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Saturday Night Football Free Pick – Cowboys at Buccaneers

December 17, 2011 in Free Picks

LeGarrette Blount

LeGarrette Blount leads the Bucs tonight.

Tampa Bay +7.5 vs Dallas Cowboys

This line doesn’t make much sense to me, the Cowboys have played close games all year and they’re giving up over a TD on the road? Sure Tampa has played terrible recently, but they’re the kind of physical bruiser that can give the Cowboys big problems. Just play tough, physical ball and eventually the “talented” Cowboys will bring their game to the opponent’s level.

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Little Tony Romo has some weapons, but that O-line is starting to show it’s youth without Demarco Murray around – Romo will be under pressure and scoring won’t come easily. I expect the Dallas defense will play better, but they’re not very good on that side of the ball. Tampa will have some success in the running game which could open some play-action success. I’ll take the Bucs +7.5.

Tackle Props

There are several options for tonight’s game & several are worth playing. Tackle props are all about schemes, opportunity and value/price.

S.Lee solo+assisted tackles ov 7½ -110
This is the best bet of the night. When he’s been healthy, Lee has covered this number 6 out of 9 games and this is the healthiest he’s been since breaking his hand. Tampa’s going to establish the run, which will provide plenty of tackle opportunities for Dallas. Lee is one of the top LBs in the league and should have this covered easily.

G.Sensabaugh solo+assisted tackles ov 5½ +125
Sensabaugh isn’t very good and that’s exactly why we’re getting a good price in this situation. He projects out to 6 tackles tonight so this is a straight value play. Same deal as Lee, there should be plenty of tackle opportunities for Dallas, so even if Sensabaugh misses a few he should be close to the number. He’ll be on the field for all the snaps.

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Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Trends

December 17, 2011 in Guest Blogger

WagerWeb

WagerWeb Guest

It’s a must-win on Saturday night for Dallas, which finds itself currently out of the playoff chase but can still win the NFC East by winning out. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, has lost seven straight and just wants the season over.

It’s that special time of year again, that period when the Cowboys start feeling charitable and begin giving away football games. Giving up two TDs in the final 3 minutes against the Giants will probably result in another giveaway — the division title. The Cowboys have been their own worst enemy. They’ve blown five fourth-quarter leads for losses and lost three games in which they led by more than 10 points. Jason Garrett’s decision-making and the team’s defense have come under scrutiny the past few weeks. Poor clock management and conservative play calling prompted Cowboys fans to ask Jerry Jones whether Garrett’s job was on the line. Jones said Garrett was safe.

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The offensive line must keep the pocket clean for QB Josh Freeman, who isn’t 100%, to keep Tampa Bay within striking distance. Dallas’ secondary has holes that are easily exposed when blockers keep LB DeMarcus Ware out of the backfield. The Cowboys lost the focal point of their offense, rookie RB DeMarco Murray (broken ankle), last weekend. RB Felix Jones and newly signed Sammy Morris will step in. Murray, averaging 137.4 rushing yards over the Cowboys’ last five victories and on pace to become the franchise’s first 1,000-yard back since 2006, has been placed on injured reserve.

QB Tony Romo should continue to work inside-out, throwing underneath passes to WR Laurent Robinson and TE Jason Witten before winding up for shots to WRs Miles Austin and Dez Bryant.

Tampa Bay seemed to have a budding star on its hands in 2010 in Josh Freeman, who had 25 touchdown passes and just six interceptions. That ratio has dropped to 12 TDs and a league-high 18 interceptions this year. Freeman returned last Sunday after missing a game with an injured throwing shoulder, but the results were disastrous as the Buccaneers fell 41-14 at Jacksonville. Tampa Bay has allowed the most points in the NFC (370) and has lost four times at by least 19.

WAGERWEB.COM NFL FOOTBALL BETS— Cowboys -7 (47)

  • RECORD VS. SPREAD — Dallas 4-8-1; Tampa Bay 4-9
  • SERIES RECORD — Cowboys leads 11-3
  • LAST MEETING — Cowboys beat Buccaneers 34-21, Sept. 13, 2009
  • LAST WEEK — Cowboys lost to Giants 37-34; Buccaneers lost to Jaguars 41-14
  • COWBOYS OFFENSE — OVERALL (6), RUSH (14), PASS (6)
  • COWBOYS DEFENSE — OVERALL (16), RUSH (8), PASS (24)
  • BUCCANEERS OFFENSE — OVERALL (18), RUSH (T24), PASS (13)
  • BUCCANEERS DEFENSE — OVERALL (29), RUSH (28), PASS (27)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES — Cowboys have dominated series, winning 11 of 14 meetings. However, Bucs have won two of four games played in Tampa. … Dallas QB Tony Romo 2-0 vs. Tampa Bay, completing 67.9 percent of passes for 659 yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions for a passer rating of 147.2. He threw a career-best five TD passes against Bucs on Thanksgiving Day in 2006. … Cowboys RB Felix Jones returns to lineup, replacing rookie DeMarco Murray, who broke right ankle during opening quarter of last week’s loss to Giants. Jones came off bench to rush for 106 yards, third 100-yard performance of his career. … Dallas TE Jason Witten and WRs Dez Bryant, Mile Austin and Laurent Robinson pose big challenge for Tampa Bay secondary, which hopes to get back injured CB Aqib Talib, who sat most of past two games with sore right hamstring. … Bryant has TDs in three of Cowboys’ past four games; Robinson coming off four-reception, 137-yard, one TD performance against Giants, and Austin had 42-yard TD catch against Tampa Bay when teams last faced each other. … Tampa Bay’s seven-game losing streak matches longest under third-year coach Raheem Morris, who lost to Dallas in his debut as NFL’s youngest coach. … DE Adrian Clayborn one of few bright spots for Tampa Bay defense ranked 29th. First-round draft pick is tied for second among NFC rookies with 6½ sacks.

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Sunday Night Betting Trends – Cowboys vs Eagles

October 30, 2011 in Free Picks

Here’s a guest blogger post from the guys at WagerWeb (100% deposit bonus).  Be sure to check back tomorrow around lunch time, I’ll have free picks and props posted for the Monday Night Game.

Lesean McCoy

Can LeSean McCoy get loose against Dallas tonight?

The Sunday night game this week is a big one for both Dallas and Philadelphia, as certainly neither team expected to be below .500 after Week 8 and the playoff hopes for both – especially the Eagles – would take a big blow with a defeat.

A 34-7 rout of the Rams that got the Cowboys back on track after two utterly devastating losses in consecutive games to the Lions and Patriots. The Rams are so bad that we learned nothing from this particular outcome, other than that DeMarco Murray is quite effective when no defender touches him. Murray rushed for a franchise-record 253 yards with one touchdown in the win. Murray’s rushing yards are the second-most in a game by a rookie in NFL history, as Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson holds the rookie and all-time record with 296 yards on November 4, 2007.

Regardless of whether or not you deem that performance a fluke, you can count on the Eagles seeing a whole lot of Murray on Sunday Night. The Eagles have been less than impressive defending the run in 2011, giving up 124 yards rushing per game and 4.8 yards per attempt. Their technique and alignment (wide nine at the end position) tends to create natural creases to run through. Look for Cowboys coach Jason Garrett to control the tempo of the game with Murray and Tashard Choice between the tackles. Cowboys QB Tony Romo has a 111.7 passer rating in his last five wins in the series, compared with 39.7 in two losses during that span

The Eagles are the NFL’s best rushing team, part by design. The other part is Michael Vick, improvisational scrambler. Last December, the Cowboys limited Vick to a 2010 season-low 16 rushing yards. But the Eagles’ other ground threat, running back LeSean McCoy, gashed them for a 149 yards in a 30-27 road win at Cowboys Stadium. The Eagles are averaging 170.0 rushing yards through six games. Vick has 372 of their 1,020 yards and averaging a league-best 8.4 yards. . McCoy is averaging 5.4 yards per carry with six touchdowns, and his 569 rushing yards rank seventh in the league. He’s also second with 51 carries of at least 10 yards since 2010. Dallas has the NFL’s top rush defense.

Vick has developed into a better pocket passer since becoming a starter again in 2010. Last year he threw a career-high 21 touchdowns and already has nine in 2011, with a few of his eight interceptions coming off tipped passes. The Philly offensive line has struggled in protection, and Vick is averaging 5.54 yards per pass attempt against the blitz. But given time, he can pick apart Dallas’ secondary.

Given its 12-0 record following bye weeks under Andy Reid, Philadelphia could have a leg up in this one.

  • WAGERWEB.COM BETTING LINE — Eagles -3.5 (49.5)
  • RECORD VS. SPREAD — Dallas 3-2-1; Philadelphia 2-4
  • SERIES RECORD — Cowboys lead 56-44
  • LAST MEETING — Cowboys beat Eagles 14-13, Jan. 2, 2011
  • LAST WEEK — Cowboys beat Rams 34-7; Eagles had bye
  • COWBOYS OFFENSE — OVERALL (6), RUSH (12), PASS (4)
  • COWBOYS DEFENSE — OVERALL (7), RUSH (1), PASS (14)
  • EAGLES OFFENSE — OVERALL (3), RUSH (1), PASS (8)
  • EAGLES DEFENSE — OVERALL (13), RUSH (23), PASS (10)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES — Cowboys have won four of last five meetings, including playoff game on Jan. 9, 2010. … Two teams have combined to win 23 of possible 39 NFC East titles. … Dallas 4-4 at Lincoln Financial Field. … Cowboys played 11 straight games decided by four points or less before routing Rams. … Dallas QB Tony Romo has thrown touchdown in club-record 21 straight games. … Cowboys coach Jason Garrett 8-5 since being promoted from offensive coordinator midway through last season. … LB DeMarcus Ware has 11½ sacks versus Eagles. … TE Jason Witten has 91 receptions for 1,053 yards and seven TDs in 16 games vs. Philadelphia. … Cowboys 6-2 on Oct. 30. … Eagles RB LeSean McCoy has 918 yards from scrimmage in last seven division games. … QB Michael Vick has run for a TD in four of last six home games. … Eagles looking for first win at home. They’re 0-2. … WR DeSean Jackson had career-long 91-yard TD catch and career-best 210 yards receiving in win at Dallas last season. … Eagles DE Trent Cole and LT Jason Peters will start after missing two games apiece with injuries.

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