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NFL Week 17 – Lions vs Packers Pointspread Free Pick

December 29, 2011 in Guest Blogger

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For everything that fans of the defending Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers have watched their team accomplish through the 2011 calendar year, the truth is that fans of the Detroit Lions should be just as happy as they are heading in to the final week of the season. Lions’ fans will get to see their team return to the playoffs this year for the first time since 1999, and after enduring some of the hardest times throughout the past 11 years, it has been a long time coming for an organization that had been mired in irrelevancy for far too long.

With that said, the Lions have a couple of tough tests ahead of them over the next couple of weeks, with a trip to Lambeau Field to face the one-loss Packers before facing a division winner in the NFC Wild Card round. It will be interesting to see how both teams approach this game given the fact that the NFC Wild Card spots have been clinched, with Detroit listed as the slight sports betting favorite.

Betting Preview: Detroit Lions

A 14-point comeback win at Oakland and a 38-10 blowout win over the San Diego Chargers at home highlighted the three-game win streak that helped the Lions lock up the final NFC Wild Card spot this past Sunday. It marked the second time this season that Detroit won at least three in a row, and with quarterback Matt Stafford, Calvin Johnson and the fifth-ranked pass offense in the league hooking up early and often it makes sense that the team has been so successful. Now it will come down to having Ndamakong Suh and the defense ready to raise its level of play for the postseason after finishing near the bottom of the NFL against the run and near the middle against the pass.

Betting Preview: Green Bay Packers

It is unlikely that Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will spend much time looking back at what could have been with a win at Kansas City two weeks ago, at least until their season is over. Green Bay will be focused on the task at hand, and since they have already clinched the best record in the NFC, and a first round bye, they can afford to play their starters in this game to keep them from resting three weeks before their first playoff game. Rodgers has been brilliant this year with 4,643 passing yards and 45 touchdowns, and he could potentially reach 5,000 in this game if he wants to take the shot.

Betting On Lions Packers Preview: Outlook & Pick

The fact that the NFC North will send two teams to the postseason this year and neither one is the Chicago Bears has to be somewhat surprising, and both the Packers and Lions’ fans should be happy with all that their teams have already accomplished. That said, it makes sense for Green Bay to leave their starters in longer in order to keep them from becoming rusty from too long of a layoff, while Detroit could be caught scoreboard watching as they look forward to their first playoff game in 11 years, even though they are listed as sportsbook favorites.

Betting On Lions Packers Pick: Green Bay Packers

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Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Free Pick

December 23, 2011 in Free Picks, Guest Blogger

Jordy Nelson

Can Jordy Nelson put up big numbers against the Bears? You BET he can.

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So we know that the Green Bay Packers will not get the chance to keep their dreams of a perfect season alive this Christmas, but they have to still be feeling happy with the presents under their tree in comparison with the lump of coal that the Chicago Bears could serve up to their fans. The struggling Bears have lost four straight to fall two games back of the final NFC Wild Card spot, and another loss as sports betting underdogs against their biggest rivals will ensure that they don’t get a shot at the playoffs this year, unless both the Detroit Lions and Atlanta Falcons win on Saturday to guarantee they won’t make it.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers

Sunday December 25, 2011 – 8:30 PM ET
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
NFL Betting Lines: Green Bay Packers – 13

While many are calling the first loss of the season a blessing in disguise for the defending Super Bowl champion Packers, the fact that Chicago head coach Lovie Smith continues to give Caleb Hanie his blessing as their starter could lead to his eventual release. Despite a number of capable veteran arms available around the league, Smith decided to stick with Hanie after Jay Cutler was injured, and the result has been one of the biggest collapses of the NFL season.

Bet Bears Packers Preview: Chicago Bears

In four starts this season for Chicago, Hanie has thrown just three touchdowns in comparison with nine interceptions, and still hasn’t clinched a single win. The loss of running back Matt Forte hasn’t helped the Bears’ offense, which has managed to hit the 20-point mark in just one of their four straight losses. While the Chicago defense was able to keep them in games early on, they were absolutely routed by the Seattle Seahawks in a 24-point loss last Sunday, and could be suffering from a tough morale hit following their collapse against Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos the week before last.

Bet Bears Packers Preview: Green Bay Packers

There is no denying that the Packers have been the best team in football all year, but their loss to the Chiefs does raise some concerns. The point has been made that the Green Bay offensive line was banged up, as was wide receiver Greg Jennings, but the fact is that the Kansas City defense was able to get far too much pressure on quarterback Aaron Rodgers, and the Green Bay defense was not able to make plays in power formations. The Packers’ defense is used to Rodgers and the offense putting up a ton of points and forcing the opposition team to score, but if they do not get the ball and are forced to face power sets in the run defense, they could be in trouble.

Bet Bears Packers Preview: Outlook & Pick

Even with their vulnerabilities it is hard to imagine that the Packers won’t be able to at least cover the two-touchdown sportsbook spread against a Chicago team that just lost by 24 to the Seahawks. Green Bay is a proud team with a roster that burns to win every game, and they will make a statement as they bounce back this week with a big win.

Bet Bears Packers Pick: Green Bay Packers

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NFL Week 16: Packers vs Bears Betting Preview

December 23, 2011 in Guest Blogger

Brian Urlacher

Can the Bears cover against the Packers?

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It’s a must-win for the Chicago Bears  in Sunday’s lone game this week when they visit Green Bay on Christmas Night. Chicago has to win out to have any chance at a playoff berth but could be eliminated depending on Saturday’s Chargers-Lions game: If the Lions win, the Bears are through. Green Bay, meanwhile, might have nothing to play for. If San Francisco loses on Saturday at Seattle, the Packers will have clinched the NFC’s top seed. Green Bay is aiming to be the top seed in the conference for the first time since 1996.

The Bears have lost four in a row since Jay Cutler went out with a broken thumb. Backup Caleb Hanie was atrocious, throwing three picks in three of those four losses. So he has been dumped for Josh McCown in this one. McCown hasn’t started a game since Dec. 23, 2007, for Oakland against Jacksonville and was completely out of the NFL last season. He threw two passes last week in a late relief role and eight passes total since his last starts. The Bears’ offense has found the end zone just four total times in the past four games. And it will again be without star RB Matt Forte.

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The Bears have had some success rushing the football even with the loss of Forte, gaining 132 yards and averaging 4.3 yards per attempt in Week 15. The Packers have been inconsistent defending the run, yielding 4.7 yards per carry. Look for offensive coordinator Mike Martz to continue to be conservative with his inexperienced quarterback and pound the rock in Week 16. Chicago is making a change at RB, with Marion Barber out due to a calf injury and Kahlil Bell in. The former undrafted free agent from UCLA compiled 133 all-purpose yards in last Sunday’s loss to the Seahawks, including his first-career touchdown on a 25-yard pass from Hanie. The Bears also will be missing WR Johnny Knox, who suffered a scary back injury last week and is sidelined for months.

Green Bay will probably be a bit angry after falling last week in Kansas City to end any hopes of an unbeaten season. That also ended the Packers’ 19-game winning streak. Once tackles Bryan Bulaga and Derek Sherrod went down with leg injuries last week, QB Aaron Rodgers was a target for Chiefs defenders. Packers coach Mike McCarthy had to move guard T.J. Lang to right tackle, and Lang was destroyed by pass-rushing linebacker Tamba Hali. Expect the Bears’ Julius Peppers to rush past Lang and pressure Rodgers. That should force the Packers to go more to a running game in order to protect Rodgers, who won’t have Bulaga or star WR Greg Jennings.

Rodgers, who might not play a full game Sunday, is 6-2 lifetime against the Bears, completing 67.9 percent of his passes for 1,937 yards with 10 TDs and seven interceptions in the series. He was 28 of 38 for 297 yards and three touchdowns in Green Bay’s 27-17 win at Chicago on Sept. 25.

The Packers will be looking to set the franchise record for the most wins in the regular season this Sunday. They have already matched the 13-win totals posted by the team in 1962, 1996, 1997 and 2007.  This will be the fourth meeting between the Packers and Bears in 2011, only the sixth time in NFL history that two franchises have met four or more times in a calendar year.

Green Bay will be looking to become only the second NFL team to beat another club four times in a calendar year (L.A Raiders over Denver, 1994). The Packers beat the Bears in the 2010 season finale at Lambeau Field and the 2010 NFC Championship in Chicago, and also topped Chicago earlier this season in Week 3 at Soldier Field.

  • WAGERWEB.COM NFL Betting — Packers -12 (43.5)
  • RECORD VS. SPREAD — Bears 7-7; Green Bay 9-5
  • SERIES RECORD — Bears lead 92-85-6
  • LAST MEETING — Packers beat Bears 27-17, Sept. 25
  • LAST WEEK — Bears lost to Seahawks 38-14; Packers lost to Chiefs 19-14
  • BEARS OFFENSE — OVERALL (24), RUSH (10), PASS (25)
  • BEARS DEFENSE — OVERALL (17), RUSH (8), PASS (27)
  • PACKERS OFFENSE — OVERALL (4), RUSH (25), PASS (4)
  • PACKERS DEFENSE — OVERALL (31), RUSH (12), PASS (31)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES — Packers’ loss at Kansas City last Sunday broke 19-game winning streak and was first loss in nearly a year, having lost at New England on Dec. 19, 2010. … Will be fourth meeting between Bears and Packers in 2011. Two teams faced off in 2010 regular season finale, NFC championship game, and earlier this season. … QB Aaron Rodgers is first Packers player and fifth player overall in NFL history to throw 40-plus touchdowns in season. … Five of WR Jordy Nelson’s 10 touchdowns this season have been for 35-plus yards. … WR Donald Driver has 9,979 yards receiving and needs 21 to become the Packers player with 10,000. … CB Charles Woodson has five interceptions against Bears. Since joining Packers in 2006, Woodson has 37 interceptions and nine interception returns for touchdowns. … Bears would be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss. … Including NFC championship game, Bears LB Brian Urlacher aims for third game in row vs. Packers with an interception. … Bears DE Julius Peppers had sack and fumble recovery in last game vs. Packers. Since entering NFL in 2002, Peppers is tied for third in league with 99 sacks.

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Monday Night Football Preview – Green Bay vs Minnesota

November 14, 2011 in Guest Blogger

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (2-6) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (8-0)

WagerWeb Line & Total: Green Bay -13 & 50
Opening Line & Total: Packers -14 & 51

Greg-Jennings

Green Bay takes on Minnesota tonight.

The Packers look to add on to their 14-game win streak when they host 2-6 Minnesota on Monday night. When the teams met in Minnesota in Week 7, the aggressiveness of Green Bay’s secondary actually worked against them in QB Christian Ponder’s first start. While Ponder was intercepted twice and completed just 13-of-32 passes in that game, he still racked up 219 yards and had a couple of long completions to WR Michael Jenkins. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense figures to do whatever they want against the Vikings defense. He has a 124.5 passer rating and 310.3 YPG against Minnesota over the past two years, and the Vikings’ injury-plagued secondary can’t match up with Green Bay’s receivers. Minnesota is 0-6 ATS in its past six road games following a victory, and the Packers are 16-4 ATS after 3+ wins in a row under head coach Mike McCarthy.

Rodgers has been amazing during his team’s 14-game win streak, throwing for 4,340 yards (310 YPG), 38 TD and just 6 INT. He has also enjoyed picking apart Minnesota in his career, tossing 15 TD and only three picks in seven career meetings with the Vikings. WR Greg Jennings has scored in each of the past four meetings with Minnesota, totaling 28 catches for 461 yards and six touchdowns. Green Bay’s running game is slowly, but surely, improving. The team has rushed for 57, 96, 114 and 136 yards in the past four games. RB James Starks had a strong 75 yards on 13 carries (5.8 YPC) in the October trip to the Metrodome, and also had 66 yards on 13 carries (5.1 YPC) in last week’s win in San Diego.

The Packers are still allowing 300 passing YPG (2nd-most in NFL), but have a league-high 16 interceptions. Charles Woodson (five picks) leads the way, followed by Charlie Peprah (4 INT), who picked off two Philip Rivers passes last week, returning one 40 yards for a touchdown. Tramon Williams also had a pick-six against Rivers, returning an INT for 43 yards for a score.

Although the Vikings haven’t won a whole lot of recent trips to Lambeau Field, they have an 11-9 ATS advantage in the past 20 meetings in Green Bay. Vikings monster RB Adrian Peterson has done all he can to carry this offense in 2011, with 795 rushing yards (fourth in NFL) on 166 carries (tied for most in NFL). His nine touchdown runs are also tied atop the league and Peterson has fumbled just once in the first half of 2011. And considering what he has done to Green Bay defenders over the years, you better believe he will get a heavy workload on Monday night. In nine career games against the Pack, Peterson has 982 rushing yards (109.1 YPG) and six touchdowns. Peterson’s presence alleviates the pressure on Ponder to perform, but the rookie improved his completion percentage fro 40.6% in his first start to 64.3% in the Vikings’ last game at Carolina, a 24-21 win.

Minnesota’s pass defense ranks slightly above Green Bay’s at 274 YPG (30th in NFL), but it is still missing two cornerbacks in starter Antoine Winfield (neck) and reserve Chris Cook (suspension). The Vikings shouldn’t have much problem containing the Packers middling ground game. Minnesota ranks fifth in the NFL in rushing defense (94 YPG) and Green Bay has gained an average of 89 rushing YPG in the past five meetings.

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NFL Early Season Surprises

September 21, 2011 in Uncategorized

Fred Jackson

The 2011 NFL season is just getting starting but you should already be adjusting your thoughts if you want to have a profitable year.  The general public is slow to react and that gives you/us an opportunity to grab some value in the middle part of the NFL season. Here’s a few things to think about…

  1. Offensive number are WAY up, which goes against EVERYONE’S early season predictions.  It’s common knowledge that defenses start off the season with an advantage, but with no OTA’s this year experts assumed we’d see a bunch of 13-10 games in weeks 1 & 2.  And… the new kickoff rule was supposed to be an offensive killer.  Instead we got 172 TDs and almost 16,000 yards of passing, both NFL records.   Seemingly, half the QBs in the league are on pace to crush Marino’s all time record for passing yardage.   If you’re playing totals or props this is a very important development.  Vegas has already made the adjustments, now how are you going to beat them?
  2. The Lions are hot. They were one of the trendy picks due to Stafford and Megatron starting the season healthy, but they also have serious talent on the defensive side.  It’s probably a good idea to jump on the Lion’s moneytrain until the spreads get out of hand.  Be careful though, there’s always a couple early season teams that catch fire only to go down in flames as the season ends.  A healthy, improving defensive will be the key to Detroit’s success.
  3. Obviously, Indianapolis is done.  Until they show signs of putting up a fight I’d look to beat them.
  4. I usually wait until week 3 before forming any conclusions, but I think it’s safe to say St Louis, Minnesota, and Seattle are terrible.   It’s hard to imagine any justifiable reason to bet them under any circumstance.
  5. Green Bay and New England are good (hardly a surprise.)  Maybe there will be others, we’ll see.

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Packer vs Saints 2011 Season Opener

September 8, 2011 in Free Picks

Here we go…

Finally, the Obama jobs speech the Saints travel into Green Bay to kick off the 2011 season.  Here’s my standard early season disclaimer:  Take it easy early on.  It’s a long season and you don’t want to damage your bankroll based on preseason action and last year’s reputations.  That being said, everyone HAS to have some action on tonight’s game.

I like the Packers -4.5.  Going into Lambeau is always a tough assignment, but on opening night to face the Super Bowl champs… c’mon.  Obviously all the attention is on the two QB’s but GB’s defense might turn into the league’s best unit, which should be the difference tonight.  Trying to handicap these two rushing attacks is impossible, so you have to focus on how they’ll match up passing/pass defending.  New Orleans is so-so defending the pass and they’ll blitz to create pressure, which will also provide opportunities for Rodgers to expose downfield.   On the other side, GB can create lots of pressure from the front which also helps their ball-hawking secondary.

Lance Moore is the only significant player missing from either side.

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Super Bowl Betting Continues as Great Tradition

February 4, 2011 in Superbowl

If there is one “tradition” in America that has rapidly grown and shows no signs of letting up, it is that of Superbowl gambling, to the point – and we are not being facetious – that “Super Sunday” is about as close to a national holiday as anything that isn’t official. Certainly, there will be parties happening all over the country.

In the Superbowl gambling odds for Sunday, the Green Bay Packers, the NFC champions, are a 2.5-point favorite over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the contest that begins at approximately 6:30 PM ET at Cowboys Stadium (artificial turf) in Arlington, TX.

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No one in his or her right mind would doubt that the NFL has been fueled to a considerable degree by betting interest, and this interest is at its apex during the week of the championship game, when Superbowl gambling is at its fever pitch. Between the wagering that is placed on the pointspread, along with totals, parlays, adjusted lines, money lines, and of course, all the player and game propositions that have been established, it is estimated that over $10 billion worth of business might be done on Superbowl gambling.

Because the game is such a television spectacle, and because of the proliferation of media, which puts every movement under the microscope, when it comes time for the Big Game, there literally isn’t anything happening in the game that can’t be a subject of Superbowl gambling. Action approaches the nine-figure level. There was a record $94.5 million wagered in Nevada sportsbooks alone for Super Bowl XL between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Seattle Seahawks, and there was reportedly an $82.7 million bet on last year game between the New Orleans Saints and the Indianapolis Colts. Quite obviously, there is a lot of action that takes place in other venues, such as the online world.

This year, there is a game that has a very tight line in Superbowl gambling, as the Green Bay Packers are a 2.5-point favorite over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Such a game is quite likely to bring a lot of action. The franchises are two of the most popular in the NFL, and it appears from the number to be very competitive. In fact, this is definitively the closest line since Super Bowl XVI, when the Cincinnati Bengals were a one-point favorite over the San Francisco 49ers. Experts who observe the industry closely have projected that the volume on betting for the game will come closer to the Steelers-Seahawks game in Superbowl gambling in the Nevada sportsbooks.

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