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Thursday Night Free Pick – Jets vs Broncos

November 17, 2011 in Free Picks

NY Jets -6 at Denver

Shonn Greene
Shonn Greene is the key to tonight’s game.

Honestly, I don’t know how reasonable handicapper can take the Broncos’ side with much confidence. I’m not saying they won’t cover, but it’s just hard to come up with solid reasons why. If you like the Broncos, it’s for one of three reasons…

  1. You like the home dog theory.
  2. The Jets are traveling on a short week.
  3. Tebow is simply a winner.

It’s hard to argue that Denver is actually a better team, they’re not. I’m not a huge Jets fan, but they’re run defense has been solid lately and I think that’ll be enough to win this game. John Fox’s odd presser about Tebow not running a normal offense was some kind of smoke-screen and Denver might come out with wide open attack tonight. But the Jets two cornerbacks are still a big problem, enough to get Tebow in trouble.

The only thing that scares me about this game is NY’s travel itinerary, they’re 1-3 ATS this year in road games. But the one cover was against Buffalo a couple weeks ago in an important game and I think they can do it again tonight. Picks: Jets

If you’re a regular follower, you know I usually favor the Under and look for good situations for low scoring games. But not tonight. This game opened at 42 and it’s been bet down to 40, which offers us a good opportunity strictly from the value side of things.

There are a few injuries but RBs are mostly interchangeable, so that doesn’t bother me too much. The weather will be perfect. John Fox is good coach and he knows the difference between KC and NY when it comes to stopping rushing attacks. I’m betting, literally, that he opens things up tonight and comes up with a plan that attacks the middle of NY’s pass defense. I doubt it will lead to victory, but Denver will probably the move the ball tonight. The Jets are going to pound the rock all night and Denver really hasn’t faced a team with a good rushing attack lately. Pick: Over 40. This is also a good opportunity to parlay the Jets -6 with Over 40.

Please check out NFL Picks Pro for this weekends games.

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NY Jets vs Buffalo Bills Betting Trends – Week 9

November 6, 2011 in Guest Blogger

WagerWeb

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The Buffalo Bills were supposed to be one of the NFL’s worst teams this year. Instead, a win Sunday could potentially give them sole possession of first in the AFC East (depending on if the Patriots lose) and a sweep of their in-state brethren after beating the Giants earlier this season.

NFL Week 9 Premium Picks are available for only $10

The Jets enter off a bye but have lost both games following their bye since Rex Ryan took over before the 2009 season and entered this year’s week off with consecutive wins, including 27-21 over San Diego on Oct. 23.

In those back-to-back wins, the Jets averaged 133 yards a game on the ground. Buffalo has been average defending the run, yielding 120 yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry. Jets offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer should add a few wrinkles, getting the ball to featured back Shonn Greene and 11-year veteran LaDainian Tomlinson in the running game.

David Harris

The Bills are coming off their most impressive defensive showing of the year after limiting the Redskins to 178 yards while registering 10 sacks (after entering that game with a total of four). Buffalo is still ranked 26th defensively, so the Jets can do damage … if they protect the ball. The Bills’ 18 takeaways lead the league, and their plus-9 turnover ratio tops the AFC. They picked off six passes the last time they beat Gang Green in 2009, and QB Mark Sanchez can still get a little wild. But he’s only been intercepted once in the last three games and tends to ratchet up his play in bigger games … and this one could ultimately determine a lot in the AFC East.

Keep an eye on Jets OLB Aaron Maybin. Jettisoned by the Bills in August, Maybin is becoming a force on sub packages. Despite being a role player, he leads the league with three forced fumbles and has managed three sacks; the 2009 first-round pick notched none with Buffalo. He’ll likely be further motivated to make a mark Sunday, especially while working against a line missing starting LT Demetrius Bell. It’s worth noting that Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick will play with a sore chest but has plenty of checkdown options, notably RB Fred Jackson, at his disposal to try and negate Jets blitzers.

New York Jets wide receiver Plaxico Burress is questionable for the game with a lower back pain. Ryan said Burress is sore but remains hopeful his wide receiver will play against the Bills.

“He’s sore. We think he’ll be fine,” Ryan said of Burress, who was limited in Friday’s practice. “Hopefully he’s feeling good when we play on Sunday.”

Defensive linemen Mike DeVito (knee) and Kenrick Ellis (left ankle), and defensive back Isaiah Trufant (hamstring) were also limited at practice Friday and listed as questionable. Ryan says if the game against the Bills were Friday, it’s likely neither DeVito nor Ellis would play.

  • WAGERWEB.COM ONLINE BETTING ODDS — Bills -2 (44)
  • NFL FOOTBALL BETS RECORD VS. SPREAD — New York 3-4; Buffalo 5-1-1
  • SERIES RECORD — Bills lead 54-47
  • LAST MEETING — Jets beat Bills 38-7, Jan. 2, 2011
  • LAST WEEK — Jets had bye; Bills beat Redskins 23-0 at Toronto
  • JETS OFFENSE — OVERALL (29), RUSH (28), PASS (22)
  • JETS DEFENSE — OVERALL (8), RUSH (25), PASS (7)
  • BILLS OFFENSE — OVERALL (10), RUSH (5), PASS (13)
  • BILLS DEFENSE — OVERALL (26), RUSH (20), PASS (24)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES —Last season, Jets outscored Buffalo by combined 76-21 in two games, while totaling 549 yards rushing. … Jets have lost first three road games for first time since 2007, when they opened 0-5 on road and finished 1-7. … In past three games against Bills, QB Mark Sanchez is 48 of 84 for 540 yards, with six TDs and one interception. … With 602 catches, LaDainian Tomlinson is nine short of passing Keith Byars for third on the NFL list among RBs. … CB Darrelle Revis — called by Jets coach Rex Ryan as “best player in football,” this week — has three interceptions in past two games against Buffalo. … Bills have won first four “home” games (including last week at Toronto), and have chance to match best home start since 1995. … Have opened season by scoring 20 or more points in first seven games for first time since an eight-game streak in 2002. … Bills defense jumped 10 spots to 20th in NFL’s rushing yards allowed rankings after limiting Redskins to 26 yards. … Buffalo allowed 200 yards rushing eight times last season, but has allowed 135 or more twice this year. … Bills averaging AFC-best 30.1 points per game. … With 46 TD passes in two-plus seasons in Buffalo, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is two short of passing Doug Flutie for fifth on team list. … Bills’ 10 sacks against Redskins were second-most in team history. … Bills have NFL-leading 14 interceptions — three more than all of last year — and have scored 82 points off of 18 takeaways.

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New York Jets (11-5) at Indianapolis Colts (10-6) Pointspread Free Pick

January 5, 2011 in NFL Playoffs

Enter the Wild Card Week ChallengeBacking the Indianapolis Colts to cover the spread versus the New York Jets in the sportsbook is one of the best NFL wild card predictions a pigskin handicapper can make for the weekend.

68% of football handicappers are backing the Colts to cover the less than 3-point spread in their game versus NYJ on Saturday. Although Jets’ coach Rex Ryan firmly believes that his fellas will win the Super Bowl, so far neither the odds makers nor gamblers are backing up Ryan’s assessment.

Can Indy ride their late regular season winning wave to a victory over the New York Jets and a cover in the sportsbook on January 8th?

New York Jets (11-5) at Indianapolis Colts (10-6)

Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
When: Jan. 8th, 2011 at 8:05 pm EST
TV: NBC

NFL Betting Line

New York Jets +2 ½ -110 O 44 ½ -110
Indianapolis Colts -2 ½ -110 U 44 ½ -110

Check out some trends in this game.

  • The New York Jets are 5 and 1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of ½ to 3 points.
  • The New York Jets are 4 and 0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
  • The Indianapolis Colts are 1 and 4 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
  • The Home team is 4 and 1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams.

According to the trends, NYJ should be one of the better NFL wild card predictions to cover the spread this weekend. After all, they do have the supposedly better defense and are coming off of a stunning 38 to 7 victory over the Buffalo Bills.

I should probably tell my editors, Sandeep or Reagen, to strike that word stunning from the paragraph above. I mean, how can anybody use the word stunning in regards to a victory over the injury-plagued Buffalo Bills?

Before beating the Bills, the vaunted Jets’ D had given up 38 points to the Chicago Bears, a team that most football fans believe has a distraught offensive line.

The Jets could only sack Bears’ QB Jay Cutler 2 times in that game for 13 yards even though the Bears gave up 6 sacks to Green Bay for 51 yards only a week later. The Jets must get pressure on QB Peyton Manning in order to have success on January 8th.

There are two reasons and both are equally important in me deciding to make the Colts to cover one of the best NFL wild card predictions of the weekend. The first reason is that the Jets likely aren’t going to be able to get to Manning often in this game.

Manning was sacked only 16 times during the regular season. That’s not a huge number and more often than not, Peyton read the blitz beautifully and delivered strikes to his wide receivers. How else to explain Manning throwing for 4,700 yards and 33 touchdowns during the regular season with both TE Dallas Clark and WR Austin Collie out of action for most of the season?

The other reason to love the Colts to cover in this game is the fact that Indy’s run defense has become amazingly good. The Colts haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in the past 3 games. In fact, they’ve shut down 3 very good rushing teams in a row the way that the Jets usually shut down a team’s rushing attack.

The Colts’ rush D easily makes them one of the best NFL wild card predictions to cover the spread on Saturday. Indy held Jacksonville and their terrific running back Maurice Jones-Drew to only 68 rushing yards as a team.

The Colts stopped both of Oakland’s awesome running backs, Darren McFadden and Michael Bush, by holding the Raiders to 80 total rushing yards. Finally, in Week 17, the Indianapolis Colts held Tennessee and arguably the most talented running back in the the NFL, Chris Johnson, to a measly 51 yards on 24 carries on the ground.

Because of the Jets’ inability to pressure Peyton Manning and the Colts’ ability to shut down the Jets’ rushing game, this is a no-brainer to me. The Indianapolis Colts should cover the 2 ½ points in the NFL sportsbook.

NFL Betting Pick: Indianapolis Colts -2 ½ -110

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