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NFL Week 17 – Broncos vs Chiefs Pointspread Free Pick

December 30, 2011 in Guest Blogger

  • What: NFL Betting
  • When: Sunday, January 1st, 4:15 PM ET
  • Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
  • Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +3
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Sports betting players are gearing up for the final week of the NFL regular season, and Denver is one of those teams that are in the hunt for the playoffs. A win will get them in, but the Broncos have to deal with a Kansas City team that has Denver’s former starter at quarterback, and along with their defense, the Chiefs will make the playoff picture more interesting.

Why Bet On Kansas City Chiefs (6-9 SU, 8-7 ATS)

A week after the Chiefs ended Green Bay’s run at an undefeated season, they fell 16-13 in overtime to Oakland in a sloppy game that featured four turnovers (two by each team) and 26 flags (Kansas City was penalized 11 times for 88 yards). Kyle Orton was 21-of-36 for 300 yards and a touchdown, but he was also picked off twice as he is still learning his way around the offense, as well as the tendencies of his receivers. The ground game racked up 135 yards, led by 56 yards from Jackie Battle and another 51 yards from veteran Thomas Jones, and the offense was aided by five first downs due to penalties. But they lost this game due to mistakes by their own accord, as well as a 49-yard field-goal attempt by Ryan Succop that was blocked at the end of regulation (he had two blocked in the game). The defense did a very good job against the Oakland offense, holding them to 308 yards, but in the end, the Kansas City offense just couldn’t put enough points on the board.

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Battle (foot) was seen in a walking boot this week and the Chiefs may hold him out, which means Jones would get the majority of the carries and the 33-year-old hasn’t been that effective in 2011 to begin with. Losing Jamaal Charles early in the season really killed the Chiefs’ NFL betting chances, and things got worse when quarterback Matt Cassel got hurt. Now, the Chiefs are just aiming to play spoiler as a win would play havoc with Denver’s playoff chances.

Why Bet On Denver Broncos (8-7 SU, 7-7-1 ATS)

The Broncos didn’t help their cause in a 40-14 loss in Buffalo, and quarterback Tim Tebow finally fell to earth, going 13-of-30 for 185 yards and a touchdown, but he was picked off four times and two of them were taken back for touchdowns. He did run for 34 yards and a score, but the second-year pivot couldn’t conjure any magic for the Broncos, whose defense didn’t help matter by allowing 160 yards on the ground. The Broncos even gave up a 80-yard punt return for a score in a game where all three facets of the team failed miserably, and their performance in the fourth quarter was especially disappointing as they were outscored 17-0, although Denver can point to a Buffalo team that had nothing to lose and played like they were relaxed. On the other hand, the Broncos looked tight, especially Tebow, who learned that an NFL game with playoff implications is much more difficult than, for example, an SEC title game. All the Bills did was bring to light what we already knew: if you turn Tebow into a passing quarterback, your odds of winning increase dramatically.

Running back Willis McGahee (hamstring) has played through his injury, and he’ll give it everything he has got this week. But it’s on defense where the Broncos have serious problem as safeties Brian Dawkins (neck) and Quinton Carter (hamstring) are questionable and will have to be watched throughout the week. The Broncos need to win this game and they win the AFC, while a loss opens the door for Oakland so they are in control their own destiny, but Denver has to come out firing for this game if they want to reach the postseason for the first time since 2005.

How It Will Play Out

Denver is a 3-point favorite at home according to NFL betting odds, and they’re 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS in their last five at Mile High against the Chiefs, with three games going over the posted total. However, the Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS at home, while the Chiefs are 4-3 ATS on the road.

The Chiefs would love nothing better than to stick it to their rivals, and they’ll also be out to avenge a 17-10 loss at home back in November in which the Broncos ran for 244 yards. There is another subplot as Orton was released by Denver to make room for Tebow, and he has some added inside knowledge as well, although the defense surely knows his tendencies. The key will be stopping the run as the Chiefs are dangerous against the pass, and they’ll shock Denver en route to an online betting upset.

Chiefs Broncos Betting Pick: Kansas City Chiefs

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Monday Night Free Pick – Patriots vs Chiefs

November 21, 2011 in Free Picks

Derrick Johnson

Big game for Derrick Johnson tonight

New England -16.5 vs Kansas City

Dancing with the Stars is looking good tonight, with this terrible matchup. Tyler Palko? is making his NFL debut tonight. Now I usually look for reasons why a backup will put in a good performance, but it’s hard to bet on it this time. 17 points is tough to give up against anyone and it makes me uncomfortable, personally.. I’m taking a pass on this one.

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But if you must, It’s hard to come up with any good reasons to take KC other than your 17 point head start. I guess you could rely on the competitive spirit of pro football players or pride. New England has always been a bully and I’d expect them to keep their foot on the gas until Haley cries “Uncle,” so 17 points may not be too bad. Half-hearted Pick: New England

Props

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Total Tackles & Assists – Derrick Johnson (KC) over 7.5: Tonight’s best bet. Johnson has put up great numbers when given enough tackle opportunities, which is exactly how it figures tonight. New England has provided plenty of tackle chances all season and ILB have been racking up big numbers each week. Any way you look at it, time of possession should favor the Pats and that means Johnson covers this number before we start the 4th quarter. Playable up to -130.

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Monday Night Free Pick – Chargers vs Chiefs

October 31, 2011 in Free Picks

San Diego (-3) vs Kansas City

Malcolm Floyd

San Diego is the Monday Night Free Pick

I considered making this game one of my Premium Picks this week, but ended up going with Eagles instead. Hopefully this one turns out as well. The Chiefs certainly had a huge win last week on the road in Oakland, but if you look at more than the score it wasn’t that impressive. The Raiders were terrible at QB, throwing 6 INTs. I’ll give KC some credit for making the plays but I doubt we’ll see Rivers making many mistakes. My real concern with the Chiefs is their offense which did almost zilch last week, I expect they’ll struggle again this week as San Diego will work hard to limit Bowe.

San Diego’s second half last week is a real head-scratcher and makes me a little squeamish to pull the trigger tonight, but I think its a good bet. The Chargers have more weapons offensively and have shown glimpses of being a good team, which KC has not. I expect they’ll get it in gear tonight for a key divisional game and bring home an easy win. Pick: Chargers

Betting Lines from SportsBet

I also like Under 45 tonight. KC is offensively challenged and Rivers is not lighting it up like he has in the past. This is a huge game for both teams and that usually brings out the running games, which is what KC prefers anyway.

Tackle Prop

D.Johnson solo+assisted tackles ov 7½ (-110): This is the best bet of the night. Johnson put up 13 tackles last and I expect him to keep rolling against the Chargers, who provide the 3rd most tackle opportunities in the league. Inside LBs have posted 9 or more tackles in four of the Chargers six games and Johnson is better than most of those guys, so we should him close to the cover by halftime.

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Chargers vs Chiefs Preview

October 31, 2011 in Free Picks

Dexter McCluster

Can the Chief's win 4 straight?

The San Diego Chargers are sitting alone atop the AFC West but don’t believe they’re playing their best football.

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The Kansas City Chiefs feel like they’re finally starting to come around after an embarrassing start, but they haven’t really been tested lately.

The Chargers look to bounce back from a disappointing loss Monday night when they visit the Chiefs, who are trying to win their fourth in a row and claim a share of first place in the division.

San Diego (4-2), which saw its run of West titles end at four as Kansas City captured the crown last season, was in position to extend its winning streak to four last Sunday, leading the New York Jets 21-10 at halftime. The Chargers failed to score after the break, however, and Philip Rivers threw two fourth-quarter interceptions that led to the Jets’ last 10 points in a 27-21 road loss.

“We just need to play better and put a complete game together,” said Rivers, who finished with a season-low 179 passing yards. “We still haven’t put one together and we’re 4-2. You can look at that two ways: Obviously we’re not playing as good as we can and we’ve won four games, or we better put it together or we’re not going to get done what we want to get done.”

Rivers has clearly not been playing up to his potential.

The three-time Pro Bowler has seven touchdown passes to nine interceptions – four fewer than he had all of last season. He had no touchdowns and two interceptions in a 20-17 win over Kansas City on Sept. 25, a victory that started the Chargers’ three-game winning streak.

That loss was the Chiefs’ third straight to start the season, but they’ve rebounded by winning their last three. No team has started 0-3 and won its next four games since Pittsburgh in 2000.

Kansas City’s wins haven’t come against the NFL’s top competition, however. The Chiefs (3-3) have defeated last-place teams Minnesota and Indianapolis and beat an Oakland squad last Sunday that was unsettled at quarterback.

They intercepted both Kyle Boller and Carson Palmer three times in a 28-0 victory. It was the franchise’s first six-interception game since 1984 against Seattle and first road shutout since beating San Diego in 1973.

“The great part about what this team has done is we just continue to grind and take it one game at a time,” quarterback Matt Cassel said. “You can see us get better from the start of the season till now. Hopefully we’ll just continue to make progress. We know it’s a one-game season every week.”

Cassel had two interceptions against the Raiders – his first picks since throwing one to Eric Weddle at midfield with 55 seconds left in San Diego last month.

In that meeting, the Chiefs were playing their first game since All-Pro running back Jamaal Charles was put on injured reserve with a torn left ACL. Kansas City’s ground game was in flux and finished with a season-low 81 yards. It has since found some consistency behind Jackie Battle and is averaging 145.3 rushing yards during the winning streak.

Battle, who has run for 195 yards on 35 attempts in the last two games, will be facing a San Diego defense that has yielded 162 rushing yards in each of its last two contests.

Kansas City’s defense has also been susceptible against the run, ranking 25th in the league with 125.5 yards allowed per game. The Chargers’ Ryan Mathews rushed for 98 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries in last month’s matchup.

The Chiefs, 8-2 at home since the start of last season, have lost seven of eight to the Chargers, with the lone victory coming in a Monday night game at Arrowhead Stadium to open last season.

“We just have to keep believing,” Kansas City cornerback Brandon Flowers said. “We never bowed our head and thought the season was done like some people did. We just knew if we kept pushing, things would turn around for us. It’s going to be a great showdown Monday night.”

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NFL Wild Card Playoffs – Free Pointspread Picks

January 6, 2011 in NFL Playoffs

Enter the Wild Card Week ChallengeWild Card Weekend is upon us, which means it’s time to get in your NFL playoff betting picks.

Here is what you need to know about this weekend’s games. Click on the links below for each game to see the football props for each in the BetUS sportsbook.

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks

Saturday, January 8: 4:30 p.m. NBC, Live from Qwest Field, Seattle, WA

New Orleans (11-5 SU, 7-9 ATS): -10 ½
Seattle (7-9 SU, 7-9 ATS): +10 ½
Game Total: 44 ½

The first of the Wild Card games is the most lopsided line this weekend, as the New Orleans Saints enter Saturday’s showdown with the Seahawks as double-digit favorites.

Don’t believe the hype though, as the Seahawks are the wager to make. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck was at his best this year when these two teams met up in New Orleans, as he threw for 366 yards and a touchdown. And as for his opponent, as good as Drew Brees was this season, he was a bit turnover prone, throwing 22 interceptions; only the venerable Eli (can-someone-wipe-this-drool-off-my-chin) Manning had more.

The Saints will win this game. But take the Seahawks to cover in your NFL Picks.

Free NFL Playoff Picks: Seattle +10 ½

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New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts

Saturday, January 8: 8:30 p.m. NBC, Live from Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN

New York (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS): +2 ½
Indianapolis (10-6 SU, 8-7-1 ATS): -2 ½
Game Total: 44 ½

Next up are the J-E-T-S, who travel to Indianapolis looking to avenge last year’s loss in the AFC Championship Game.

Unfortunately for Gang Green, it just doesn’t seem like it’ll happen. New York enters this one with Mark Sanchez at quarterback and, as improved as he is from last year, he’s still a bit shaky. And by a bit shaky, I mean he completed less than 55% of his passes this year. That ranks him well behind such luminaries as Alex Smith and Chad Henne; and only slightly better than Jimmy Clausen.

Going against an Indianapolis pass rush that features Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis (21 combined sacks), it could be a long day for this offense.

NFL Playoff Free Picks: Indianapolis -2 ½

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Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, January 9: 1:00 p.m. CBS, Live from Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Baltimore (12-4 SU, 8-7-1 ATS): -3
Kansas City (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS): +3
Game Total: 40 ½

Onto Sunday’s NFL Playoff Picks, where the Baltimore Ravens enter Arrowhead Stadium with the best record of any non-division winner in the NFL.

Look for the key matchup here to be the Chiefs NFL-best rushing offense against the Ravens’ always-stout defense. Kansas City tallied 164 yards per game on the ground this year, thanks in large part to Jamaal Charles. Charles, the NFL’s second leading rusher, missed beating Jim Brown’s record for Yards-per-Carry by a paltry 0.2 inches. Baltimore, meanwhile, had the fifth-best rush defense, allowing just 93 yards on the ground per game.

With this game expected to be so low scoring, we’re going to go ahead and take the Chiefs. Neither quarterback is great, but Matt Cassel is at home and, with Charles moving the chains for him, he will be good enough to pull off the upset.

NFL Betting Picks: Kansas City +3

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Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday, January 9: 4:30 p.m. Fox, Live from Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA

Green Bay (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS): +3
Philadelphia (10-6 SU, 7-9 ATS): -3
Game Total: 46

Finally, the NFL Playoff Picks takes us to Philadelphia, where Michael Vick and the Eagles will look to beat the Packers at home.

Despite being the underdog, we have to go ahead and give the edge to the road team. The Packers have been playing lights out football, needing victories over the Giants and Bears just to get here. They got them in dominating fashion, beating the two by a combined score of 55-20.

Also, while Vick has been the savior all season long in Philadelphia, we think he may be going against the wrong defense here. Green Bay’s secondary is one of the strongest in the league, and Tramon Williams and Charles Woodson (six combined interceptions) may be the best pair of corners in the NFL. Vick has been great this year, but is getting back to his old ways at just the wrong time, being erratic with the ball and throwing four interceptions in his last three games.

One turnover could be all the difference here, and we simply trust Rodgers more than Vick. This is why we recommend taking the Packers this football betting weekend!

NFL Playoff Picks: Green Bay +3

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NFL Week 15 Results – Premium Picks

December 19, 2010 in NFL Picks Pro - Results, NFL Week 15

NFLPicksPro.com results from Week 15…

  • CLEVELAND (+2) at CINCINNATI (Push)
  • JACKSONVILLE (+5) at INDIANAPOLIS (Loss)
  • KANSAS CITY (+1.5) at ST. LOUIS (Win)
  • OAKLAND (-6.5) vs. DENVER (Win)
  • 6 Point Teaser – OAKLAND (-.5) & DALLAS (-1.5) (Win)

Sunday was a winning day, despite a bitter loss in the Jax/Indy game.  Plenty of pro handicappers had a tough day on Week 15 as Sexy Rexy, Matt Flynn (who?) & the JETS all covered some of the big steam plays of the week.  Luckily, we avoided the upsets and put together a solid day of plays.

Kansas City & Oakland were clearly better and covered easily against inferior teams.  Dallas looked like a genius pick until Rex Grossman caught fire, but Dallas eventually did enough leaving it up to  Oakland who completed the teaser.   I haven’t seen the Battle of Ohio yet, but the Browns got off to an early lead and I thought Cincy would fold.  Funny thing… Cincy apparently started playing well after TO went down for the season.  I thought Cleveland was one of the best plays of the day, guess not.  The only loss of the day was looking great until the Jags botched their on-sides kick and it  was returned for TD.  Incredibly… I overlooked that when I was handicapping the game.

Tomorrow we do the Monday Night Picks and Props for free.  Let me know if you got any player  props you’d like an opinion on.

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NFL Week 14 – Early Line

December 7, 2010 in Week 14

NFL Week 14 PicksWeek 14 starts off Thursday night with one of the better betting opportunities of the week.  Indy rolls in as a -3 favorite road favorite against the Titans, who’ve lost 5 straight.  OK… the Titans have thrown up their skirt and Indy is desperate for a win, this is a no-brainer.  Well, not so fast my friend.  If you haven’t noticed, the Colts are losing the war of attrition and barely have enough bodies to field a full squad, they even lost another starter today.  To make matters worse, they have a short week and travel to face the Titans.

Sure Tennessee has been terrible, but they’ll have Collins back at QB and he should be able to hand the ball to Chris Johnson, have you seen the Colts defense?  Despite the problems facing Indy, bettors have hammered them early moving the line from -2.5 to -3, a key number for handicappers.  I’d expect the trend to continue, so if you want to play the Colts, you should grab them  now before the odds-makers add another half point against you.  Personally, I like going against the public trend and betting against a beat up, desperate bunch of dome dwellers.  I’ll wait and see if I can get the extra twig or even consider the ML.

No respect.  Kansas City and Jacksonville, what do they have to do?  The Jags are rolling, playing Del Rio’s style of ball.  They are physical, play solid defense, have a great rushing attack and a nice play-action game.  So… the Raiders come to town and somehow you only have to give up  4.5 points.  It’s the Raiders!  They’ve traveled east of the Mississippi twice this year… and lost 35-3 & 38-13.  Candy.

The Chiefs could be the most balanced team in the NFL, but they’ve been putting it together against some weak sisters. Well this is their chance to step up and show they learned something from their heartbreaking loss at Indy in Week 2, while crushing the Chargers to earn a division title.  Don’t forget San Diego experienced some terrible problems in their special teams earlier in the year, KC is THE team to expose them again.  The Chiefs have a free roll in San Diego and you’re getting a 7 point head start.

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