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NFL Week 17 – Colts vs Jaguars Betting Trends

December 30, 2011 in Guest Blogger

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So why are we previewing a totally meaningless game between Indianapolis and Jacksonville, two teams who have combined for six wins? Because of Andrew Luck. The Colts will get the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft if they lose and the chance to take Luck – thus that could mean the end of Peyton Manning’s Hall of Fame career in Indy. The Colts also would get the top pick if they win and the Rams somehow upset San Francisco.

Two consecutive wins after an 0-13 start have left Indianapolis tied with St. Louis for the worst record in the league in the race for Luck. If the Colts and Rams finish tied, Indianapolis would “win” the rights to the No. 1 pick in April’s draft based on the lower opposition winning percentage. Colts players have insisted they will play to win the game. Win or lose, Jacksonville is assured of a pick in the top eight.

Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew enters the game leading the league with 1,437 yards rushing, 128 ahead of LeSean McCoy. Jones-Drew has a good chance to secure his first career rushing title against the Colts’ 29th-ranked run defense. He rushed for 114 yards and a TD in Jacksonville’s 17-3 win over Indianapolis in Week 10. If he does win the rushing title, Jones-Drew would become just the second player since 1995 to lead the league in rushing while having the NFL’s worst passing offense. Baltimore’s Jamal Lewis also did it in 2003.

As losers of five of their last six, there hasn’t been much to cheer about lately for the Jaguars. A win and a rushing title for Jones-Drew would be a pleasant send-off for outgoing owner Wayne Weaver, who officially hands control of the team over to Shahid Khan on Jan. 4.

Is this the final game in a Colts uniform for veteran mainstays WR Reggie Wayne, C Jeff Saturday and DE Robert Mathis? Each is in the final year of his contract, and a roster overhaul could be in the works after the Colts’ worst season in over a decade. Wayne, who is 113 yards shy of his eighth consecutive 1,000-yard season, is second in franchise history in receptions (854), receiving yards (11,635) and TD catches (73). Mathis is second on the Colts’ all-time sack list with 82.5. Saturday is fifth in Colts history with 196 games played.

  • WAGERWEB.COM LINE — Jaguars by 3.5
  • RECORD VS. SPREAD — Indianapolis 6-9; Jacksonville 5-9-1
  • SERIES RECORD — Colts lead 15-6
  • LAST MEETING — Jaguars beat Colts 17-3, Nov. 13
  • LAST WEEK — Colts beat Texans 19-16; Jaguars lost to Titans 23-17
  • COLTS OFFENSE — OVERALL (30), RUSH (24), PASS (27)
  • COLTS DEFENSE — OVERALL (27), RUSH (29), PASS (22)
  • JAGUARS OFFENSE — OVERALL (32), RUSH (13), PASS (32)
  • JAGUARS DEFENSE — OVERALL (5), RUSH (11), PASS (7)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES —Should Jaguars, who have had little success against Peyton Manning, tank in hopes of keeping Indy out of top draft spot? “It’s just talk,” Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew said. “When I was in college (at UCLA), Stanford wasn’t all that anyways, so I don’t know what all the hype is. You know what I mean? I’m just saying.” … Colts have won two in row, both at home and with QB Dan Orlovsky starting. Orlovsky threw for 326 yards, with two touchdowns and no interceptions in wins against AFC South opponents Tennessee and Houston. … RB Donald Brown equally effective, running 27 times for 196 yards in those victories. … WR Reggie Wayne needs 113 yards receiving to reach 1,000 for eighth consecutive season. Wayne has 1,599 yards receiving against Jacksonville, his most against any team. … Jones-Drew needs 136 yards on ground to surpass Fred Taylor’s franchise record (1,572) set in 2003. Taylor texted MJD earlier in week, telling him to get it done. … Jones-Drew has run for at least 84 yards in 14 of 15 games, but his season high is 122 against Carolina.

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Atlanta Falcons vs Jacksonville Jaguars – Betting Trends

December 15, 2011 in Guest Blogger

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Atlanta can take another step toward returning to the playoffs – and still keep alive its faint hopes of repeating as NFC South champs – with a win over a Jacksonville team coming off its best performance of the season.

If the playoffs started today, the Falcons would be in, claiming one of the NFC’s two wild-card slots. The Jaguars’ Maurice Jones-Drew remains the NFL’s leading rusher, but the Falcons defense ranks fifth against the run. Plus, Atlanta can offset Jones-Drew with its own workhorse back. Michael Turner, coupled with Atlanta’s dangerous passing targets, can move the chains and keep Jacksonville’s offense on the sideline.

Jones-Drew and the Jaguars certainly produced last week, putting together their best effort of the season for interim coach Mel Tucker. After falling behind to Tampa Bay, they ripped off 41 straight points for a 41-14 victory, scoring on offense, defense and special teams.

Roddy White

Atlanta fell behind 23-7 at Carolina, but the Falcons were a different team after the break. Matt Ryan threw three touchdown passes, the defense came up with two huge interceptions and Atlanta rallied for a 31-23 victory. Ryan, who has topped 300 yards in three of the last five games, will try to lead his team to another win by setting a single-season mark. He needs 232 yards to top last year’s 3,705.

Coach Mike Smith gave the Falcons a scare after the victory over Carolina. The coach experienced some sort of medical problem and was hustled to a hospital in Charlotte. After being examined for a few hours, he flew back to Atlanta in the middle of the night on the owner’s private jet. He will coach tonight.

WAGERWEB.COM NFL FOOTBALL BETS — Falcons by 10½

  • RECORD VS. SPREAD — Jacksonville 4-8-1; Atlanta 6-6-1
  • SERIES RECORD — Jaguars lead 3-1
  • LAST MEETING — Jaguars beat Falcons 13-7, Sept. 16, 2007
  • LAST WEEK — Jaguars beat Buccaneers 41-14; Falcons beat Panthers 31-23
  • JAGUARS OFFENSE — OVERALL (32), RUSH (10), PASS (32)
  • JAGUARS DEFENSE — OVERALL (4), RUSH (16), PASS (4)
  • FALCONS OFFENSE — OVERALL (13), RUSH (18), PASS (10)
  • FALCONS DEFENSE — OVERALL (14), RUSH (5), PASS (22)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES — Falcons one victory away from fourth straight winning season. Before 2008, Atlanta had never put together back-to-back winning records. … Atlanta coach Mike Smith was defensive coordinator of Jaguars from 2003-07. … Jacksonville RB Maurice Jones-Drew leads NFL in rushing with 1,222 yards and set franchise record with four touchdowns (two running, two receiving) in last weekend’s rout of Tampa Bay. … Falcons WR Roddy White is 35 yards shy of fifth straight season with 1,000 yards receiving. … Despite signing DE Ray Edwards before season, Falcons tied for 24th in league with 25 sacks. … Atlanta QB Matt Ryan has put up passer efficiency rating higher than 110 in three of last four games. He also went past Chris Chandler for third place on team list for career yards passing with 13,353, trailing only Steve Bartkowski (23,470) and Chris Miller (14,066). … Jaguars rookie QB Blaine Gabbert is league’s lowest-rated passer (65.3). … Atlanta likely to be short-handed in secondary. CB Brent Grimes (knee) and Kelvin Hayden (toe) did not practice during short week and both listed as doubtful. … Jaguars have placed league-high 27 players on injured reserve. … Falcons RB Michael Turner has gone three straight games without rushing for 100 yards. Since joining Atlanta in 2008, he’s had only one stretch in which he went four games in a row without reaching triple figures.

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Jaguars vs Falcons Betting Preview

December 15, 2011 in Uncategorized

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (4-9) at ATLANTA FALCONS (8-5)

 Maurice Jones Drew

Wagerweb Point Spread & Total: Atlanta -12.5 & 42.5

The Jaguars try to maintain their sudden offensive firepower when they visit the hard-charging Falcons on Thursday night.

Jacksonville ripped off 41 unanswered points versus Tampa Bay last Sunday as Maurice Jones-Drew totaled 136 yards and four scores. Atlanta, 6-2 in its past eight games, has generally taken care of business against the also-rans this year, going 5-1 SU (3-2-1 ATS) against teams that currently have losing records. But the Jags are 2-0-1 ATS when tabbed as a double-digit underdog this season. And although the Falcons have been a strong run defense this year, they have allowed 319 rushing yards (4.8 YPC) in the past two games. And considering Jones-Drew has rushed for 80+ yards in 12 of 13 games this year, he should be able to keep the final score respectable here.

Before their 41-point outburst against the Bucs, the Jaguars failed to score 21 points in any of their first dozen games. Jones-Drew now has five straight games of 100-plus total yards, combining for 745 yards (149 YPG) over this stretch, showing that the entire offense revolves around him. Rookie QB Blaine Gabbert is also playing better lately, with 412 passing yards, 4 TD and 3 INT in the past two games. He is also hoping that the Falcons top cornerbacks, Kelvin Hayden (toe) and Brent Grimes (knee) are not able to return to the field this week.

Like Jacksonville, the Falcons also had a huge offensive outburst in Week 14. QB Matt Ryan threw for 320 yards and four touchdowns in a 31-23 victory over Carolina, successfully erasing a 23-7 halftime deficit. Since the start of November, Ryan has thrown for 299 YPG, 14 TD and 4 INT in six games. Although the Jaguars have some injuries to their secondary, they still forced seven turnovers (3 INT, 4 fumbles) last week against Tampa Bay. But the Falcons talented trio of Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez and Julio Jones might prove too much to handle for a depleted back seven. These teams have faced each other just once in the past eight seasons, a 13-7 Jacksonville victory in 2007.

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December 17, 2010 in NFL Week 15

Reggie Wayne

Reggie Wayne is part of the OVER equation

If you’re looking to cash in on some value-packed NFL  football betting odds gridiron gamblers, then you’ll have a chance to do just that when the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts square off in their super important Week 15 AFC South match-up that gets underway live from Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

The Jags will be looking to clinch a playoff berth at the Colts’ expense, while last season’s AFC champions are just looking to get back on track after snapping their three-game losing streak the last time out.

Sunday, December 19, 1:00 PM ET
Live from Lucas Oil Stadium
TV: CBS

NFL Odds

  • Indianapolis Colts -4.5
  • Over/Under 48

Here is a look at the key head-to-head trends surrounding this important AFC South matchup.

  • Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
  • Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Indianapolis.
  • Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Jacksonville 411

  • Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
  • Jaguars are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
  • Jaguars are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC South.

The Jaguars (8-5 SU, 9-4 ATS, 10-3 O/U) is coming off an thrilling 38-31 win over the Oakland Raiders in their Week 14 matchup to cash in against the online sportsbook betting line as a 3.5-point home favorite to move to a perfect 6-0 ATS over their last half-dozen games.

Indianapolis 411

  • Colts are 12-2-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Colts are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
  • Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.

The Colts (7-6 SU, 6-6-1 ATS, 8-4-1 O/U) squeaked past a dysfunctional Tennessee team 30-28 in Week 14 but narrowly failed to cover the online sportsbook betting odds as a 3-point home favorite to fall to 0-3 against the online sportsbook betting odds over their last three games.

Prediction: I think this is a really tough call against the online sportsbook ATS spread as the Jaguars have been one of the most opportunistic bunch of overachievers in the league this season and Indianapolis has been hugely disappointing, with both, their ability to run the ball – and stop the run – which brings me to my online sportsbook selection for this match-up.

I am going to advise my BetUS football betting brethren to play the Over against the online sportsbook O/U Total as these two AFC South division rivals have played Over the total in two straight meetings and five of the last six matchups overall.

The Jags and Colts combined to average 49.4 points per game offensively and a dead-even 50.0 points per game defensively.

The Over is 6-1 in Jacksonville’s last seven games and 9-2 in their last 11 games against their AFC conference counterparts. The Over has also gone 3-0-1 in the Colts’ last four games and 4-1 against the online sportsbook Total in their last five games against their AFC South division rivals.

NFL Picks: Over 48 Total Points

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