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NFL Week 17 – Colts vs Jaguars Betting Trends

December 30, 2011 in Guest Blogger

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So why are we previewing a totally meaningless game between Indianapolis and Jacksonville, two teams who have combined for six wins? Because of Andrew Luck. The Colts will get the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft if they lose and the chance to take Luck – thus that could mean the end of Peyton Manning’s Hall of Fame career in Indy. The Colts also would get the top pick if they win and the Rams somehow upset San Francisco.

Two consecutive wins after an 0-13 start have left Indianapolis tied with St. Louis for the worst record in the league in the race for Luck. If the Colts and Rams finish tied, Indianapolis would “win” the rights to the No. 1 pick in April’s draft based on the lower opposition winning percentage. Colts players have insisted they will play to win the game. Win or lose, Jacksonville is assured of a pick in the top eight.

Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew enters the game leading the league with 1,437 yards rushing, 128 ahead of LeSean McCoy. Jones-Drew has a good chance to secure his first career rushing title against the Colts’ 29th-ranked run defense. He rushed for 114 yards and a TD in Jacksonville’s 17-3 win over Indianapolis in Week 10. If he does win the rushing title, Jones-Drew would become just the second player since 1995 to lead the league in rushing while having the NFL’s worst passing offense. Baltimore’s Jamal Lewis also did it in 2003.

As losers of five of their last six, there hasn’t been much to cheer about lately for the Jaguars. A win and a rushing title for Jones-Drew would be a pleasant send-off for outgoing owner Wayne Weaver, who officially hands control of the team over to Shahid Khan on Jan. 4.

Is this the final game in a Colts uniform for veteran mainstays WR Reggie Wayne, C Jeff Saturday and DE Robert Mathis? Each is in the final year of his contract, and a roster overhaul could be in the works after the Colts’ worst season in over a decade. Wayne, who is 113 yards shy of his eighth consecutive 1,000-yard season, is second in franchise history in receptions (854), receiving yards (11,635) and TD catches (73). Mathis is second on the Colts’ all-time sack list with 82.5. Saturday is fifth in Colts history with 196 games played.

  • WAGERWEB.COM LINE — Jaguars by 3.5
  • RECORD VS. SPREAD — Indianapolis 6-9; Jacksonville 5-9-1
  • SERIES RECORD — Colts lead 15-6
  • LAST MEETING — Jaguars beat Colts 17-3, Nov. 13
  • LAST WEEK — Colts beat Texans 19-16; Jaguars lost to Titans 23-17
  • COLTS OFFENSE — OVERALL (30), RUSH (24), PASS (27)
  • COLTS DEFENSE — OVERALL (27), RUSH (29), PASS (22)
  • JAGUARS OFFENSE — OVERALL (32), RUSH (13), PASS (32)
  • JAGUARS DEFENSE — OVERALL (5), RUSH (11), PASS (7)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES —Should Jaguars, who have had little success against Peyton Manning, tank in hopes of keeping Indy out of top draft spot? “It’s just talk,” Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew said. “When I was in college (at UCLA), Stanford wasn’t all that anyways, so I don’t know what all the hype is. You know what I mean? I’m just saying.” … Colts have won two in row, both at home and with QB Dan Orlovsky starting. Orlovsky threw for 326 yards, with two touchdowns and no interceptions in wins against AFC South opponents Tennessee and Houston. … RB Donald Brown equally effective, running 27 times for 196 yards in those victories. … WR Reggie Wayne needs 113 yards receiving to reach 1,000 for eighth consecutive season. Wayne has 1,599 yards receiving against Jacksonville, his most against any team. … Jones-Drew needs 136 yards on ground to surpass Fred Taylor’s franchise record (1,572) set in 2003. Taylor texted MJD earlier in week, telling him to get it done. … Jones-Drew has run for at least 84 yards in 14 of 15 games, but his season high is 122 against Carolina.

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Monday Night Free Picks – Tampa vs Indianapolis

October 3, 2011 in Free Picks

Short and sweet for tonight’s game.  It won’t matter who plays QB for the Colts tonight, this is Tampa’s night to shine on the big stage of MNF.  The Bucs have not had a good start to the season, but they’ve got some talent and I’m betting (really) they get their offense ramped up tonight against Indy’s terrible defense.  The Colts burned me last week as they put up a fight against Pittsburgh, but not tonight.   Pick: Tampa -10

Tackle props are pretty thin so far, I’ll update later if a line gets released on some of the linebackers.  Angerer could have a HUGE game.

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NFL Early Season Surprises

September 21, 2011 in Uncategorized

Fred Jackson

The 2011 NFL season is just getting starting but you should already be adjusting your thoughts if you want to have a profitable year.  The general public is slow to react and that gives you/us an opportunity to grab some value in the middle part of the NFL season. Here’s a few things to think about…

  1. Offensive number are WAY up, which goes against EVERYONE’S early season predictions.  It’s common knowledge that defenses start off the season with an advantage, but with no OTA’s this year experts assumed we’d see a bunch of 13-10 games in weeks 1 & 2.  And… the new kickoff rule was supposed to be an offensive killer.  Instead we got 172 TDs and almost 16,000 yards of passing, both NFL records.   Seemingly, half the QBs in the league are on pace to crush Marino’s all time record for passing yardage.   If you’re playing totals or props this is a very important development.  Vegas has already made the adjustments, now how are you going to beat them?
  2. The Lions are hot. They were one of the trendy picks due to Stafford and Megatron starting the season healthy, but they also have serious talent on the defensive side.  It’s probably a good idea to jump on the Lion’s moneytrain until the spreads get out of hand.  Be careful though, there’s always a couple early season teams that catch fire only to go down in flames as the season ends.  A healthy, improving defensive will be the key to Detroit’s success.
  3. Obviously, Indianapolis is done.  Until they show signs of putting up a fight I’d look to beat them.
  4. I usually wait until week 3 before forming any conclusions, but I think it’s safe to say St Louis, Minnesota, and Seattle are terrible.   It’s hard to imagine any justifiable reason to bet them under any circumstance.
  5. Green Bay and New England are good (hardly a surprise.)  Maybe there will be others, we’ll see.

NFL Wild Card Playoffs – Free Pointspread Picks

January 6, 2011 in NFL Playoffs

Enter the Wild Card Week ChallengeWild Card Weekend is upon us, which means it’s time to get in your NFL playoff betting picks.

Here is what you need to know about this weekend’s games. Click on the links below for each game to see the football props for each in the BetUS sportsbook.

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks

Saturday, January 8: 4:30 p.m. NBC, Live from Qwest Field, Seattle, WA

New Orleans (11-5 SU, 7-9 ATS): -10 ½
Seattle (7-9 SU, 7-9 ATS):
+10 ½
Game Total:
44 ½

The first of the Wild Card games is the most lopsided line this weekend, as the New Orleans Saints enter Saturday’s showdown with the Seahawks as double-digit favorites.

Don’t believe the hype though, as the Seahawks are the wager to make. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck was at his best this year when these two teams met up in New Orleans, as he threw for 366 yards and a touchdown. And as for his opponent, as good as Drew Brees was this season, he was a bit turnover prone, throwing 22 interceptions; only the venerable Eli (can-someone-wipe-this-drool-off-my-chin) Manning had more.

The Saints will win this game. But take the Seahawks to cover in your NFL Picks.

Free NFL Playoff Picks: Seattle +10 ½

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New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts

Saturday, January 8: 8:30 p.m. NBC, Live from Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN

New York (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS): +2 ½
Indianapolis (10-6 SU, 8-7-1 ATS):
-2 ½
Game Total:
44 ½

Next up are the J-E-T-S, who travel to Indianapolis looking to avenge last year’s loss in the AFC Championship Game.

Unfortunately for Gang Green, it just doesn’t seem like it’ll happen. New York enters this one with Mark Sanchez at quarterback and, as improved as he is from last year, he’s still a bit shaky. And by a bit shaky, I mean he completed less than 55% of his passes this year. That ranks him well behind such luminaries as Alex Smith and Chad Henne; and only slightly better than Jimmy Clausen.

Going against an Indianapolis pass rush that features Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis (21 combined sacks), it could be a long day for this offense.

NFL Playoff Free Picks: Indianapolis -2 ½

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Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, January 9: 1:00 p.m. CBS, Live from Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Baltimore (12-4 SU, 8-7-1 ATS): -3
Kansas City (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS):
+3
Game Total:
40 ½

Onto Sunday’s NFL Playoff Picks, where the Baltimore Ravens enter Arrowhead Stadium with the best record of any non-division winner in the NFL.

Look for the key matchup here to be the Chiefs NFL-best rushing offense against the Ravens’ always-stout defense. Kansas City tallied 164 yards per game on the ground this year, thanks in large part to Jamaal Charles. Charles, the NFL’s second leading rusher, missed beating Jim Brown’s record for Yards-per-Carry by a paltry 0.2 inches. Baltimore, meanwhile, had the fifth-best rush defense, allowing just 93 yards on the ground per game.

With this game expected to be so low scoring, we’re going to go ahead and take the Chiefs. Neither quarterback is great, but Matt Cassel is at home and, with Charles moving the chains for him, he will be good enough to pull off the upset.

NFL Betting Picks: Kansas City +3

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Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday, January 9: 4:30 p.m. Fox, Live from Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA

Green Bay (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS): +3
Philadelphia (10-6 SU, 7-9 ATS):
-3
Game Total:
46

Finally, the NFL Playoff Picks takes us to Philadelphia, where Michael Vick and the Eagles will look to beat the Packers at home.

Despite being the underdog, we have to go ahead and give the edge to the road team. The Packers have been playing lights out football, needing victories over the Giants and Bears just to get here. They got them in dominating fashion, beating the two by a combined score of 55-20.

Also, while Vick has been the savior all season long in Philadelphia, we think he may be going against the wrong defense here. Green Bay’s secondary is one of the strongest in the league, and Tramon Williams and Charles Woodson (six combined interceptions) may be the best pair of corners in the NFL. Vick has been great this year, but is getting back to his old ways at just the wrong time, being erratic with the ball and throwing four interceptions in his last three games.

One turnover could be all the difference here, and we simply trust Rodgers more than Vick. This is why we recommend taking the Packers this football betting weekend!

NFL Playoff Picks: Green Bay +3

Super Bowl Odds Betting

January 5, 2011 in Superbowl

Enter the Wild Card Week ChallengeThe Indianapolis Colts are offering amazing long shot odds to win Super Bowl XLV. The Colts are at +1600 to win the Super Bowl making them the best bet, based on odds, in the sportsbook.

But Indy isn’t the only team that deserves some mentioning to win the AFC that’s going off at terrific betting odds. See below for the best teams on which to wager to win Super Bowl XLV at good, underdog, odds.

Best Long Shot Bet: Indianapolis Colts +1600

What’s up with the odds makers giving no respect to the Indianapolis Colts? Sure, they had to work their butts off to get into the playoffs but, lest we forget, the Colts were the NFL Preseason favorite to win the big game at +800. Now, football handicappers are getting Peyton and Co. at long shot odds to win Super Bowl XLV.

Indy has won 4 straight games including keeping 3 of the best rushing teams, the Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders and Tennessee Titans, to below 100 rushing yards in their last 3 games. Now, they take on a team in the New York Jets this weekend that’s rush heavy.

After that, the Colts most likely will travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers before battling either rival New England or the Baltimore Ravens. Indy is on the upswing and could be a tough team in the AFC Playoffs.

Second Best Long Shot Bet: Baltimore Ravens +1400

The Ravens take on the KC Chiefs this Saturday, January 8th, as -1 point favorites. They’re offering terrific long shot odds to win Super Bowl XLV because they will have to play every single game on the road this season unless the Jets upset two teams in a row.

Football handicappers shouldn’t let that fact preclude them from backing the Ravens in this game. Baltimore has won 4 games in a row straight up and probably should have beaten New England this season, #1 seeded in the NFC Atlanta, and Pittsburgh the last time they played the rival Steelers. Baltimore is a good wager at the given odds to win the Super Bowl on February 6th.

Stay Away From: New York Jets +2500

Yes, the Kansas City Chiefs is going off at the biggest long shot odds to win Super Bowl XLV in the sportsbook, but the Chiefs, at +4500, have a better shot to win the Super Bowl than the Jets in my opinion. KC has a decent QB in Matt Cassel who rarely makes mistakes and the top rushing offense in the NFL.

They also get at least one home game during the playoffs. The Jets have to play Indianapolis on the road this Saturday, then, should they win, take on New England in the second round. The Patriots beat the Jets 45 to 3 the last time the two teams met.

NYJ just isn’t playing very well right now while their opponent in the wildcard round, Indy, is playing well. I like the Colts to end the Jets’ dream early during the playoffs but even if NYJ gets past Indy, they have no shot versus the Patriots on the road.

Tennessee Titans are tonight’s free pick…

December 9, 2010 in Free Picks, Week 14

NFL Picks Pro WebsiteCheck out the Colts vs Titans free play at NFLPicksPro.

TENNESSEE (+3.5) vs. INDIANAPOLIS

The whole world is already on a desperate Colts team as they “need” this one to stay in the playoff picture, but the Titans are no pushover. Indy comes in favored, but has no ground attack – Donald Brown has done very little – and they barely have enough players to field a team. The Titans can defend the pass well, and Chris Johnson will look to finally get rolling again against a soft Indy rush defense. It can tough pick a team that’s lost 5 straight, especially when they’re up against a perrenial contender like Indy, but… you got to have guts and go against the flow sometimes. It helps when you’ve got Chris Johnson (have you seen the Colt’s run D?), home field, and 3.5 points. Pick: Titans

S.Tulloch solo+assisted tackles un 10½ (-110):
Tulloch has put up two huge games in the last couple weeks, as the Titans offense was crumbling, but he was facing run dominant teams Houston and Jax. Tackle props are all about opportunities and value (my motto), and Indy just doesn’t give opposing LBs much opportunity to stack up stats. Double digits is a big number in the best situations, so I don’t mind the price either.

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Titans vs Colts – Pointspread Free Pick

December 8, 2010 in Week 14

byBetUs Handicapper Nick Meyer Reggie Wayne

The Colts and Titans are both reeling but both have talented rosters which could lead to a classic Thursday night  game between the two.

With close odds, betting fans are expecting another photo finish and the hope for Indianapolis is that Peyton Manning doesn’t throw any more game-changing interceptions.
But Manning has bounced back before. Can he do it again Thursday night?

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

8:20 pm Thursday
Betting Line: Indianapolis favored at -3.

The Colts had some serious turnover problems in the last game, a surprising home loss to Dallas in which Peyton Manning threw an interception that led to Dallas’ game-winning field goal in overtime.

Manning is working with a ragtag group of receivers and tight ends, but they are talented. The football predictions nation knows that the Colts’ offense is still deadly despite those injuries and injuries in the offensive backfield, and Manning and co. showed it last week with four TD drives of 60+ yards.

The Titans have not fared well against the pass and have had their own problems on offense as well.

Chris Johnson is not getting the holes in the run game he once had and Tennessee has not scored a whole lot of points.

The football predictions underdog Titans have their hands full in this one and even if they are able to go toe-to-toe with the high-powered Colts, disaster could still be lurking:

Tennessee is one of the most highly-penalized teams in the NFL.

The action so far this week has been moving towards the Colts in this battle of two former Super Bowl contenders who are trying to salvage some hope in the playoff race, but it’s hard to bet against a team with a Hall-of-Fame quarterback like the football predictions Colts in a game like this.

Tennessee will battle but Indianapolis should win this one by a touchdown or more as long as Manning is on the same page with his receivers, takes what the defense gives him and doesn’t try to do too much like last week.

Tennessee doesn’t have the same pass-rushing threat that the Cowboys do and that will also be a big difference.

Football predictions pick: Indianapolis (-3).

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Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans Betting Trends

December 8, 2010 in Week 14

Chris Johnson

Can Chris Johnson drive a stake into the Colts season

Here’s some betting trends to consider while handicapping the Thursday night game.  I’m not a huge fan of trends. Sure, some are very important, but its easy to get bogged down or rely on meaningless numbers.  In my opinion, you should use trends to support your theory/pick,  not as the main reason for it.

As I warned yesterday… the Colts have moved to a -3.5 favorite, that extra half point is significant, but it hasn’t slowed down the public from supporting Peyton and Co.  If you’re considering the Titans, you should sit tight and see if the line goes to +5.

Current streak:

  • Indianapolis has lost 3 straight games.
  • Tennessee has lost 5 straight games.

Team records:

  • Indianapolis: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS
  • Tennessee: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS

Indianapolis most recently:

  • When playing in December are 7-3
  • When playing on grass are 6-4
  • After outgaining opponent are 6-4
  • When playing within the division are 8-2

Tennessee most recently:

  • When playing in December are 5-5
  • When playing on grass are 3-7
  • After being outgained are 4-6
  • When playing within the division are 3-7

A few trends to consider:

  • The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Indianapolis’s last 10 games when playing Tennessee
  • The total has gone OVER in 8 of Indianapolis’s last 9 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
  • Indianapolis is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing Tennessee
  • The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Tennessee’s last 10 games when playing Indianapolis
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee’s last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee’s last 9 games at home
  • Tennessee is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Indianapolis