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Monday Night Football Free Pick – Rams at Seahawks

December 12, 2011 in Free Picks

James Laurinaitis

James Laurinaitis is in for a big game tonight.

Seattle -10 vs St Louis

Wow! Another truly terrible Monday Night Game. I remember when this was the highlight of every NFL week, how could they let it come to this? Maybe Roger should get the MNF situation straightened out rather than running James Harrison out of the league.

What is there to handicap in this game? It’s Steven Jackson vs the Seahowks and SJax is getting +10. I don’t see how any reasonable person can make a decent case for the Rams tonight. Seattle is rested, at home and playing a “big game” for the last time of the season. Say what you want about Tavaris Jackson, but you’ve got to realize he’s OK at running this system and won’t need to do much to cover the spread tonight. I think it’s a blowout tonight. Hopefully I can cash this ticket by halftime and get in some Battlefield 3.

Tackle Props

J.Laurinaitis solo+assist tackles ov 7½ -115:
There won’t be many tackle props posted for tonight’s game, but this is a no-brainer. JLau is a solid LB and if he gets enough opportunities he’ll put up huge numbers. Seattle is clearly better and they’ll run the ball often and rely on a short passing attack, which means JLau covers the number before we reach the 4th quarter. Seattle also has a stat crew that awards plenty of assists. Jump on it fast, this line will jump up quickly.

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St Louis Rams vs Seattle Seahawks Betting Preview

December 12, 2011 in Guest Blogger

The St. Louis Rams haven’t fared well for their fans or for bettors so far this season, and they could be in for yet another loss on Monday night when they play on the road against the division-rival Seattle Seahawks (8:30pm ET, ESPN).

The Rams are tied with the Minnesota Vikings for the worst record in the NFC at 2-10, and they’re ahead of only the winless Indianapolis Colts in the overall league standings right now. And St. Louis has also been the worst wager in the NFL this season, covering the oddsmakers’ posted spread in just two of their 12 games.

As well, with just 140 points scored through a dozen games the Rams have the worst offense in all of football this season – an offense that was blanked by the 49ers in San Francisco last time out to run the team’s losing streak to three games.

A.J. Feeley got the start in place of Sam Bradford (ankle) in the team’s 26-0 loss to San Francisco on Sunday, completing just 12 of 22 pass attempts for 156 yards and one interception. Feeley, though, broke his thumb in that game, which could force the team to press Bradford back into action – or go with a third-string option.

Steven Jackson was held to just 19 yards rushing on 10 carries against the Niners, while Brandon Lloyd was held to just 34 yards receiving on one catch in the game.

St. Louis started their current three-game skid back in Week 11 at home against the Seahawks, losing that game 24-7 behind a weak performance from Bradford – 20 of 40 passing for 181 yards with one touchdown strike and one interception.

Jackson ran for 42 yards on 15 carries in that game, with Lloyd catching five balls for 67 yards and a score in the losing cause.

Seahawks quarterback Tarvaris Jackson was good on 14 of 24 pass attempts for 148 yards in that win over the Rams, with one touchdown pass and two interceptions. Marshawn Lynch and Justin Forsett each ran for scores against St. Louis that day, with Sidney Rice catching a touchdown pass in the second quarter.

Seattle picked up a win last weekend as well, beating the Eagles 31-14 at home to improve to 5-7 straight up and 7-4-1 against the spread on the season. The Seahawks still have quite a bit of work to do to get into contention for a Wild Card berth in the NFC this season, and the NFC West division title is now out of reach.

Jackson went just 13 of 16 for 190 yards for the Seahawks against the Eagles, with one touchdown pass and no interceptions. Lynch, though, managed to rush for 148 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries, while Golden Tate had the TD reception.

Seattle had been listed as a 3-point road underdog in their first game of the season against St. Louis, and winning that game outright put them at 4-1 straight up and 4-1 against the spread over the past five meetings between the teams. For totals bettors, the OVER/UNDER went 1-4 in those five contests.

St. Louis’ uncertain quarterback situation kept the Monday night matchup off the betting board early this week; check back at Oddsmaker for the opening line and total for the game along with the complete list of odds for this week in the NFL.

Thursday Night Free Pick – Seahawks vs Eagles

December 1, 2011 in Free Picks

Seattle +3 vs Philadelphia

Seahawk's Earl Thomas

Seattle is the Thursday Night Pick

Why are the Eagles favored tonight? Does everyone still think they’re sooo talented? I guess so. Vince Young may have had a couple good fantasy games, but he’s still VINCE YOUNG and has no idea where the ball’s going. Now, Seattle is not exactly a good team, but they’re decent at home going 3-1 ATS as a home dog. Philly has a short week, long trip and they’re ready to declare BUST on their 2012 Super Bowl or Bust adventure.

It’s not a tough game to handicap. Both teams will try to run the ball on offense and sellout to stop the run defensively. LeSean McCoy will have a good game, but I doubt Carroll will allow him to decide the game. I’d certainly give the edge to Tavaris Jackson in the passing game even without Sidney Rice. TJ is a much better game manager and capable of running the gameplan effectively, which will be to expose the Eagle LBs. There’s no telling what Vince Young will do, but he’ll have to convert 3rd downs and protect the ball. I’m betting, literally, on Jackson to be better. Pick: Seahawks

VegasInsider.com’s Chris David gives his viewpoint from the total aspect, “The total on this game opened up at 44 ½ and it’s since dropped to 43 ½ and 43 at most shops. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the number go lower. The Eagles haven’t seen a total lower than 43 ½ points all season, which tells you something right there. With Young at quarterback, and injuries abound, the Eagles’ offense have put up 17 and 20 points the last two weeks.”

David believes that Seattle’s underrated defense is another reason to look at playing the ‘under’ on Thursday, “You can make a case that the Seahawks’ defense is just as good if not better than Philadelphia’s last two opponents, New York and New England. Seattle has watched the ‘under’ go 6-5 this season and 4-2 the last six weeks. During this span, the team has allowed 18.3 PPG and if you take out defensive scores, the number drops to 16 PPG.”

Everyone knows I favor Under plays and that’s the smart informed bet tonight. David hits on several important points and I’ll add another. Philly has struggled at LB all season and Seattle should be able to convert 3rd downs in the running/short passing attack, which will shorten the game. Both teams are missing big play receivers too. I love ugly games. Under 43.5