super Bowl appearance, a 27-23 win over the Arizona Cardinals, wasn’t enough to cover the 6.5-point closing number.

Favorites in the Super Bowl are 32-12 SU. The winner of the game also covered the spread in each of the first nine Super Bowls, but the first time a dog stuck inside of the number but didn’t win the game was in Super Bowl X when these Steelers knocked off the Dallas Cowboys 21-17 as seven point chalks.

The next time that happened was a whopping 13 years later, as the San Francisco 49ers won, but failed to beat the Super Bowl odds against the Cincinnati Bengals in Super Bowl XXIII.

Favorites are 24-18-2 ATS from an all-time standpoint, but of the six games in which they won but failed to cover, three of them have occurred since 2004 with the first being when the New England Patriots needed an Adam Vinetiari field goal to beat the Carolina Panthers 32-29 as touchdown chalks.

Underdogs have covered the Super Bowl odds three times in a row, winning two of the three outright as well.

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Pittsburgh Steelers – 5 Key Players

February 1, 2011 in Superbowl

James FarriorIt’s easy to look at the names like Ben Roethlisberger, Hines Ward, Rashard Mendenhall, and the likes when analyzing the chance that the Pittsburgh Steelers have at winning Super Bowl XLV, but in order to beat the Green Bay Packers, some others are going to have to step up and make a difference.

Here are the five Steelers that could help them make for great Super Bowl predictions this coming week.

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  1. James Farrior – Farrior is really the best run stopper on this team, and though he really isn’t considered the most talented of these four linebackers in the 3-4, he might be the most important when it comes to containing James Starks. Farrior has been relatively quiet all season long, but he has been around this game for a long time, and we are going to make our Super Bowl predictions that he could be in for a big one come Sunday.
  2. Doug Legursky – This is a name that you are going to have to remember. No one will point the finger at Legursky if the Steelers win the Super Bowl, saying that he had a great game, but if Pittsburgh is going to be the better side for Super Bowl predictions, he just cannot play poorly. This is the man that is going to be replacing the injured Maurkice Pouncey on the offensive line, and he is going to be looking straight into the eyes of BJ Raji, one of the most feared nose tackles in the game. If Legursky can’t stop Pouncey, it’s going to be a long night for Ben Roethlisberger and the offense.
  3. Antwaan Randle El – The pass that Randle El threw to Hines Ward in the end zone in Super Bowl XL might have been one of the best plays in the history of the Steelers’ franchise. Randle El hasn’t touched the ball once on offense yet in this postseason, but he could be the man that turns the tide in this one and makes Pittsburgh the right side for Super Bowl predictions.
  4. Ryan Clark – All of the attention in the Pittsburgh secondary has been put on the shoulders of Troy Polamalu, but perhaps we should all be watching out for Clark instead. He’s not the greatest coverage safety in the world, but Defensive Coordinator Dick LeBeau has confidence with him covering over the top or on blitzes. Clark is definitely the unheralded player on this defense.
  5. Isaac Redman – Redman is the man that is going to spell Rashard Mendenhall from time to time, and he has some great hands and is often used on third down because of it. Don’t be surprised if this is the man that can slip out of the backfield and make that one big play to move the chains on 3rd and long that you remember on a huge scoring drive.

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NFC Superbowl Best Bets

January 5, 2011 in NFL Playoffs

Enter the Wild Card Week ChallengeThe Chicago Bears are offering great long shot odds to win Super Bowl 45 online betting this season. The Bears, the 2nd seed in the NFC Playoffs, gets a bye and homefield advantage for their very first playoff game in two weeks.

They also could take on a team that they’ve already beaten before and/or is one of the worst teams to ever win an NFL Division, the Seattle Seahawks.

The ‘Hawks won the NFC West. Let’s take a look at the odds on the Bears as well as another team going off at double-digit long shot odds to win Super Bowl 45 from the NFC Conference.

Best Long Shot Bet: Chicago Bears +1200

Da Bears played their butts off trying to keep rival Green Bay out of the playoffs in Week 17 but it just didn’t work out for them. What they showed, however, was incredible heart and guts. I have no idea why the Bears aren’t the second favorite in the NFC, after #1 seeded Atlanta, to win the Super Bowl. Getting 12/1 long shot odds to win Super Bowl 45 on a team that won 7 out of their last 9 games is awesome. Yes, the Bears have issues along their offensive line. Yes, the Bears can implode like when they did when losing to New England 7 to 36, but they also have the 9th ranked defense in the NFL overall and the 2nd ranked D in the league versus the run. They’re worth a look.

Second Best Long Shot Bet: Green Bay Packers +1200

A month ago, when everybody was ga-ga over Philly QB Michael Vick, some even (hilariously!) saying that Vick deserved the league MVP, nobody was predicting that the Packers could beat the Eagles in a playoff game. Not now. Green Bay goes to Philadelphia this weekend as the #6 seed in the playoffs. They’re also only a 2 ½ point dog meaning that odds makers believe that many football handicappers will back GB on Sunday. I’m one of those football handicappers. Green Bay isn’t just a good bet to beat Philly on Sunday, but they’re a dynamite bet to win the whole enchilada at +1200 long shot odds to win Super Bowl 45. They beat the Eagles 27 to 20 this season. They should have beaten Atlanta, their likely second round opponent after they beat the Eagles this Sunday, on Nov. 28th in a 17 to 20 loss. They can handle the Saints or Bears and they almost upset the New England Patriots straight up as 14 point dogs, with QB Matt Flynn under center and not Aaron Rodgers, in 27 to 31 loss on Dec. 19th.

Stay Away From: Seattle Seahawks +8000

You have to love the long shot football betting odds to win Super Bowl 45 on Seattle, +8000, right? Actually, no. The ‘Hawks take on New Orleans this Saturday as 10 ½ point dogs. The Saints thumped them 34 to 19 in mid-November. Let’s say they get past the champs. Then, they face either #1 seeded Atlanta, a team that beat them 34 to 18 on Dec. 19th or the Chicago Bears. Sure, they beat the Bears this season, but the ‘Hawks victory over Chicago occurred way back in October and Da Bears are a much better team now than they were then. When the Arizona Cardinals made their Super Bowl run, they had a guy named Kurt Warner playing QB for them.

Who will Seattle have under center? Charlie Whitehurst or Matt Hasselbeck. The Seahawks have no shot to win Super Bowl 45.

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Super Bowl Odds Betting

January 5, 2011 in Superbowl

Enter the Wild Card Week ChallengeThe Indianapolis Colts are offering amazing long shot odds to win Super Bowl XLV. The Colts are at +1600 to win the Super Bowl making them the best bet, based on odds, in the sportsbook.

But Indy isn’t the only team that deserves some mentioning to win the AFC that’s going off at terrific betting odds. See below for the best teams on which to wager to win Super Bowl XLV at good, underdog, odds.

Best Long Shot Bet: Indianapolis Colts +1600

What’s up with the odds makers giving no respect to the Indianapolis Colts? Sure, they had to work their butts off to get into the playoffs but, lest we forget, the Colts were the NFL Preseason favorite to win the big game at +800. Now, football handicappers are getting Peyton and Co. at long shot odds to win Super Bowl XLV.

Indy has won 4 straight games including keeping 3 of the best rushing teams, the Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders and Tennessee Titans, to below 100 rushing yards in their last 3 games. Now, they take on a team in the New York Jets this weekend that’s rush heavy.

After that, the Colts most likely will travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers before battling either rival New England or the Baltimore Ravens. Indy is on the upswing and could be a tough team in the AFC Playoffs.

Second Best Long Shot Bet: Baltimore Ravens +1400

The Ravens take on the KC Chiefs this Saturday, January 8th, as -1 point favorites. They’re offering terrific long shot odds to win Super Bowl XLV because they will have to play every single game on the road this season unless the Jets upset two teams in a row.

Football handicappers shouldn’t let that fact preclude them from backing the Ravens in this game. Baltimore has won 4 games in a row straight up and probably should have beaten New England this season, #1 seeded in the NFC Atlanta, and Pittsburgh the last time they played the rival Steelers. Baltimore is a good wager at the given odds to win the Super Bowl on February 6th.

Stay Away From: New York Jets +2500

Yes, the Kansas City Chiefs is going off at the biggest long shot odds to win Super Bowl XLV in the sportsbook, but the Chiefs, at +4500, have a better shot to win the Super Bowl than the Jets in my opinion. KC has a decent QB in Matt Cassel who rarely makes mistakes and the top rushing offense in the NFL.

They also get at least one home game during the playoffs. The Jets have to play Indianapolis on the road this Saturday, then, should they win, take on New England in the second round. The Patriots beat the Jets 45 to 3 the last time the two teams met.

NYJ just isn’t playing very well right now while their opponent in the wildcard round, Indy, is playing well. I like the Colts to end the Jets’ dream early during the playoffs but even if NYJ gets past Indy, they have no shot versus the Patriots on the road.

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