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NFL Week 17 – Colts vs Jaguars Betting Trends

December 30, 2011 in Guest Blogger

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So why are we previewing a totally meaningless game between Indianapolis and Jacksonville, two teams who have combined for six wins? Because of Andrew Luck. The Colts will get the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft if they lose and the chance to take Luck – thus that could mean the end of Peyton Manning’s Hall of Fame career in Indy. The Colts also would get the top pick if they win and the Rams somehow upset San Francisco.

Two consecutive wins after an 0-13 start have left Indianapolis tied with St. Louis for the worst record in the league in the race for Luck. If the Colts and Rams finish tied, Indianapolis would “win” the rights to the No. 1 pick in April’s draft based on the lower opposition winning percentage. Colts players have insisted they will play to win the game. Win or lose, Jacksonville is assured of a pick in the top eight.

Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew enters the game leading the league with 1,437 yards rushing, 128 ahead of LeSean McCoy. Jones-Drew has a good chance to secure his first career rushing title against the Colts’ 29th-ranked run defense. He rushed for 114 yards and a TD in Jacksonville’s 17-3 win over Indianapolis in Week 10. If he does win the rushing title, Jones-Drew would become just the second player since 1995 to lead the league in rushing while having the NFL’s worst passing offense. Baltimore’s Jamal Lewis also did it in 2003.

As losers of five of their last six, there hasn’t been much to cheer about lately for the Jaguars. A win and a rushing title for Jones-Drew would be a pleasant send-off for outgoing owner Wayne Weaver, who officially hands control of the team over to Shahid Khan on Jan. 4.

Is this the final game in a Colts uniform for veteran mainstays WR Reggie Wayne, C Jeff Saturday and DE Robert Mathis? Each is in the final year of his contract, and a roster overhaul could be in the works after the Colts’ worst season in over a decade. Wayne, who is 113 yards shy of his eighth consecutive 1,000-yard season, is second in franchise history in receptions (854), receiving yards (11,635) and TD catches (73). Mathis is second on the Colts’ all-time sack list with 82.5. Saturday is fifth in Colts history with 196 games played.

  • WAGERWEB.COM LINE — Jaguars by 3.5
  • RECORD VS. SPREAD — Indianapolis 6-9; Jacksonville 5-9-1
  • SERIES RECORD — Colts lead 15-6
  • LAST MEETING — Jaguars beat Colts 17-3, Nov. 13
  • LAST WEEK — Colts beat Texans 19-16; Jaguars lost to Titans 23-17
  • COLTS OFFENSE — OVERALL (30), RUSH (24), PASS (27)
  • COLTS DEFENSE — OVERALL (27), RUSH (29), PASS (22)
  • JAGUARS OFFENSE — OVERALL (32), RUSH (13), PASS (32)
  • JAGUARS DEFENSE — OVERALL (5), RUSH (11), PASS (7)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES —Should Jaguars, who have had little success against Peyton Manning, tank in hopes of keeping Indy out of top draft spot? “It’s just talk,” Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew said. “When I was in college (at UCLA), Stanford wasn’t all that anyways, so I don’t know what all the hype is. You know what I mean? I’m just saying.” … Colts have won two in row, both at home and with QB Dan Orlovsky starting. Orlovsky threw for 326 yards, with two touchdowns and no interceptions in wins against AFC South opponents Tennessee and Houston. … RB Donald Brown equally effective, running 27 times for 196 yards in those victories. … WR Reggie Wayne needs 113 yards receiving to reach 1,000 for eighth consecutive season. Wayne has 1,599 yards receiving against Jacksonville, his most against any team. … Jones-Drew needs 136 yards on ground to surpass Fred Taylor’s franchise record (1,572) set in 2003. Taylor texted MJD earlier in week, telling him to get it done. … Jones-Drew has run for at least 84 yards in 14 of 15 games, but his season high is 122 against Carolina.

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Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts Trends

December 22, 2011 in Uncategorized

The Houston Texans and the Indianapolis Colts will both be trying to pick up a win on Thursday when they battle at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Oddsmakers currently have the Texans listed as 7-point favorites versus the Colts, while the game’s total is sitting at 40.

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Houston lost its last outing, a 28-13 result against the Panthers on December 18. The Texans failed to cover in that game as a 5-point favorite, while the 41 combined points took the game UNDER the total.

Indianapolis won its last outing, a 27-13 result against the Titans on December 18. The Colts covered in that game as a 6.5-point underdog, while the 40 combined points took the game UNDER the total.

Team records:
Houston: 10-4 SU, 10-4 ATS
Indianapolis: 1-13 SU, 5-9 ATS

Houston most recently:

  • When playing in December are 5-5
  • When playing on turf are 4-6
  • After outgaining opponent are 6-4
  • When playing within the division are 7-3

Indianapolis most recently:

  • When playing in December are 6-4
  • When playing on turf are 1-9
  • After being outgained are 1-9
  • When playing within the division are 5-5

A few trends to consider:

  • Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
  • Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of Houston’s last 13 games when playing Indianapolis
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston’s last 8 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
  • Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
  • Indianapolis is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games when playing Houston
  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of Indianapolis’s last 13 games when playing Houston
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis’s last 8 games when playing at home against Houston

Next up:
Houston home to Tennessee, Sunday, January 1
Indianapolis at Jacksonville, Sunday, January 1

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Texans vs Colts – Free Pointspread Pick

December 22, 2011 in Free Picks

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Indianapolis overcame the odds and notched their first win of the campaign, but now they’ll have to turn around and host a Houston team that was thoroughly dominated in their last game, and has never won in Indianapolis. Look for the Texans to end that on Thursday night.

What: NFL Betting
When: Thursday, December 22nd, 8:20 PM ET
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Pick: Houston Texans -6

Why Bet On Houston Texans (10-4 SU, 8-5 ATS)

The Texans had a seven-game winning streak snapped with a 28-13 loss at home to Carolina, falling down 21-0 at halftime, and it wasn’t a solid performance in any aspect of the game. T.J. Yates was 19-of-30 for 212 yards and a pair of picks (Houston had three turnovers in total) as the Texans scored on one of their four trips to the red zone. Arian Foster was the lone bright spot on the Houston offense as he ran for 109 yards and a score, but overall the Texans failed to move the chains on seven of nine third-down opportunities. The defense was missing coordinator Wade Phillips, who had kidney and gall bladder surgery, and they were a little flat, especially out of the gate. Carolina ran for 166 yards and scored on all three trips to the red zone, and it was the first time all season that the Texans couldn’t force a turnover.

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Of course, the major injury worry for the Texans (and a huge key to their NFL betting odds in the playoffs) is receiver Andre Johnson (hamstring), who will probably sit out this week as well in an attempt to get as close to 100% for the postseason. Yates will be under center for the rest of the season and having Johnson on the field would make life easier for him. The Texans looked like a team that had clinched a playoff spot against the Panthers as they played with little passion, but they should be able to find that against a division rival, even if it’s the lowly Colts.

Why Bet On Indianapolis Colts (1-13 SU, 5-9 ATS)

The Colts finally won their first game of the season as they topped Tennessee 27-13 at home, and there were two keys: the running of Donald Brown (161 yards on 16 carries, a touchdown) and an opportunistic defense (three turnovers forced, one returned for a touchdown). Dan Orlovsky was 11-of-17 for 82 yards and a score as he earned a win for the first time in 10 career starts and he also had the block that helped Brown to an 80-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter to seal the deal. The Colts had just 10 first downs to 21 for the Titans, but they barely made any mistakes (one turnover) and made a few big plays for the first time all season. The defense was especially strong as they weren’t pushed around at the point of attack as they have been for much of the year, holding the Titans to 66 yards on the ground. The Colts were motivated by a division rival, a Tennessee team coming into their place to try and take a step towards the playoffs; Indianapolis played like a team looking to show their pride and finally, they got a couple of breaks on Sunday.

It was confirmed that Peyton Manning (neck) won’t play for the rest of the year, which is for the best, although the Colts now have to decide on Manning, drafting Stanford’s Andrew Luck with the No.1 pick or holding onto both next year. The Colts needed to get that win out of the way to avoid an 0-16 season and this is their final home game, so they’ll want to give their fans something to cheer about. Whether or not they can pull it off is a different story.

How It Will Play Out

Houston is a 6.5-point NFL betting favorite on the road in Indianapolis, where they are 0-9 SU and 4-5 ATS in their history, with six of nine going over the posted total (although the past two have gone under). If the Texans are going to get their first win in Indianapolis, now looks like the time to do it.

Things will go back to normal this week as the Texans will dominate up front on both sides of the ball and the ground game will allow Houston to control the clock, avoid turnovers and smother the Colts, whose defense won’t be able to hold up like they did against Tennessee. Offensively, Indy will need another big game from Brown, but there isn’t much in the past to show that he’ll do it again. Take Houston to cover the spread on Thursday night.

Texans Colts Betting Pick: Houston Texans

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Indianapolis at New Orleans – Free Pick

October 22, 2011 in Free Picks

Indianapolis at New Orleans

If you are a Colts fan, you’re probably not thrilled about this upcoming weekend of football (heck, the season entirely). What with your Colts on atrocious form, running around the field like a bunch of harassed sheep without star QB Peyton Manning to lead them, I don’t blame you. Winless in six! Are you kidding me?

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The Colts (0-6, 0-3 on the Road) start to the season is one of their worst starts; four short of their record 0-10 start on the 1997 season.

If there was ever any speculation about how bad the Colts might be without Manning, I think the answer is obvious. Glaringly obvious. The loss of Peyton Manning appears to have obliterated the team’s equilibrium and erased any confidence they might have felt going into this season.

Colts fans however can take some encouragement (and I mean this in the loosest context) from the fact that their team has lost by ten points or less in the last five games – a sign that they are adjusting (if slowly) to Manning’s absence and it’s only a matter of time before they find their mojo to record a first W.

New Orleans (4-2, 2-0 at Home) meanwhile is enjoying a solid start to the season, only suffering their first defeat in five games last weekend. Drew Brees set an NFL record when he topped 350 yards for the fourth consecutive time last Sunday, a record that was overshadowed by three costly interceptions, including one in the end zone with 3:16 remaining on the clock.

In spite of costly mistakes Brees is one of the best quarterbacks in the game and he in particular must be excited at the prospect of coming up against the Colts this weekend. I mean, imagine what records he could possibly set in this game!

Football Betting Verdict: The Saints are eager to bounce back after last weekend’s defeat and a flailing Colts side that has trouble closing games seems to be just what the doctor ordered. When it comes to scoring, the Saints are a good bet to rack up the points. Watch for the Saints to terrorize the Colts fragile ego further and Brees to put on a one-man show. Bet Over 49 in this Sunday Night Week 7 matchup.

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New York Jets (11-5) at Indianapolis Colts (10-6) Pointspread Free Pick

January 5, 2011 in NFL Playoffs

Enter the Wild Card Week ChallengeBacking the Indianapolis Colts to cover the spread versus the New York Jets in the sportsbook is one of the best NFL wild card predictions a pigskin handicapper can make for the weekend.

68% of football handicappers are backing the Colts to cover the less than 3-point spread in their game versus NYJ on Saturday. Although Jets’ coach Rex Ryan firmly believes that his fellas will win the Super Bowl, so far neither the odds makers nor gamblers are backing up Ryan’s assessment.

Can Indy ride their late regular season winning wave to a victory over the New York Jets and a cover in the sportsbook on January 8th?

New York Jets (11-5) at Indianapolis Colts (10-6)

Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
When: Jan. 8th, 2011 at 8:05 pm EST
TV: NBC

NFL Betting Line

New York Jets +2 ½ -110 O 44 ½ -110
Indianapolis Colts -2 ½ -110 U 44 ½ -110

Check out some trends in this game.

  • The New York Jets are 5 and 1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of ½ to 3 points.
  • The New York Jets are 4 and 0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
  • The Indianapolis Colts are 1 and 4 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
  • The Home team is 4 and 1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams.

According to the trends, NYJ should be one of the better NFL wild card predictions to cover the spread this weekend. After all, they do have the supposedly better defense and are coming off of a stunning 38 to 7 victory over the Buffalo Bills.

I should probably tell my editors, Sandeep or Reagen, to strike that word stunning from the paragraph above. I mean, how can anybody use the word stunning in regards to a victory over the injury-plagued Buffalo Bills?

Before beating the Bills, the vaunted Jets’ D had given up 38 points to the Chicago Bears, a team that most football fans believe has a distraught offensive line.

The Jets could only sack Bears’ QB Jay Cutler 2 times in that game for 13 yards even though the Bears gave up 6 sacks to Green Bay for 51 yards only a week later. The Jets must get pressure on QB Peyton Manning in order to have success on January 8th.

There are two reasons and both are equally important in me deciding to make the Colts to cover one of the best NFL wild card predictions of the weekend. The first reason is that the Jets likely aren’t going to be able to get to Manning often in this game.

Manning was sacked only 16 times during the regular season. That’s not a huge number and more often than not, Peyton read the blitz beautifully and delivered strikes to his wide receivers. How else to explain Manning throwing for 4,700 yards and 33 touchdowns during the regular season with both TE Dallas Clark and WR Austin Collie out of action for most of the season?

The other reason to love the Colts to cover in this game is the fact that Indy’s run defense has become amazingly good. The Colts haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in the past 3 games. In fact, they’ve shut down 3 very good rushing teams in a row the way that the Jets usually shut down a team’s rushing attack.

The Colts’ rush D easily makes them one of the best NFL wild card predictions to cover the spread on Saturday. Indy held Jacksonville and their terrific running back Maurice Jones-Drew to only 68 rushing yards as a team.

The Colts stopped both of Oakland’s awesome running backs, Darren McFadden and Michael Bush, by holding the Raiders to 80 total rushing yards. Finally, in Week 17, the Indianapolis Colts held Tennessee and arguably the most talented running back in the the NFL, Chris Johnson, to a measly 51 yards on 24 carries on the ground.

Because of the Jets’ inability to pressure Peyton Manning and the Colts’ ability to shut down the Jets’ rushing game, this is a no-brainer to me. The Indianapolis Colts should cover the 2 ½ points in the NFL sportsbook.

NFL Betting Pick: Indianapolis Colts -2 ½ -110

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NFL Playoffs- Best Bets on Wild Card Week

January 4, 2011 in Free Picks, NFL Playoffs

Enter the Wild Card Week ChallengeThe best early NFL playoff bets are the ones that go with proven commodities and take everything into account in order to make the safest bet possible.

With so many good teams and games on the docket for week one of the NFL playoffs it can be a little tricky to figure out what games to pinpoint.

But with the right game plan, just like any winning team, making week one playoff bets is much easier than it looks.

Here are the best early NFL playoff bets judging from the recently-released official playoff brackets:

NY Jets at Indianapolis Colts, 8:20 Saturday on NBC:

The Colts and Jets both disappointed a bit but the Colts did so mostly because of injuries.

They still rallied down the stretch and needed a little bit of luck to win but they got it done.

The Jets meanwhile haven’t lived up to their expectations of being one of the best defenses in recent memory because of a lack of cohesion in the secondary and lack of a pass rush.

The Colts have the perfect scheme and team to exploit those problems in week one.

While the best early NFL playoff bets favorite Colts, who go in as 2 1/2-point favorites, are missing some key receivers still, Peyton Manning is far more proven in the playoffs and experienced than Mark Sanchez who is banged up and simply can’t be trusted at this point.

The Colts play well at home on turf and they have the pass rush to bother Sanchez all day with Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney leading the charge.

Go with the Colts because of home field and a big QB advantage.

Best early NFL playoff bet: Colts

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles, 4:30 Sunday:

Many people remember when Michael Vick came into Lambeau Field as a Falcon and helped lead a shocking upset of the Packers in the first round of the playoffs.

That was 2003 and a lot of time has passed but Vick looks better than ever and has more weapons now.

The Packers have little running game and that won’t help in a cold-weather game against an opportunistic Eagles defense.

Go with the Eagles in this one, who are three-point favorites, because of Vick and the home field and the small spread.

Best early NFL playoff bet: Eagles

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NFL Week 15 Results – Premium Picks

December 19, 2010 in NFL Picks Pro - Results, NFL Week 15

NFLPicksPro.com results from Week 15…

  • CLEVELAND (+2) at CINCINNATI (Push)
  • JACKSONVILLE (+5) at INDIANAPOLIS (Loss)
  • KANSAS CITY (+1.5) at ST. LOUIS (Win)
  • OAKLAND (-6.5) vs. DENVER (Win)
  • 6 Point Teaser – OAKLAND (-.5) & DALLAS (-1.5) (Win)

Sunday was a winning day, despite a bitter loss in the Jax/Indy game.  Plenty of pro handicappers had a tough day on Week 15 as Sexy Rexy, Matt Flynn (who?) & the JETS all covered some of the big steam plays of the week.  Luckily, we avoided the upsets and put together a solid day of plays.

Kansas City & Oakland were clearly better and covered easily against inferior teams.  Dallas looked like a genius pick until Rex Grossman caught fire, but Dallas eventually did enough leaving it up to  Oakland who completed the teaser.   I haven’t seen the Battle of Ohio yet, but the Browns got off to an early lead and I thought Cincy would fold.  Funny thing… Cincy apparently started playing well after TO went down for the season.  I thought Cleveland was one of the best plays of the day, guess not.  The only loss of the day was looking great until the Jags botched their on-sides kick and it  was returned for TD.  Incredibly… I overlooked that when I was handicapping the game.

Tomorrow we do the Monday Night Picks and Props for free.  Let me know if you got any player  props you’d like an opinion on.

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December 17, 2010 in NFL Week 15

Reggie Wayne

Reggie Wayne is part of the OVER equation

If you’re looking to cash in on some value-packed NFL  football betting odds gridiron gamblers, then you’ll have a chance to do just that when the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts square off in their super important Week 15 AFC South match-up that gets underway live from Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

The Jags will be looking to clinch a playoff berth at the Colts’ expense, while last season’s AFC champions are just looking to get back on track after snapping their three-game losing streak the last time out.

Sunday, December 19, 1:00 PM ET
Live from Lucas Oil Stadium
TV: CBS

NFL Odds

  • Indianapolis Colts -4.5
  • Over/Under 48

Here is a look at the key head-to-head trends surrounding this important AFC South matchup.

  • Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
  • Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Indianapolis.
  • Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Jacksonville 411

  • Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
  • Jaguars are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
  • Jaguars are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC South.

The Jaguars (8-5 SU, 9-4 ATS, 10-3 O/U) is coming off an thrilling 38-31 win over the Oakland Raiders in their Week 14 matchup to cash in against the online sportsbook betting line as a 3.5-point home favorite to move to a perfect 6-0 ATS over their last half-dozen games.

Indianapolis 411

  • Colts are 12-2-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Colts are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
  • Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.

The Colts (7-6 SU, 6-6-1 ATS, 8-4-1 O/U) squeaked past a dysfunctional Tennessee team 30-28 in Week 14 but narrowly failed to cover the online sportsbook betting odds as a 3-point home favorite to fall to 0-3 against the online sportsbook betting odds over their last three games.

Prediction: I think this is a really tough call against the online sportsbook ATS spread as the Jaguars have been one of the most opportunistic bunch of overachievers in the league this season and Indianapolis has been hugely disappointing, with both, their ability to run the ball – and stop the run – which brings me to my online sportsbook selection for this match-up.

I am going to advise my BetUS football betting brethren to play the Over against the online sportsbook O/U Total as these two AFC South division rivals have played Over the total in two straight meetings and five of the last six matchups overall.

The Jags and Colts combined to average 49.4 points per game offensively and a dead-even 50.0 points per game defensively.

The Over is 6-1 in Jacksonville’s last seven games and 9-2 in their last 11 games against their AFC conference counterparts. The Over has also gone 3-0-1 in the Colts’ last four games and 4-1 against the online sportsbook Total in their last five games against their AFC South division rivals.

NFL Picks: Over 48 Total Points

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NFL Week 14 – Early Line

December 7, 2010 in Week 14

NFL Week 14 PicksWeek 14 starts off Thursday night with one of the better betting opportunities of the week.  Indy rolls in as a -3 favorite road favorite against the Titans, who’ve lost 5 straight.  OK… the Titans have thrown up their skirt and Indy is desperate for a win, this is a no-brainer.  Well, not so fast my friend.  If you haven’t noticed, the Colts are losing the war of attrition and barely have enough bodies to field a full squad, they even lost another starter today.  To make matters worse, they have a short week and travel to face the Titans.

Sure Tennessee has been terrible, but they’ll have Collins back at QB and he should be able to hand the ball to Chris Johnson, have you seen the Colts defense?  Despite the problems facing Indy, bettors have hammered them early moving the line from -2.5 to -3, a key number for handicappers.  I’d expect the trend to continue, so if you want to play the Colts, you should grab them  now before the odds-makers add another half point against you.  Personally, I like going against the public trend and betting against a beat up, desperate bunch of dome dwellers.  I’ll wait and see if I can get the extra twig or even consider the ML.

No respect.  Kansas City and Jacksonville, what do they have to do?  The Jags are rolling, playing Del Rio’s style of ball.  They are physical, play solid defense, have a great rushing attack and a nice play-action game.  So… the Raiders come to town and somehow you only have to give up  4.5 points.  It’s the Raiders!  They’ve traveled east of the Mississippi twice this year… and lost 35-3 & 38-13.  Candy.

The Chiefs could be the most balanced team in the NFL, but they’ve been putting it together against some weak sisters. Well this is their chance to step up and show they learned something from their heartbreaking loss at Indy in Week 2, while crushing the Chargers to earn a division title.  Don’t forget San Diego experienced some terrible problems in their special teams earlier in the year, KC is THE team to expose them again.  The Chiefs have a free roll in San Diego and you’re getting a 7 point head start.

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