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Thursday Night Free Pick – Seahawks vs Eagles

December 1, 2011 in Free Picks

Seattle +3 vs Philadelphia

Seahawk's Earl Thomas

Seattle is the Thursday Night Pick

Why are the Eagles favored tonight? Does everyone still think they’re sooo talented? I guess so. Vince Young may have had a couple good fantasy games, but he’s still VINCE YOUNG and has no idea where the ball’s going. Now, Seattle is not exactly a good team, but they’re decent at home going 3-1 ATS as a home dog. Philly has a short week, long trip and they’re ready to declare BUST on their 2012 Super Bowl or Bust adventure.

It’s not a tough game to handicap. Both teams will try to run the ball on offense and sellout to stop the run defensively. LeSean McCoy will have a good game, but I doubt Carroll will allow him to decide the game. I’d certainly give the edge to Tavaris Jackson in the passing game even without Sidney Rice. TJ is a much better game manager and capable of running the gameplan effectively, which will be to expose the Eagle LBs. There’s no telling what Vince Young will do, but he’ll have to convert 3rd downs and protect the ball. I’m betting, literally, on Jackson to be better. Pick: Seahawks

VegasInsider.com’s Chris David gives his viewpoint from the total aspect, “The total on this game opened up at 44 ½ and it’s since dropped to 43 ½ and 43 at most shops. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the number go lower. The Eagles haven’t seen a total lower than 43 ½ points all season, which tells you something right there. With Young at quarterback, and injuries abound, the Eagles’ offense have put up 17 and 20 points the last two weeks.”

David believes that Seattle’s underrated defense is another reason to look at playing the ‘under’ on Thursday, “You can make a case that the Seahawks’ defense is just as good if not better than Philadelphia’s last two opponents, New York and New England. Seattle has watched the ‘under’ go 6-5 this season and 4-2 the last six weeks. During this span, the team has allowed 18.3 PPG and if you take out defensive scores, the number drops to 16 PPG.”

Everyone knows I favor Under plays and that’s the smart informed bet tonight. David hits on several important points and I’ll add another. Philly has struggled at LB all season and Seattle should be able to convert 3rd downs in the running/short passing attack, which will shorten the game. Both teams are missing big play receivers too. I love ugly games. Under 43.5

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Monday Night Free Pick – Bears vs Eagles

November 7, 2011 in Free Picks

Lesean McCoy

LeSean McCoy is the key to tonight's game.

This a huge game for both teams and a very difficult handicap. These are two up-n-down teams with QBs that can light it up or burn it down. I think Philly has more talent, but I don’t trust them to play together against anyone except Dallas. Chicago seems to thrive in chaotic games thanks to their special teams/defensive take-aways and this game has chaos written all over it. So, the Bears +7.5 looks pretty good, but I’m going to pass on it. Something tells tells me the Eagles are going to be able to run the ball tonight and control the clock like they did last week.

The Bears have struggled all season in their passing game and if they can’t get 3rd down conversions this game will go Under 47, which is my bet for the night. The two most likely scenarios in this game both point to a Under game… Cutler struggles in the passing game and LeSean McCoy see’s lot of action.

Urlacher and Briggs both project out at around 9 tackles tonight as the Eagles provide the 2nd most tackle opportunities in the league. Urlacher’s number is almost always higher than Briggs, so you should see some value in Lance this week. Don’t be scared to play both over if you get a good price on a number like 7.

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Sunday Night Betting Trends – Cowboys vs Eagles

October 30, 2011 in Free Picks

Here’s a guest blogger post from the guys at WagerWeb (100% deposit bonus).  Be sure to check back tomorrow around lunch time, I’ll have free picks and props posted for the Monday Night Game.

Lesean McCoy

Can LeSean McCoy get loose against Dallas tonight?

The Sunday night game this week is a big one for both Dallas and Philadelphia, as certainly neither team expected to be below .500 after Week 8 and the playoff hopes for both – especially the Eagles – would take a big blow with a defeat.

A 34-7 rout of the Rams that got the Cowboys back on track after two utterly devastating losses in consecutive games to the Lions and Patriots. The Rams are so bad that we learned nothing from this particular outcome, other than that DeMarco Murray is quite effective when no defender touches him. Murray rushed for a franchise-record 253 yards with one touchdown in the win. Murray’s rushing yards are the second-most in a game by a rookie in NFL history, as Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson holds the rookie and all-time record with 296 yards on November 4, 2007.

Regardless of whether or not you deem that performance a fluke, you can count on the Eagles seeing a whole lot of Murray on Sunday Night. The Eagles have been less than impressive defending the run in 2011, giving up 124 yards rushing per game and 4.8 yards per attempt. Their technique and alignment (wide nine at the end position) tends to create natural creases to run through. Look for Cowboys coach Jason Garrett to control the tempo of the game with Murray and Tashard Choice between the tackles. Cowboys QB Tony Romo has a 111.7 passer rating in his last five wins in the series, compared with 39.7 in two losses during that span

The Eagles are the NFL’s best rushing team, part by design. The other part is Michael Vick, improvisational scrambler. Last December, the Cowboys limited Vick to a 2010 season-low 16 rushing yards. But the Eagles’ other ground threat, running back LeSean McCoy, gashed them for a 149 yards in a 30-27 road win at Cowboys Stadium. The Eagles are averaging 170.0 rushing yards through six games. Vick has 372 of their 1,020 yards and averaging a league-best 8.4 yards. . McCoy is averaging 5.4 yards per carry with six touchdowns, and his 569 rushing yards rank seventh in the league. He’s also second with 51 carries of at least 10 yards since 2010. Dallas has the NFL’s top rush defense.

Vick has developed into a better pocket passer since becoming a starter again in 2010. Last year he threw a career-high 21 touchdowns and already has nine in 2011, with a few of his eight interceptions coming off tipped passes. The Philly offensive line has struggled in protection, and Vick is averaging 5.54 yards per pass attempt against the blitz. But given time, he can pick apart Dallas’ secondary.

Given its 12-0 record following bye weeks under Andy Reid, Philadelphia could have a leg up in this one.

  • WAGERWEB.COM BETTING LINE — Eagles -3.5 (49.5)
  • RECORD VS. SPREAD — Dallas 3-2-1; Philadelphia 2-4
  • SERIES RECORD — Cowboys lead 56-44
  • LAST MEETING — Cowboys beat Eagles 14-13, Jan. 2, 2011
  • LAST WEEK — Cowboys beat Rams 34-7; Eagles had bye
  • COWBOYS OFFENSE — OVERALL (6), RUSH (12), PASS (4)
  • COWBOYS DEFENSE — OVERALL (7), RUSH (1), PASS (14)
  • EAGLES OFFENSE — OVERALL (3), RUSH (1), PASS (8)
  • EAGLES DEFENSE — OVERALL (13), RUSH (23), PASS (10)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES — Cowboys have won four of last five meetings, including playoff game on Jan. 9, 2010. … Two teams have combined to win 23 of possible 39 NFC East titles. … Dallas 4-4 at Lincoln Financial Field. … Cowboys played 11 straight games decided by four points or less before routing Rams. … Dallas QB Tony Romo has thrown touchdown in club-record 21 straight games. … Cowboys coach Jason Garrett 8-5 since being promoted from offensive coordinator midway through last season. … LB DeMarcus Ware has 11½ sacks versus Eagles. … TE Jason Witten has 91 receptions for 1,053 yards and seven TDs in 16 games vs. Philadelphia. … Cowboys 6-2 on Oct. 30. … Eagles RB LeSean McCoy has 918 yards from scrimmage in last seven division games. … QB Michael Vick has run for a TD in four of last six home games. … Eagles looking for first win at home. They’re 0-2. … WR DeSean Jackson had career-long 91-yard TD catch and career-best 210 yards receiving in win at Dallas last season. … Eagles DE Trent Cole and LT Jason Peters will start after missing two games apiece with injuries.

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