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Monday Night Football Trends – New Orleans vs Atlanta

December 26, 2011 in Guest Blogger

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The NFC South title is on the line on Monday night in New Orleans as the Saints can clinch the division with a victory, while the defending South champion Falcons can force New Orleans into a must-win next week with a victory. The Saints are 7-point NFL football bets favorites on WagerWeb.com.

Both these teams are in the playoffs regardless. The Saints are still hoping to get that NFC’s No. 2 seed but would have to win their final two games and have the Niners lose at the Rams this Sunday (not likely). More likely New Orleans will finish as the No. 3 seed and will have to play on wild-card weekend, albeit at home. Atlanta has clinched at least a wild-card spot and would have to win out and have New Orleans lose both to take the division. The battle for that No. 5 seed in the NFC is down to Atlanta and Detroit (10-5). That’s significant — and Atlanta has the tiebreaker — because you’d much rather play a wild card game at the Giants or Cowboys (winner of that game Sunday is the NFC East champ) than at either of the two teams in play for the third seed, San Francisco or New Orleans.

With 305 passing yards tonight, Saints QB Drew Brees will set the NFL single-season yardage record, eclipsing Dan Marino’s mark of 5,084 set back in 1984. Last week, Brees threw for 412 yards and five touchdowns in the Saints’ sixth win in a row. Brees became just the sixth player in NFL history to throw for 400 yards with at least five passing TDs and zero interceptions – it hadn’t been done since Donovan McNabb back in 2004. Brees has thrown for 322 yards or more in five straight games, with 16 touchdowns and no picks during that span.

These teams met back on Nov. 23, a 26-23 Saints overtime win at the Georgia Dome. In that one, Falcons coach Mike Smith went for it on fourth-and-1 at his own 29 early in OT. The Falcons were stopped and New Orleans kicked the winning field goal shortly after. Brees threw for 322 yards and two TDs in that game, although New Orleans only had 41 rushing yards. Falcons QB Matt Ryan threw a whopping 52 passes, completing 29 for 351 yards and two scores.

When the Falcons use the no-huddle, Ryan is very effective and it really changes the tempo of this offense. He really gets into a nice groove, he is good at calling plays and his receivers can use a lot of motion to confuse the Saints’ defense before the snap. New Orleans will probably need to blitz a lot and play sub packages, but the no-huddle will not allow the Saints to substitute enough to match up with Atlanta’s passing game. The Falcons also like to spread things out in the no-huddle and then run Michael Turner. Atlanta doesn’t use the screen pass very often, but it could be pretty effective versus the aggressive Saints pressure schemes, and backup RB Jacquizz Rodgers has a good skill set for the screen.

New Orleans has won two straight and nine of 11 against Atlanta, but lost 27-24 at home to the Falcons in 2010. Each of the last four games between the teams has been decided by three points — three of them won by the Saints.

  • WAGERWEB.COM — Saints -7 (52)
  • RECORD VS. SPREAD — Atlanta 7-6-1; New Orleans 10-4
  • SERIES RECORD — Falcons lead 45-39
  • LAST MEETING — Saints beat Falcons 26-23 OT, Nov. 13
  • LAST WEEK — Saints beat Vikings 42-20; Falcons beat Jaguars 41-14
  • FALCONS OFFENSE — OVERALL (13), RUSH (18), PASS (9)
  • FALCONS DEFENSE — OVERALL (20), RUSH (18), PASS (22)
  • SAINTS OFFENSE — OVERALL (1), RUSH (8), PASS (1)
  • SAINTS DEFENSE — OVERALL (24t), RUSH (13), PASS (28)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES — Falcons have won seven of past nine games, with one of two loses coming against New Orleans. … QB Matt Ryan has completed 64 percent of his passes for 544 yards, seven TDs and no INTs in last two games. … Ryan needs 302 yards passing to become second Falcons QB with 4,000 yards passing in a season. … WR Roddy White had 10 catches for 135 yards and two TDs last week. … White has five TDs in his past four games and also has 1,100 yards receiving this season, his team-record fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season. … Rookie WR Julio Jones has eight catches for 189 yards and three TDs in his past two games. … DE John Abraham had 3 1/2 sacks and two forced fumbles last week. … Saints have won six straight. … QB Drew Brees leads NFL with 4,780 yards passing. Brees has passed for 300 or more yards in a game 11 times this season, the most in a season in NFL history. … Brees has 20 or more completions in NFL-record 34 straight games. … Brees has a TD pass in 41 consecutive games, second-longest streak in NFL history behind Johnny Unitas (47). … Jimmy Graham leads NFL TEs in receptions (87) and yards receiving (1,171). … Saints have won nine of 11 vs. Atlanta since Sean Payton became New Orleans coach in 2006. … Darren Sproles leads NFL with 2,292 combined yards (496 rushing, 659 receiving, 888 on kickoff returns, 249 on punt returns).

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Falcons vs Saints Pointspread Pick

December 26, 2011 in Free Picks

Roddy White

As if right on cue, the New Orleans Saints are set to host the Atlanta Falcons in a division showdown this weekend with a chance to clinch the NFC South title on the line. The Saints have won six straight games including an overtime win at Atlanta in their first meeting in order to pull away in the division race, and while they are already in a comfortable position to reach the postseason, their focus now shifts to earning home field advantage and a first round playoff bye as sports betting favorites.

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Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
Monday December 26, 2011 – 8:35 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
NFL Betting Lines: New Orleans Saints – 6.5
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Although they were able to keep pace in the division race early on, the Falcons have dropped to two games back of New Orleans after a tough overtime loss to the Saints and another at the hands of TJ Yates and the Houston Texans. Head coach Mike Smith continues to preach consistency, as Atlanta does control its own playoff destiny.

Falcons Saints Betting Preview: Atlanta Falcons

After spending most of the season trying to develop an offensive identity as a team that transitioned from a power-running game to a pass-first unit, it seems as though things are finally starting to click in Atlanta. The Falcons have scored an average of 36 points in consecutive wins, and just as importantly they are not turning the ball over. Quarterback Matt Ryan threw for 224 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, with Roddy White and Julio Jones combining for 220 yards in that game alone. The Falcons’ defense was just as strong with four forced turnovers, and they now rank in the top-half of the NFL in total defense.

Falcons Saints Betting Preview: New Orleans Saints

The Saints are even hotter than Atlanta after posting their sixth straight win, a 42-20 road rout of the Minnesota Vikings in which they registered 573 total yards. Quarterback Drew Brees threw for 412 of those yards and matched a season-high with five touchdown passes against the Vikings, and is now just 305 yards short of Dan Marino’s all-time single-season NFL record of 5,084, set back in 1984. New Orleans has held each of their last three opponents to 20 points or less, and while the defense is still in need of some work, they are at the least taking positive steps in the right direction.

Falcons Saints Betting Preview: Outlook & Pick

There is technically still a chance that the Falcons can clinch the division if they can win their final two games and New Orleans can lose both of theirs, but that is a highly unlikely scenario. Brees is putting on an absolute quarterback clinic this year and nobody has been able to stop him so far. Saints’ fans would love to see him break Marino’s record at home against their biggest division rival, and if they can ride the momentum of their six-game winning streak there is a good chance he can get the job done as sportsbook favorites.

Falcons vs Saints Betting Pick: New Orleans Saints

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Falcons vs Saints Betting Preview

December 26, 2011 in NFL Previews

ATLANTA FALCONS (9-5) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (11-3)

Wager Web Point Spread & Total: New Orleans -7 (even) & 52.5
Opening Line & Total: Saints -7.5 & 53.5

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The Saints look to celebrate the holidays with an NFC South title when they host the rival Falcons on Monday night. New Orleans has won six consecutive games (SU and ATS), while Atlanta is 4-1 SU (2-1-2 ATS) in its past five contests.

These teams have played three straight games decided by a field goal, including Atlanta’s overtime win in New Orleans last season (which came courtesy of a 29-yard overtime miss by Saints K Garrett Hartley). Atlanta is coming off back-to-back wins and its passing game is clicking now that the team is finally healthy. The Falcons will likely rely on RB Michael Turner again (102 rushing YPG vs. Saints the last three seasons). The Saints should be able to beat Atlanta’s mediocre secondary. QB Drew Brees has been on fire lately, and has also surpassed 300 yards in his past three games against the Falcons.

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Although the Falcons lost in overtime to the Saints on Nov. 13, QB Matt Ryan still threw for a career-high 351 yards in that narrow defeat. He has 242 passing YPG, 5 TD and 1 INT in his past three meetings with New Orleans. Ryan has been in quite a zone over the past five weeks, throwing for 278 YPG with 12 TD and 2 INT. WR Roddy White has been the main beneficiary of Ryan’s hot hand, piling up 537 receiving yards and 5 TD in these five contests. The Saints have had difficulty stopping White in the past, as he has tallied 829 yards and seven touchdowns in 13 career games against New Orleans. And the Saints pass defense has not shut down anybody this year, allowing the fifth-most passing yards in the NFL (256 YPG).

Brees continues to have a monster season, with 16 TD and 0 INT in his past five games. His production indoors has been off the charts, as he has completed 73% of his passes for 8.3 YPA, 25 TD and 3 INT when throwing with a roof over his head. He has also loved facing the Falcons in his career, beating them nine out of 12 times and throwing for 297 YPG, 23 TD and 10 INT in these dozen meetings. Somewhat lost in the gaudy passing attack for New Orleans is a running game that has been very good over the past four weeks (145 YPG on 5.0 YPC). Atlanta’s usually stingy run defense has been porous in the past three weeks, allowing 145 rushing YPG on a whopping 6.7 yards per carry.

Both teams have done a great job protecting the football, as Atlanta has two straight giveaway-free games and New Orleans had a string of four consecutive turnover-less contests before its two giveaways last week.

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Atlanta Falcons vs Jacksonville Jaguars – Betting Trends

December 15, 2011 in Guest Blogger

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Atlanta can take another step toward returning to the playoffs – and still keep alive its faint hopes of repeating as NFC South champs – with a win over a Jacksonville team coming off its best performance of the season.

If the playoffs started today, the Falcons would be in, claiming one of the NFC’s two wild-card slots. The Jaguars’ Maurice Jones-Drew remains the NFL’s leading rusher, but the Falcons defense ranks fifth against the run. Plus, Atlanta can offset Jones-Drew with its own workhorse back. Michael Turner, coupled with Atlanta’s dangerous passing targets, can move the chains and keep Jacksonville’s offense on the sideline.

Jones-Drew and the Jaguars certainly produced last week, putting together their best effort of the season for interim coach Mel Tucker. After falling behind to Tampa Bay, they ripped off 41 straight points for a 41-14 victory, scoring on offense, defense and special teams.

Roddy White

Atlanta fell behind 23-7 at Carolina, but the Falcons were a different team after the break. Matt Ryan threw three touchdown passes, the defense came up with two huge interceptions and Atlanta rallied for a 31-23 victory. Ryan, who has topped 300 yards in three of the last five games, will try to lead his team to another win by setting a single-season mark. He needs 232 yards to top last year’s 3,705.

Coach Mike Smith gave the Falcons a scare after the victory over Carolina. The coach experienced some sort of medical problem and was hustled to a hospital in Charlotte. After being examined for a few hours, he flew back to Atlanta in the middle of the night on the owner’s private jet. He will coach tonight.

WAGERWEB.COM NFL FOOTBALL BETS — Falcons by 10½

  • RECORD VS. SPREAD — Jacksonville 4-8-1; Atlanta 6-6-1
  • SERIES RECORD — Jaguars lead 3-1
  • LAST MEETING — Jaguars beat Falcons 13-7, Sept. 16, 2007
  • LAST WEEK — Jaguars beat Buccaneers 41-14; Falcons beat Panthers 31-23
  • JAGUARS OFFENSE — OVERALL (32), RUSH (10), PASS (32)
  • JAGUARS DEFENSE — OVERALL (4), RUSH (16), PASS (4)
  • FALCONS OFFENSE — OVERALL (13), RUSH (18), PASS (10)
  • FALCONS DEFENSE — OVERALL (14), RUSH (5), PASS (22)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES — Falcons one victory away from fourth straight winning season. Before 2008, Atlanta had never put together back-to-back winning records. … Atlanta coach Mike Smith was defensive coordinator of Jaguars from 2003-07. … Jacksonville RB Maurice Jones-Drew leads NFL in rushing with 1,222 yards and set franchise record with four touchdowns (two running, two receiving) in last weekend’s rout of Tampa Bay. … Falcons WR Roddy White is 35 yards shy of fifth straight season with 1,000 yards receiving. … Despite signing DE Ray Edwards before season, Falcons tied for 24th in league with 25 sacks. … Atlanta QB Matt Ryan has put up passer efficiency rating higher than 110 in three of last four games. He also went past Chris Chandler for third place on team list for career yards passing with 13,353, trailing only Steve Bartkowski (23,470) and Chris Miller (14,066). … Jaguars rookie QB Blaine Gabbert is league’s lowest-rated passer (65.3). … Atlanta likely to be short-handed in secondary. CB Brent Grimes (knee) and Kelvin Hayden (toe) did not practice during short week and both listed as doubtful. … Jaguars have placed league-high 27 players on injured reserve. … Falcons RB Michael Turner has gone three straight games without rushing for 100 yards. Since joining Atlanta in 2008, he’s had only one stretch in which he went four games in a row without reaching triple figures.

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Jaguars vs Falcons Betting Preview

December 15, 2011 in Uncategorized

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (4-9) at ATLANTA FALCONS (8-5)

 Maurice Jones Drew

Wagerweb Point Spread & Total: Atlanta -12.5 & 42.5

The Jaguars try to maintain their sudden offensive firepower when they visit the hard-charging Falcons on Thursday night.

Jacksonville ripped off 41 unanswered points versus Tampa Bay last Sunday as Maurice Jones-Drew totaled 136 yards and four scores. Atlanta, 6-2 in its past eight games, has generally taken care of business against the also-rans this year, going 5-1 SU (3-2-1 ATS) against teams that currently have losing records. But the Jags are 2-0-1 ATS when tabbed as a double-digit underdog this season. And although the Falcons have been a strong run defense this year, they have allowed 319 rushing yards (4.8 YPC) in the past two games. And considering Jones-Drew has rushed for 80+ yards in 12 of 13 games this year, he should be able to keep the final score respectable here.

Before their 41-point outburst against the Bucs, the Jaguars failed to score 21 points in any of their first dozen games. Jones-Drew now has five straight games of 100-plus total yards, combining for 745 yards (149 YPG) over this stretch, showing that the entire offense revolves around him. Rookie QB Blaine Gabbert is also playing better lately, with 412 passing yards, 4 TD and 3 INT in the past two games. He is also hoping that the Falcons top cornerbacks, Kelvin Hayden (toe) and Brent Grimes (knee) are not able to return to the field this week.

Like Jacksonville, the Falcons also had a huge offensive outburst in Week 14. QB Matt Ryan threw for 320 yards and four touchdowns in a 31-23 victory over Carolina, successfully erasing a 23-7 halftime deficit. Since the start of November, Ryan has thrown for 299 YPG, 14 TD and 4 INT in six games. Although the Jaguars have some injuries to their secondary, they still forced seven turnovers (3 INT, 4 fumbles) last week against Tampa Bay. But the Falcons talented trio of Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez and Julio Jones might prove too much to handle for a depleted back seven. These teams have faced each other just once in the past eight seasons, a 13-7 Jacksonville victory in 2007.

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Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons Free Pointspread Pick

January 12, 2011 in NFL Playoffs

NFL Playoff BettingWhen it comes to betting on the NFL playoffs, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan seemingly have a lot in common, and both must be accounted for more than anyone else on their teams. They’re about the same size. They’re about the same age. They’re both first round picks in the NFL Draft. They’ve both enjoyed time as starters for the past three years.

They’re both extremely successful in that regard.

Before this season, they also had one more commonality – neither of them had a win in the NFL playoffs. Of course, Rodgers finally got in to the win column after vanquishing the Philadelphia Eagles on the road last weekend.

Matt Ryan is still searching for his first postseason victory. He’ll get his chance this Saturday in the Green Bay at Atlanta Divisional Playoff game that kicks off at 8:00 p.m. ET.

We’re very quick to anoint heroes in sports, especially with the “immediate reaction” of the internet and sports commentary in general. Matt Ryan is a very good, and very capable, quarterback. He makes all the throws, he commands the field – he does everything well.

So does Aaron Rodgers. So do a lot of quarterbacks. But winning in the playoffs regardless of your mechanics and team surroundings is the difference between being Ben Roethlisberger (two-time Super Bowl Champion) or Tony Romo (one playoff victory in his career).

The Atlanta Falcons [-2.5 (-120)] stampeded the NFC and the majority of the league this year in football betting. They were one of the best bets in all of football with a record of 11-5 ATS and, even though they have a lack of veteran presence, this team is very well coached. Tony Gonzalez does plenty for this locker room.

Still, the NFL playoffs begin and end with quarterbacks. We can call Matt Ryan the next [Fill in the blank with your favorite all-time quarterback] but the fact is that he still has a lot to prove. The playoffs are a different animal, and let’s not forget that Ryan is only three years into a very young career.

The line on this game is moving all over the place, largely because the Falcons have been unbeatable at home and the Green Bay Packers [+2.5 (+100)] are not exceptional when it comes to playing on the road. Only one quarterback can take a step in the right direction.

At this point Aaron Rodgers is playing angry. He’s mad at Favre for holding him back. He’s mad at the football gods for injuring all of his best players. He’s mad at the world for overlooking him and paying attention to Vick, Manning, Brady, Brees and Ryan. The chip on Rodgers’ shoulder is the size of Mt. Everest.

Should Rodgers win, it will speak volumes about his leadership ability. We will write (and you will read) loads of articles about his tenacity and ability to overcome the impossible. We’ve seen evidence of Rodgers’ mean streak before.

Unfortunately, we just can’t say the same about Matt Ryan. Not yet anyways.

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Falcons are Monday Night’s Free Pointspread Pick

December 27, 2010 in Free Picks

Thanks for visiting the site. We have been posting the Thursday & Monday Night games for free all season. You will see that I like playing the defensive tackle props on these featured games and have done well with them all year. Please feel free to comment at the forum.

NFLPicksPro Wild Card Challenge

ATLANTA (-2.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS
This is what MNF used to be like every week, a big game. It’ll be 2 of the 3 legitimate NFC contenders facing off in Atlanta. Matty Ryan is apparently superman in the Georgia Dome according to all the NFL talking heads, but New Orleans is 10-4 and did win the Superbowl last year. New Orleans is getting healthy with Bush and Thomas back, plus they’ve got the best commercial going on the NFL Network (the youtube thing) If you’re a believer in the Saints this is a no-brainer, as whoever wins should assert themselves as the team to beat in the NFC and this is a chance to drive a stake through the Falcons little heart. I’m going with the Falcons, however. Atlanta looks like they’ve captured the Saints magic from last year and they’re clicking better on offense. Atlanta locks up the #1 seed in the NFC. Pick: Falcons

Jonathan Vilma Over 8½ tackles+assists -115: Honestly, I think Vilma is over-rated, but he’s good enough to post big stats when the opportunity is there. Atlanta is a near lock to provide more than 50 tackle chances & Vilma racked up 11 in their first meeting.

Stephen Nicholas Under 6 tackles+assists -155: Hmmm. What to do? -155 is a steep price, but Sean Weatherspoon is a back and is replacing Nicholas as the start this week. New Orleans is a excellent matchup for OLBs when Bush and Thomas are healthy, they are. So whoever is in this spot could cover this number by halftime. But it’ll be hard to do with limited playing time/snaps.

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New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons Betting Trends

December 22, 2010 in NFL Week 16

NFL BettingNo game will be more exciting to watch this weekend than the battle between the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons in the NFL Game of the Week.

Right now, the Falcons are deserving -2.5 favorites at home. At 10-4 ATS this season, it’s hard to stomach a bet against the rock steady Falcons. Can the Saints cause a riot on the NFL betting line?

We have all been waiting for the bubble to burst on the Falcons. They simply seem like an overachieving team on paper. I mean, Matt Ryan is just a third-year quarterback and his best receivers are Roddy White and an aging Tony Gonzalez.

For those of us who bet on the NFL, this doesn’t feel like a team that should be 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS, and that’s part of the reason they’re being sold short by the general public.

Think about it for a second: we’ve been so enamored by the tenacity of the Steelers, the thrilling punch of the New England Patriots, the inevitable collapse of the Minnesota Vikings, the fall and rise of the Dallas Cowboys, the incredible turn around of one Michael Vick, the up-and-downs of Mark Sanchez and the struggles of the Indianapolis Colts that the Atlanta Falcons have virtually gone unnoticed.

Even with the NFL’s Game of the Week on hand in Week 16, the Falcons are still not making headlines or being touted as heavily as they should be. Even looking at their odds, they’re not getting the respect they deserve.

In their opening game of the year, the Falcons were brutalized by an inspired Steelers defense and lost 9-15 as -1.5 point favorites (largely because Big Ben wasn’t on the field). Over a month later, they lost as +1.5 dogs to the Philadelphia Eagles in their worst game of the year by a score of 17-31.

The Falcons have also lost against the spread when facing a -7.0 home line against San Francisco, a game they won 16-14. Two weeks after losing to Philadelphia, they were able to outmuscle the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a 27-21 victory, but failed to cover a -10.0 line in NFL betting.

Against playoff contenders this year, they’ve either lost outright or won by an average margin of 4.2 points per game. So what does that say about them as they prepare for Monday Night against a New Orleans team which is beginning to peak late in the season?

The metrics actually don’t say anything.

This team is flat out elite. Nobody can argue that. What makes them great is their ability to grind out the opposition with clock-munching drives. When they need big plays, like they did in a comeback victory against Baltimore, they can find the will to win.

Atlanta and Matt Ryan beat the New Orleans Saints 27-24 in Week 3 so a win this weekend would put them one step closer to sweeping the NFC betting South. They face Carolina in Week 17 in a game nobody expects them to lose. Sweeping the division is a great boost for a team that struggled with injuries one year ago, but sweeping the Super Bowl Champions would be massive. There’s a reason this game deserves to be the NFL Game of the Week.

The Saints began the season as the worst cover team in football. Starting the year at a quiet 3-2 SU and 0-5 ATS , they would need a big game against Tampa Bay to earn their first cover of the year.

Their follow-up performance was a decisive loss to the Cleveland Browns 17-30 as -12.5 favorites. Like New England, the Saints would use their loss to the Browns as a wake up call and tear off six straight victories while going 4-2 ATS with Dallas and Cincinnati both forcing covers.

Unlike Atlanta, the Saints have had myriad injuries to deal with. Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush have missed a combined 17 games this season and with neither able to play, their rushing attack simply hasn’t been the same.

The 5-9 ATS record of the Saints doesn’t necessarily reflect how much they’ve been underachieving this year as much as they’ve just been a one-trick pony and depleted in the rushing game.

Now they’re at full strength, and hanging tough with Baltimore on the road was a huge testament to how playoff ready this team is. The Saints still have plenty to prove to the NFC and the conference-leading Falcons. The fact that the oddsmakers have already taken a half-point away from the home-bound Falcons in this game is a clear indication that the Saints are not to be taken lightly.

Still, any time we collectively begin to take Atlanta lightly they come through in the clutch. The Saints are a high-powered offensive team that can push Atlanta to its limits. If the Falcons are truly a Super Bowl XLV contender like we think they are, they’ll prove it in the NFL Game of the Week.

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