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Monday Night Football Free Pick – Steelers at 49ers

December 19, 2011 in Free Picks

Patrick Willis

Patrick Willis leads the Niners tonight.

This game has been off the board all week & not been an easy one to handicap due to the status of Ben R. There are some significant trends that point to the Steelers tonight, but I’m going to ignore them because this is not the same Niner crew we’ve seen in recent years.

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Both teams figure to run the ball often tonight and this will be a hard-nosed battle in the trenches. If you haven’t followed San Fran this year, you might be surprised to learn they’ve got the top rushing D in the NFL. Even if Big Ben plays it’s tough to see Pittsburgh scoring often without a realistic running threat to open up deep play-action passes.

Frank Gore is dinged up and only got 10 touches last week. Harbaugh eluded to other backs getting carries this week and it makes sense. San Fran needs Gore to be tip-top when the playoffs start and there’s no reason to risk him in tonight’s game. Even with Gore at 100% the Niner’s have struggled in the redzone, settling for too many FG attempts. I think this game will be viewed as opportunity by Harbaugh to change things up and give other playoff teams some things to think about. Alex Smith runs hot or cold… if he’s “on” tonight there’s a good chance to have some success against the Steeler D without their best pass rusher.

The biggest factor in the game tonight will be the 49er’s ability to shut down the Steeler run game and generated some pressure against a poor O-line. We’ve seen the Steelers go into hibernation with a backup QB before, and that’s certainly a possibility tonight. I have no doubt San Fran will play well and be competitive, that’s where my money is going. Pick: 49ers

Monday Night Free Pick – Giants vs Saints

November 28, 2011 in Free Picks

New Orleans Saints -7 vs New York Giants:

Jimmy Graham

Jimmy Graham is the key to tonight's game.

Finally a Monday Night game with some real meaning and single digit point spread.. Almost everything points to the Saints tonight…

  • Coming off a bye week.
  • Home on MNF.
  • Ahmad Bradshaw is out.
  • Saints 7-1 ATS in last 8 home games.

The Giants will show up tonight and play well, but this matchup is terrible for them. NY can create pressure without blitzing and that’s a huge advantage against most teams, but against Brees with two weeks to prepare? No.

New York will likely keep the game close, but they’ve got no answer for Jimmy Graham down the middle (3rd down conversions) and eventually New Orleans will take control of the game. Pick: Saints. The line has been moving, you’d be wise to shop for the extra half point whichever side you decide to play.

Tackle Props

Total Tackles & Assists – Roman Harper (NO) ov/un 7:
Harper projects to 7 and he’s a hit or miss type player. He’s not my favorite player, but he can put up stats in the right situation, which this is. If you can get +100 or better on the over take it, if not pass.

Monday Night Football Free Pick – Vikings at Packers

November 14, 2011 in Free Picks

Lambeau Field

Playoff weather at Lambeau Field

Green Bay -12.5 vs Minnesota

Surprisingly, there’s a lot of steam behind the Vikings this week as we’ve seen the line drop from 14 to 12.5. Well if you take a closer look it makes some sense, the Vikes are coming off their bye and expecting to play well against their divisional rival. Ponder has been playing better than expected, their defense is pressuring QB’s, and Peterson is… Peterson. Going back couple weeks and you’ll see these two played a close game which Minnesota actually won… against the spread.

Here’s the deal. The Packers defense was hyped early this year and hasn’t lived up to expectations, but the talent is still there. Tonight is sort of the starting point of Green Bay’s real season as cool weather arrives at Lambeau. I expect the Packers D to steal the show tonight as they get themselves ready for playoff football. Don’t forget Ponder is still a rookie and MNF at Green Bay is a brutal spot for any team, it could get ugly. Oh yeah, you still got Aaron Rodgers on your side too. Pick: Packers

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Monday Night Free Pick – Bears vs Eagles

November 7, 2011 in Free Picks

Lesean McCoy

LeSean McCoy is the key to tonight's game.

This a huge game for both teams and a very difficult handicap. These are two up-n-down teams with QBs that can light it up or burn it down. I think Philly has more talent, but I don’t trust them to play together against anyone except Dallas. Chicago seems to thrive in chaotic games thanks to their special teams/defensive take-aways and this game has chaos written all over it. So, the Bears +7.5 looks pretty good, but I’m going to pass on it. Something tells tells me the Eagles are going to be able to run the ball tonight and control the clock like they did last week.

The Bears have struggled all season in their passing game and if they can’t get 3rd down conversions this game will go Under 47, which is my bet for the night. The two most likely scenarios in this game both point to a Under game… Cutler struggles in the passing game and LeSean McCoy see’s lot of action.

Urlacher and Briggs both project out at around 9 tackles tonight as the Eagles provide the 2nd most tackle opportunities in the league. Urlacher’s number is almost always higher than Briggs, so you should see some value in Lance this week. Don’t be scared to play both over if you get a good price on a number like 7.

Monday Night Free Pick – Chargers vs Chiefs

October 31, 2011 in Free Picks

San Diego (-3) vs Kansas City

Malcolm Floyd

San Diego is the Monday Night Free Pick

I considered making this game one of my Premium Picks this week, but ended up going with Eagles instead. Hopefully this one turns out as well. The Chiefs certainly had a huge win last week on the road in Oakland, but if you look at more than the score it wasn’t that impressive. The Raiders were terrible at QB, throwing 6 INTs. I’ll give KC some credit for making the plays but I doubt we’ll see Rivers making many mistakes. My real concern with the Chiefs is their offense which did almost zilch last week, I expect they’ll struggle again this week as San Diego will work hard to limit Bowe.

San Diego’s second half last week is a real head-scratcher and makes me a little squeamish to pull the trigger tonight, but I think its a good bet. The Chargers have more weapons offensively and have shown glimpses of being a good team, which KC has not. I expect they’ll get it in gear tonight for a key divisional game and bring home an easy win. Pick: Chargers

Betting Lines from SportsBet

I also like Under 45 tonight. KC is offensively challenged and Rivers is not lighting it up like he has in the past. This is a huge game for both teams and that usually brings out the running games, which is what KC prefers anyway.

Tackle Prop

D.Johnson solo+assisted tackles ov 7½ (-110): This is the best bet of the night. Johnson put up 13 tackles last and I expect him to keep rolling against the Chargers, who provide the 3rd most tackle opportunities in the league. Inside LBs have posted 9 or more tackles in four of the Chargers six games and Johnson is better than most of those guys, so we should him close to the cover by halftime.

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Chargers vs Chiefs Preview

October 31, 2011 in Free Picks

Dexter McCluster

Can the Chief's win 4 straight?

The San Diego Chargers are sitting alone atop the AFC West but don’t believe they’re playing their best football.

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The Kansas City Chiefs feel like they’re finally starting to come around after an embarrassing start, but they haven’t really been tested lately.

The Chargers look to bounce back from a disappointing loss Monday night when they visit the Chiefs, who are trying to win their fourth in a row and claim a share of first place in the division.

San Diego (4-2), which saw its run of West titles end at four as Kansas City captured the crown last season, was in position to extend its winning streak to four last Sunday, leading the New York Jets 21-10 at halftime. The Chargers failed to score after the break, however, and Philip Rivers threw two fourth-quarter interceptions that led to the Jets’ last 10 points in a 27-21 road loss.

“We just need to play better and put a complete game together,” said Rivers, who finished with a season-low 179 passing yards. “We still haven’t put one together and we’re 4-2. You can look at that two ways: Obviously we’re not playing as good as we can and we’ve won four games, or we better put it together or we’re not going to get done what we want to get done.”

Rivers has clearly not been playing up to his potential.

The three-time Pro Bowler has seven touchdown passes to nine interceptions – four fewer than he had all of last season. He had no touchdowns and two interceptions in a 20-17 win over Kansas City on Sept. 25, a victory that started the Chargers’ three-game winning streak.

That loss was the Chiefs’ third straight to start the season, but they’ve rebounded by winning their last three. No team has started 0-3 and won its next four games since Pittsburgh in 2000.

Kansas City’s wins haven’t come against the NFL’s top competition, however. The Chiefs (3-3) have defeated last-place teams Minnesota and Indianapolis and beat an Oakland squad last Sunday that was unsettled at quarterback.

They intercepted both Kyle Boller and Carson Palmer three times in a 28-0 victory. It was the franchise’s first six-interception game since 1984 against Seattle and first road shutout since beating San Diego in 1973.

“The great part about what this team has done is we just continue to grind and take it one game at a time,” quarterback Matt Cassel said. “You can see us get better from the start of the season till now. Hopefully we’ll just continue to make progress. We know it’s a one-game season every week.”

Cassel had two interceptions against the Raiders – his first picks since throwing one to Eric Weddle at midfield with 55 seconds left in San Diego last month.

In that meeting, the Chiefs were playing their first game since All-Pro running back Jamaal Charles was put on injured reserve with a torn left ACL. Kansas City’s ground game was in flux and finished with a season-low 81 yards. It has since found some consistency behind Jackie Battle and is averaging 145.3 rushing yards during the winning streak.

Battle, who has run for 195 yards on 35 attempts in the last two games, will be facing a San Diego defense that has yielded 162 rushing yards in each of its last two contests.

Kansas City’s defense has also been susceptible against the run, ranking 25th in the league with 125.5 yards allowed per game. The Chargers’ Ryan Mathews rushed for 98 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries in last month’s matchup.

The Chiefs, 8-2 at home since the start of last season, have lost seven of eight to the Chargers, with the lone victory coming in a Monday night game at Arrowhead Stadium to open last season.

“We just have to keep believing,” Kansas City cornerback Brandon Flowers said. “We never bowed our head and thought the season was done like some people did. We just knew if we kept pushing, things would turn around for us. It’s going to be a great showdown Monday night.”

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Monday Night Free Pick – Ravens vs Jaguars

October 24, 2011 in Free Picks

Baltimore Ravens vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Here’s a guest blogger from SportBet.com, who takes a look at tonight’s game.  I usually post my Monday Night Football picks for free every week, but tonight’s game is part of the Premium Plays ($10). 

Ray Lewis

Ray Lewis and the Ravens KO the Jags tonight.

Monday night football this week will feature the Baltimore Ravens whom as of now are standing at 4-1 they will take on the Jacksonville jaguars whom are 1-5 and that game will take place at 8:30pm Eastern time and will be shown live Nationally on ESPN. Right now the books around the globe are saying that the Baltimore Ravens are favorites to win by nine points and the total is thirty-nine and a half so they are expecting the game to be a low scoring affair. For Jacksonville they will be looking to get of their losing skid which right now is at five and if we go by the points then come Monday they will lose their sixth straight game, shot one says that can happen for a college team due to the schedule they face but we are talking about a Professional team and one would figure that they would be better than to lose so many games in a row.

If we take a quick look at the points that the Jaguars have put on the scoreboard so far this season the max points they have scored in any game so far was on October 9th when they scored twenty points at home against the Cincinnati Bengals. Even the single game that they have won they produced a terrible performance for a humble sixteen points that allowed them to win 16-14 against the Tennessee Titans. If come this Monday their defense is not running on all cylinders they will get their butts kicked by a Ravens offense that shows no mercy when it comes to scoring on opponents. The scoring will all come down to Joe Flacco from the Ravens he so far this season has thrown 89 completions out of 173 attempts for 1278 yards for a total of seven touchdowns and has so far thrown four interceptions and lost four fumbles. The Quarterback for the Jaguars is Blaine Gabbert who is throwing for less than 50% so far with 60 completions out of 123 attempts for 717 yards four touchdowns and two interceptions. If the Jaguars are going to be able to move the ball up the field they will have to hope that Maurice Jones-Drew to keep running so far he has ran for 572 yards but a disappointing two touchdowns. The Jaguars will have to hope that their offense can at least keep them in the game for a little bit because if not it could turn out to be one ugly final score.

Monday Night Free Pick – Jets at Dolphins

October 17, 2011 in Free Picks

David Harris

In all honesty, this is one of my least favorite games of Week 6. (Let me get this out of the way first, I am not playing the Dolphins). I don’t trust the Jets right now, and I really don’t like the thought of giving up 7 points while relying on Mark Sanchez. There’s also a significant trend going against the Jets… winless team coming off byes (like Miami) are something like 22-8 ATS. But… I doubt many of those teams had a new QB like the Dolplhins will be running out there with Matt Moore. Finally, I know the Jets are a “desperate team” but I think they’re as likely to unravel as play well. So I don’t know which side to play.

I do like Under 42.5. The Jets need a win badly, so Ryan will want to rely on his defense and limit Sanchez’s opportunities for mistakes. The Dolphins will do the same for their new QB. Lots of rushing attack = low score tonight.

Tackle Props (NFL Prop Bets at SportBet)

D.Harris solo+assisted tackles ov 6½ -115
I’ll take Harris to cover 6.5 tonight because it is such low number for him. This game doesn’t figure to offer a lot of tackle opportunities as both QBs won’t be allowed to take many chances, which probably means a big game for the punters. This is hardly a lock, but it’s MNF… I got to play something or watch Dances with the Stars.

B.Scott solo+assisted tackles ov/un 6½
Tough call on Scott. I think Harris will have the better game based on the scheme and that means it’ll be difficult for Scott to rack up tackles unless Miami can convert some 3rd downs. I’d lean to the under, especially if it’s got a + next to it.

Monday Night Free Picks – Lions vs Bears

October 10, 2011 in Free Picks

I’m a little short on time today (GO Rangers!), but here’s a quick look at what I’m doing for tonight’s game.

Detroit -5.5 vs Chicago
Megatron and Stafford are getting all the attention, but don’t forget about the Lions defense. They’ve come up with the big stops everytime they’ve had too. Chicago has huge problems protecting Cutler and I think that’ll be the key to this game as Detroit’s front seven dominates the night. Just keep the ball away from Hester and Detroit rolls the Bears. Pick: Lions

B.Urlacher solo+assisted tackles ov 7½ (-115)
Urlacher is one of the guys I usually try to fade.  Sure he’s a great player, but he always gets bet to go over and that drives the value of betting against him.  Tonight however, I think they missed the number a bit.  Unless we get a crazy game… Urlacher should be into double digits easily. The Detroit stat keep was handing out plenty of assists in the Lions only home game this year and that’s enough to convince me Urlacher is worth taking at -125.  If he slides any higher you should take a pass though.

L.Briggs solo+assisted tackles un 7½ (+120)
Briggs projects out close to this number, but +120 is a decent value.

 

Monday Night Free Picks – Tampa vs Indianapolis

October 3, 2011 in Free Picks

Short and sweet for tonight’s game.  It won’t matter who plays QB for the Colts tonight, this is Tampa’s night to shine on the big stage of MNF.  The Bucs have not had a good start to the season, but they’ve got some talent and I’m betting (really) they get their offense ramped up tonight against Indy’s terrible defense.  The Colts burned me last week as they put up a fight against Pittsburgh, but not tonight.   Pick: Tampa -10

Tackle props are pretty thin so far, I’ll update later if a line gets released on some of the linebackers.  Angerer could have a HUGE game.