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Thursday Night Free Pick – Jets vs Broncos

November 17, 2011 in Free Picks

NY Jets -6 at Denver

Shonn Greene
Shonn Greene is the key to tonight’s game.

Honestly, I don’t know how reasonable handicapper can take the Broncos’ side with much confidence. I’m not saying they won’t cover, but it’s just hard to come up with solid reasons why. If you like the Broncos, it’s for one of three reasons…

  1. You like the home dog theory.
  2. The Jets are traveling on a short week.
  3. Tebow is simply a winner.

It’s hard to argue that Denver is actually a better team, they’re not. I’m not a huge Jets fan, but they’re run defense has been solid lately and I think that’ll be enough to win this game. John Fox’s odd presser about Tebow not running a normal offense was some kind of smoke-screen and Denver might come out with wide open attack tonight. But the Jets two cornerbacks are still a big problem, enough to get Tebow in trouble.

The only thing that scares me about this game is NY’s travel itinerary, they’re 1-3 ATS this year in road games. But the one cover was against Buffalo a couple weeks ago in an important game and I think they can do it again tonight. Picks: Jets

If you’re a regular follower, you know I usually favor the Under and look for good situations for low scoring games. But not tonight. This game opened at 42 and it’s been bet down to 40, which offers us a good opportunity strictly from the value side of things.

There are a few injuries but RBs are mostly interchangeable, so that doesn’t bother me too much. The weather will be perfect. John Fox is good coach and he knows the difference between KC and NY when it comes to stopping rushing attacks. I’m betting, literally, that he opens things up tonight and comes up with a plan that attacks the middle of NY’s pass defense. I doubt it will lead to victory, but Denver will probably the move the ball tonight. The Jets are going to pound the rock all night and Denver really hasn’t faced a team with a good rushing attack lately. Pick: Over 40. This is also a good opportunity to parlay the Jets -6 with Over 40.

Please check out NFL Picks Pro for this weekends games.

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos Free Point Spread Pick

November 13, 2010 in Free Picks

Kyle Orton

Coming off a devastating loss last weekend in Oakland, can the Kansas City Chiefs rebound in time to be your Football Betting pick this Sunday? Let’s take a look, as they hit the road again to face the Denver Broncos.

Kansas City Chiefs (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) at Denver Broncos (2-6 SU, 2-6 ATS)

Betting Odds:

Kansas City: -1
Denver: +1
Total: 43

Entering this one, Kansas City is coming off maybe their most emotional loss of the year, as they fell to the Raiders in Oakland last weekend 23-20 in overtime. That despite having the lead into the final minutes of the game.

For the Chiefs to be the NFL Sports Betting pick this weekend, they’ll need to figure out a way to get quarterback Matt Cassel going. To his credit, Cassel is coming off one of his best games of the season last weekend in Oakland. He threw for 216 yards and two touchdowns. Yet it’s the rest of the season that’s the concern. Now in his second year in Kansas City, Cassel is barely completing 58 percent of his passes, which is one of the worst numbers of any starter in the league. It’s a big reason why the Chiefs have the 30th ranked passing game in the league.

Of course, when you’ve got a running game like Kansas City, often times it doesn’t matter what your quarterback does. The Chiefs enter this one as the league’s top ranked rushing team, averaging an impressive 179 yards on the ground per game. Back Jamaal Charles is quietly putting together a monster 2010 campaign as his 719 yards rushing is sixth in the league, and his 6.4 yards per carry is first. Charles could prove tough for a struggling Denver defense.

That’s right, for the Broncos, everything that can go wrong has in the last few weeks as they’ve lost their last four games straight up. Their only saving grace is the bye week they’re coming off of. But will it be enough?

For Denver to have any chance in this one, they’ll need a huge game from quarterback Kyle Orton, and given the numbers he’s putting up this year, that doesn’t seem so far-fetched. Orton is third in the league in passing yards, with 2,748, in addition to a commendable 12 touchdown passes in just eight games. Orton has thrown at least one touchdown in every Broncos game this season.

Still, even off a bye, and even with Orton’s big arm, we’re not taking the Broncos here.

You don’t get to 2-6 at this point of the season by accident, and for Denver the problems are mounting, especially on the defensive side of the football. They’ve given up at least 24 points in their last four games, including a staggering 59 three weeks ago to Oakland. Is that the kind of NFL Betting pick you want to wager on?

Most importantly, the one place you’ve got to be strong when you play the Chiefs (against the run) is Denver’s weakness. They rank 31st in the NFL in rushing defense, allowing 154 yards per game. Going against a back as skilled as Charles, Denver could be in line to give up a lot of points.

Even in a crucial divisional game, it’s hard seeing the Broncos slowing down the Chiefs here.

When it comes to the picks this weekend, the safest bet on the board might be the Kansas City Chiefs giving just one point. That’s the NFL Sports Betting pick to make.

NFL Free Betting Pick: Kansas City -1

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