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Falcons vs Saints Betting Preview

December 26, 2011 in NFL Previews

ATLANTA FALCONS (9-5) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (11-3)

Wager Web Point Spread & Total: New Orleans -7 (even) & 52.5
Opening Line & Total: Saints -7.5 & 53.5

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The Saints look to celebrate the holidays with an NFC South title when they host the rival Falcons on Monday night. New Orleans has won six consecutive games (SU and ATS), while Atlanta is 4-1 SU (2-1-2 ATS) in its past five contests.

These teams have played three straight games decided by a field goal, including Atlanta’s overtime win in New Orleans last season (which came courtesy of a 29-yard overtime miss by Saints K Garrett Hartley). Atlanta is coming off back-to-back wins and its passing game is clicking now that the team is finally healthy. The Falcons will likely rely on RB Michael Turner again (102 rushing YPG vs. Saints the last three seasons). The Saints should be able to beat Atlanta’s mediocre secondary. QB Drew Brees has been on fire lately, and has also surpassed 300 yards in his past three games against the Falcons.

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Although the Falcons lost in overtime to the Saints on Nov. 13, QB Matt Ryan still threw for a career-high 351 yards in that narrow defeat. He has 242 passing YPG, 5 TD and 1 INT in his past three meetings with New Orleans. Ryan has been in quite a zone over the past five weeks, throwing for 278 YPG with 12 TD and 2 INT. WR Roddy White has been the main beneficiary of Ryan’s hot hand, piling up 537 receiving yards and 5 TD in these five contests. The Saints have had difficulty stopping White in the past, as he has tallied 829 yards and seven touchdowns in 13 career games against New Orleans. And the Saints pass defense has not shut down anybody this year, allowing the fifth-most passing yards in the NFL (256 YPG).

Brees continues to have a monster season, with 16 TD and 0 INT in his past five games. His production indoors has been off the charts, as he has completed 73% of his passes for 8.3 YPA, 25 TD and 3 INT when throwing with a roof over his head. He has also loved facing the Falcons in his career, beating them nine out of 12 times and throwing for 297 YPG, 23 TD and 10 INT in these dozen meetings. Somewhat lost in the gaudy passing attack for New Orleans is a running game that has been very good over the past four weeks (145 YPG on 5.0 YPC). Atlanta’s usually stingy run defense has been porous in the past three weeks, allowing 145 rushing YPG on a whopping 6.7 yards per carry.

Both teams have done a great job protecting the football, as Atlanta has two straight giveaway-free games and New Orleans had a string of four consecutive turnover-less contests before its two giveaways last week.

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Falcons are Monday Night’s Free Pointspread Pick

December 27, 2010 in Free Picks

Thanks for visiting the site. We have been posting the Thursday & Monday Night games for free all season. You will see that I like playing the defensive tackle props on these featured games and have done well with them all year. Please feel free to comment at the forum.

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ATLANTA (-2.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS
This is what MNF used to be like every week, a big game. It’ll be 2 of the 3 legitimate NFC contenders facing off in Atlanta. Matty Ryan is apparently superman in the Georgia Dome according to all the NFL talking heads, but New Orleans is 10-4 and did win the Superbowl last year. New Orleans is getting healthy with Bush and Thomas back, plus they’ve got the best commercial going on the NFL Network (the youtube thing) If you’re a believer in the Saints this is a no-brainer, as whoever wins should assert themselves as the team to beat in the NFC and this is a chance to drive a stake through the Falcons little heart. I’m going with the Falcons, however. Atlanta looks like they’ve captured the Saints magic from last year and they’re clicking better on offense. Atlanta locks up the #1 seed in the NFC. Pick: Falcons

Jonathan Vilma Over 8½ tackles+assists -115: Honestly, I think Vilma is over-rated, but he’s good enough to post big stats when the opportunity is there. Atlanta is a near lock to provide more than 50 tackle chances & Vilma racked up 11 in their first meeting.

Stephen Nicholas Under 6 tackles+assists -155: Hmmm. What to do? -155 is a steep price, but Sean Weatherspoon is a back and is replacing Nicholas as the start this week. New Orleans is a excellent matchup for OLBs when Bush and Thomas are healthy, they are. So whoever is in this spot could cover this number by halftime. But it’ll be hard to do with limited playing time/snaps.

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Dallas Cowboys vs Arizona Cardinals Betting Trends

December 25, 2010 in NFL Week 16

Pheonix Cardinals

Can the Cards keep the score down tonight?

Football betting aficionados know that the Arizona Cardinals are playing out the string, and trying a rookie quarterback, while the Dallas Cowboys at least have some swagger at this time of the year, and on Christmas the two shall meet. Game time is set for 7:30 PM ET on Saturday at University of Phoenix Stadium (natural turf) in Glendale, AZ. The Cowboys, the road club, are priced as the seven-point favorites in the football betting odds, with the total posted at 44.5 points.

Dallas Cowboys (5-9 SU, 6-8 ATS) at Arizona Cardinals (4-10 SU & ATS)
Live at University of Phoenix Stadium
Glendale, AZ
Saturday, December 25 — 7:30 PM ET
TV:   NFL Network

Football Betting Odds:
Dallas  -7
Arizona +7
Total  44.5

Here are some of the trends as they impact football betting on this game:

·         Dallas has played its last eleven games OVER the total
·         Dallas has lost ten of its last 15 games SU
·         Dallas has won four of its last six games SU
·         Dallas has played four of its last five road games OVER the total
·         Arizona has played four of its last five games UNDER the total
·         Arizona has lost eight of its last nine games SU
·         Arizona has covered one of its last six games
·         Arizona has played six of its last eight home games OVER the total
·         Arizona has lost four of its last five home games SU
·         Arizona has covered one of its last five home games

John Skelton, the rookie quarterback out of Fordham, will get another start for the Cards against the Cowboys on Saturday. Thus far it’s been kind of rough, as Skelton has completed only 32 of 70 passes for 342 yards and has committed two turnovers (one fumble, one interception). Still, they have to try him to see what he can do.

These teams used to play twice a year, and it was a colorful rivalry. Both were part of the geographically-incorrect NFC East at the time, and Dallas is still there, but since Arizona moved to the West, they played last in 2008. Dallas has covered four of the last five meetings in the football betting odds.

The Cowboys have also covered five of their six games since Jason Garrett took over as interim coach. His team has averaged 32 points a game during that time. Dallas has been able to get its running game going rather nicely, with 134 yards in last week’s contest against Washington, and they have outgained the opposition by a wide margin on the ground.

Here are the head-to-head football betting trends that have a bearing on this game:

·         Dallas has covered four of the last five meetings
·         Five of the last seven meetings have gone UNDER the total
·         Dallas has won 18 of the last 25 meetings SU
·         Arizona has won five of the last six meetings SU as the home team
·         Four of the last six meetings in Arizona have gone UNDER the total

I think Arizona is at the stage right now in its season where it has to figure out some options for next year. Obviously they were not diligent enough to find a real solution to the quarterback problem after Kurt Warner retired. So it was Matt Leinart, who was cut, then Derek Anderson. They have really suffered in the football betting odds, covering just four of 14 games. Now they have to figure out whether they need to draft a quarterback, sign a free agent, or make a trade.

Dallas has now played eleven straight games over the total. But maybe you figure that streak could be in jeopardy with the rookie quarterback on the other side. You might be onto something, since there really has not been someone so inexperienced under center for an opponent. But even inept quarterbacks have helped these totals go over, as the Cowboys have allowed a point for every 13 yards gained by the opposition. Did you realize that Dallas, when it plays in this part of the country, usually gets an awful lot of fan support? That probably goes back to the days when the Valley of the Sun was without an NFL team. We’re going over on the total, at 44.5 points in the football betting odds.

PLAY:  OVER 44.5 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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Carolina Panthers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Pointspread Free Pick

December 23, 2010 in NFL Week 16

Mike Goodsen

Can Mike Goodsen? Bring down the Mighty Steelers

It’s Thursday Night Football on the NFL Network and we have your live NFL betting odds for the matchup between the Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers. The struggling Panthers are coming off a win at home, while the Steelers lost a close one to the Jets at Heinz Field. The Steelers host the Panthers as they try to lock up a playoff spot in the competitive AFC.

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Thursday, December 23 @ 8:20pm on NFL Network

Carolina Panthers (-13.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (+13.5)
Total: 37

These teams have only played each other twice since 2002, so we will need to break down recent play, stats and odds to handicap this matchup. Pittsburgh holds the edge in all the important categories except for kicking and penalties.

This is because Panthers kickers get a lot more practice, and the Steelers defense is uber-aggressive. While that does turn into penalty yardage, it will also turn into a hellish day for Jimmy Clausen under center.

Coming into last week’s game against the Jets, Pittsburgh had won 5 of their previous 6 matchups – hitting the Under 4 times with their bruising defense and grinding style of play. Their physical presence on the field and steady play from Ben Roethlisberger

While the Panthers are only 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games, they might actually be worse than that suggests. They are only averaging 13.1 points/game and are giving up 25.0. They are winless on the road and have only covered 4 times this season (as massive underdogs).

The Steelers are scoring just under 22 points/game, and limited opponents to 15.7. The Panthers strength comes on the ground with Jonathan Stewart and Mike Goodson – but they will be up against the league’s best rushing defense.

Pittsburgh only gives up 63.4 yards/game and will be daring Clausen to pass the ball. Clausen has 2TDs to 7 INTs on the year, and the interceptions will definitely be up after this game.

This is a big statement game for the 10-4 Steelers as they gun for top spot in the AFC North. With the Ravens playing against the Browns, Pittsburgh will be under pressure to win this game.

Live NFL Odds Free Pick: Take this line before it gets up to -14. The Steelers are more than two touchdowns better than the Panthers. Last week was a winnable game for Carolina and they came out like it was a playoff game. They will be severely outmatched by Pittsburgh in prime time and will be out of this game during the first half.

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New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons Betting Trends

December 22, 2010 in NFL Week 16

NFL BettingNo game will be more exciting to watch this weekend than the battle between the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons in the NFL Game of the Week.

Right now, the Falcons are deserving -2.5 favorites at home. At 10-4 ATS this season, it’s hard to stomach a bet against the rock steady Falcons. Can the Saints cause a riot on the NFL betting line?

We have all been waiting for the bubble to burst on the Falcons. They simply seem like an overachieving team on paper. I mean, Matt Ryan is just a third-year quarterback and his best receivers are Roddy White and an aging Tony Gonzalez.

For those of us who bet on the NFL, this doesn’t feel like a team that should be 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS, and that’s part of the reason they’re being sold short by the general public.

Think about it for a second: we’ve been so enamored by the tenacity of the Steelers, the thrilling punch of the New England Patriots, the inevitable collapse of the Minnesota Vikings, the fall and rise of the Dallas Cowboys, the incredible turn around of one Michael Vick, the up-and-downs of Mark Sanchez and the struggles of the Indianapolis Colts that the Atlanta Falcons have virtually gone unnoticed.

Even with the NFL’s Game of the Week on hand in Week 16, the Falcons are still not making headlines or being touted as heavily as they should be. Even looking at their odds, they’re not getting the respect they deserve.

In their opening game of the year, the Falcons were brutalized by an inspired Steelers defense and lost 9-15 as -1.5 point favorites (largely because Big Ben wasn’t on the field). Over a month later, they lost as +1.5 dogs to the Philadelphia Eagles in their worst game of the year by a score of 17-31.

The Falcons have also lost against the spread when facing a -7.0 home line against San Francisco, a game they won 16-14. Two weeks after losing to Philadelphia, they were able to outmuscle the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a 27-21 victory, but failed to cover a -10.0 line in NFL betting.

Against playoff contenders this year, they’ve either lost outright or won by an average margin of 4.2 points per game. So what does that say about them as they prepare for Monday Night against a New Orleans team which is beginning to peak late in the season?

The metrics actually don’t say anything.

This team is flat out elite. Nobody can argue that. What makes them great is their ability to grind out the opposition with clock-munching drives. When they need big plays, like they did in a comeback victory against Baltimore, they can find the will to win.

Atlanta and Matt Ryan beat the New Orleans Saints 27-24 in Week 3 so a win this weekend would put them one step closer to sweeping the NFC betting South. They face Carolina in Week 17 in a game nobody expects them to lose. Sweeping the division is a great boost for a team that struggled with injuries one year ago, but sweeping the Super Bowl Champions would be massive. There’s a reason this game deserves to be the NFL Game of the Week.

The Saints began the season as the worst cover team in football. Starting the year at a quiet 3-2 SU and 0-5 ATS , they would need a big game against Tampa Bay to earn their first cover of the year.

Their follow-up performance was a decisive loss to the Cleveland Browns 17-30 as -12.5 favorites. Like New England, the Saints would use their loss to the Browns as a wake up call and tear off six straight victories while going 4-2 ATS with Dallas and Cincinnati both forcing covers.

Unlike Atlanta, the Saints have had myriad injuries to deal with. Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush have missed a combined 17 games this season and with neither able to play, their rushing attack simply hasn’t been the same.

The 5-9 ATS record of the Saints doesn’t necessarily reflect how much they’ve been underachieving this year as much as they’ve just been a one-trick pony and depleted in the rushing game.

Now they’re at full strength, and hanging tough with Baltimore on the road was a huge testament to how playoff ready this team is. The Saints still have plenty to prove to the NFC and the conference-leading Falcons. The fact that the oddsmakers have already taken a half-point away from the home-bound Falcons in this game is a clear indication that the Saints are not to be taken lightly.

Still, any time we collectively begin to take Atlanta lightly they come through in the clutch. The Saints are a high-powered offensive team that can push Atlanta to its limits. If the Falcons are truly a Super Bowl XLV contender like we think they are, they’ll prove it in the NFL Game of the Week.

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