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NFL Playoff/Superbowl Odds

January 2, 2012 in NFL Playoffs

Finally, the NFL playoffs.   Bovada has posted odds on the Superbowl, NFC & AFC Champs.  At first glance, I’d say the Niners have decent value.  Sure they’re a little challenged offensively, but they’re built to win close games on slow fields… like we could see at Lambeau.  Bovada is also offering a 20% Welcome Bonus.

Odds to win the 2012 Super Bowl XLVI

  • Green Bay Packers - 9/5
  • New England Patriots - 4/1
  • New Orleans Saints - 9/2
  • Baltimore Ravens - 8/1
  • Pittsburgh Steelers - 11/1
  • San Francisco 49ers - 11/1
  • New York Giants - 20/1
  • Atlanta Falcons - 35/1
  • Detroit Lions - 40/1
  • Houston Texans - 40/1
  • Denver Broncos - 50/1
  • Cincinnati Bengals - 65/1

Odds to win the 2012 AFC Conference

  • New England Patriots - 11/10
  • Baltimore Ravens - 9/4
  • Pittsburgh Steelers - 7/2
  • Houston Texans - 16/1
  • Cincinnati Bengals -25/1
  • Denver Broncos - 25/1

Odds to win the 2012 NFC Conference

  • Green Bay Packers - 4/5
  • New Orleans Saints - 11/4
  • San Francisco 49ers - 6/1
  • New York Giants - 10/1
  • Atlanta Falcons - 16/1
  • Detroit Lions - 22/1

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NFL Week 17 – Colts vs Jaguars Betting Trends

December 30, 2011 in Guest Blogger

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So why are we previewing a totally meaningless game between Indianapolis and Jacksonville, two teams who have combined for six wins? Because of Andrew Luck. The Colts will get the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft if they lose and the chance to take Luck – thus that could mean the end of Peyton Manning’s Hall of Fame career in Indy. The Colts also would get the top pick if they win and the Rams somehow upset San Francisco.

Two consecutive wins after an 0-13 start have left Indianapolis tied with St. Louis for the worst record in the league in the race for Luck. If the Colts and Rams finish tied, Indianapolis would “win” the rights to the No. 1 pick in April’s draft based on the lower opposition winning percentage. Colts players have insisted they will play to win the game. Win or lose, Jacksonville is assured of a pick in the top eight.

Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew enters the game leading the league with 1,437 yards rushing, 128 ahead of LeSean McCoy. Jones-Drew has a good chance to secure his first career rushing title against the Colts’ 29th-ranked run defense. He rushed for 114 yards and a TD in Jacksonville’s 17-3 win over Indianapolis in Week 10. If he does win the rushing title, Jones-Drew would become just the second player since 1995 to lead the league in rushing while having the NFL’s worst passing offense. Baltimore’s Jamal Lewis also did it in 2003.

As losers of five of their last six, there hasn’t been much to cheer about lately for the Jaguars. A win and a rushing title for Jones-Drew would be a pleasant send-off for outgoing owner Wayne Weaver, who officially hands control of the team over to Shahid Khan on Jan. 4.

Is this the final game in a Colts uniform for veteran mainstays WR Reggie Wayne, C Jeff Saturday and DE Robert Mathis? Each is in the final year of his contract, and a roster overhaul could be in the works after the Colts’ worst season in over a decade. Wayne, who is 113 yards shy of his eighth consecutive 1,000-yard season, is second in franchise history in receptions (854), receiving yards (11,635) and TD catches (73). Mathis is second on the Colts’ all-time sack list with 82.5. Saturday is fifth in Colts history with 196 games played.

  • WAGERWEB.COM LINE — Jaguars by 3.5
  • RECORD VS. SPREAD — Indianapolis 6-9; Jacksonville 5-9-1
  • SERIES RECORD — Colts lead 15-6
  • LAST MEETING — Jaguars beat Colts 17-3, Nov. 13
  • LAST WEEK — Colts beat Texans 19-16; Jaguars lost to Titans 23-17
  • COLTS OFFENSE — OVERALL (30), RUSH (24), PASS (27)
  • COLTS DEFENSE — OVERALL (27), RUSH (29), PASS (22)
  • JAGUARS OFFENSE — OVERALL (32), RUSH (13), PASS (32)
  • JAGUARS DEFENSE — OVERALL (5), RUSH (11), PASS (7)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES —Should Jaguars, who have had little success against Peyton Manning, tank in hopes of keeping Indy out of top draft spot? “It’s just talk,” Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew said. “When I was in college (at UCLA), Stanford wasn’t all that anyways, so I don’t know what all the hype is. You know what I mean? I’m just saying.” … Colts have won two in row, both at home and with QB Dan Orlovsky starting. Orlovsky threw for 326 yards, with two touchdowns and no interceptions in wins against AFC South opponents Tennessee and Houston. … RB Donald Brown equally effective, running 27 times for 196 yards in those victories. … WR Reggie Wayne needs 113 yards receiving to reach 1,000 for eighth consecutive season. Wayne has 1,599 yards receiving against Jacksonville, his most against any team. … Jones-Drew needs 136 yards on ground to surpass Fred Taylor’s franchise record (1,572) set in 2003. Taylor texted MJD earlier in week, telling him to get it done. … Jones-Drew has run for at least 84 yards in 14 of 15 games, but his season high is 122 against Carolina.

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NFL Week 17 – Broncos vs Chiefs Pointspread Free Pick

December 30, 2011 in Guest Blogger

  • What: NFL Betting
  • When: Sunday, January 1st, 4:15 PM ET
  • Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
  • Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +3
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Sports betting players are gearing up for the final week of the NFL regular season, and Denver is one of those teams that are in the hunt for the playoffs. A win will get them in, but the Broncos have to deal with a Kansas City team that has Denver’s former starter at quarterback, and along with their defense, the Chiefs will make the playoff picture more interesting.

Why Bet On Kansas City Chiefs (6-9 SU, 8-7 ATS)

A week after the Chiefs ended Green Bay’s run at an undefeated season, they fell 16-13 in overtime to Oakland in a sloppy game that featured four turnovers (two by each team) and 26 flags (Kansas City was penalized 11 times for 88 yards). Kyle Orton was 21-of-36 for 300 yards and a touchdown, but he was also picked off twice as he is still learning his way around the offense, as well as the tendencies of his receivers. The ground game racked up 135 yards, led by 56 yards from Jackie Battle and another 51 yards from veteran Thomas Jones, and the offense was aided by five first downs due to penalties. But they lost this game due to mistakes by their own accord, as well as a 49-yard field-goal attempt by Ryan Succop that was blocked at the end of regulation (he had two blocked in the game). The defense did a very good job against the Oakland offense, holding them to 308 yards, but in the end, the Kansas City offense just couldn’t put enough points on the board.

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Battle (foot) was seen in a walking boot this week and the Chiefs may hold him out, which means Jones would get the majority of the carries and the 33-year-old hasn’t been that effective in 2011 to begin with. Losing Jamaal Charles early in the season really killed the Chiefs’ NFL betting chances, and things got worse when quarterback Matt Cassel got hurt. Now, the Chiefs are just aiming to play spoiler as a win would play havoc with Denver’s playoff chances.

Why Bet On Denver Broncos (8-7 SU, 7-7-1 ATS)

The Broncos didn’t help their cause in a 40-14 loss in Buffalo, and quarterback Tim Tebow finally fell to earth, going 13-of-30 for 185 yards and a touchdown, but he was picked off four times and two of them were taken back for touchdowns. He did run for 34 yards and a score, but the second-year pivot couldn’t conjure any magic for the Broncos, whose defense didn’t help matter by allowing 160 yards on the ground. The Broncos even gave up a 80-yard punt return for a score in a game where all three facets of the team failed miserably, and their performance in the fourth quarter was especially disappointing as they were outscored 17-0, although Denver can point to a Buffalo team that had nothing to lose and played like they were relaxed. On the other hand, the Broncos looked tight, especially Tebow, who learned that an NFL game with playoff implications is much more difficult than, for example, an SEC title game. All the Bills did was bring to light what we already knew: if you turn Tebow into a passing quarterback, your odds of winning increase dramatically.

Running back Willis McGahee (hamstring) has played through his injury, and he’ll give it everything he has got this week. But it’s on defense where the Broncos have serious problem as safeties Brian Dawkins (neck) and Quinton Carter (hamstring) are questionable and will have to be watched throughout the week. The Broncos need to win this game and they win the AFC, while a loss opens the door for Oakland so they are in control their own destiny, but Denver has to come out firing for this game if they want to reach the postseason for the first time since 2005.

How It Will Play Out

Denver is a 3-point favorite at home according to NFL betting odds, and they’re 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS in their last five at Mile High against the Chiefs, with three games going over the posted total. However, the Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS at home, while the Chiefs are 4-3 ATS on the road.

The Chiefs would love nothing better than to stick it to their rivals, and they’ll also be out to avenge a 17-10 loss at home back in November in which the Broncos ran for 244 yards. There is another subplot as Orton was released by Denver to make room for Tebow, and he has some added inside knowledge as well, although the defense surely knows his tendencies. The key will be stopping the run as the Chiefs are dangerous against the pass, and they’ll shock Denver en route to an online betting upset.

Chiefs Broncos Betting Pick: Kansas City Chiefs

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NFL Week 17 – Lions vs Packers Pointspread Free Pick

December 29, 2011 in Guest Blogger

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For everything that fans of the defending Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers have watched their team accomplish through the 2011 calendar year, the truth is that fans of the Detroit Lions should be just as happy as they are heading in to the final week of the season. Lions’ fans will get to see their team return to the playoffs this year for the first time since 1999, and after enduring some of the hardest times throughout the past 11 years, it has been a long time coming for an organization that had been mired in irrelevancy for far too long.

With that said, the Lions have a couple of tough tests ahead of them over the next couple of weeks, with a trip to Lambeau Field to face the one-loss Packers before facing a division winner in the NFC Wild Card round. It will be interesting to see how both teams approach this game given the fact that the NFC Wild Card spots have been clinched, with Detroit listed as the slight sports betting favorite.

Betting Preview: Detroit Lions

A 14-point comeback win at Oakland and a 38-10 blowout win over the San Diego Chargers at home highlighted the three-game win streak that helped the Lions lock up the final NFC Wild Card spot this past Sunday. It marked the second time this season that Detroit won at least three in a row, and with quarterback Matt Stafford, Calvin Johnson and the fifth-ranked pass offense in the league hooking up early and often it makes sense that the team has been so successful. Now it will come down to having Ndamakong Suh and the defense ready to raise its level of play for the postseason after finishing near the bottom of the NFL against the run and near the middle against the pass.

Betting Preview: Green Bay Packers

It is unlikely that Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will spend much time looking back at what could have been with a win at Kansas City two weeks ago, at least until their season is over. Green Bay will be focused on the task at hand, and since they have already clinched the best record in the NFC, and a first round bye, they can afford to play their starters in this game to keep them from resting three weeks before their first playoff game. Rodgers has been brilliant this year with 4,643 passing yards and 45 touchdowns, and he could potentially reach 5,000 in this game if he wants to take the shot.

Betting On Lions Packers Preview: Outlook & Pick

The fact that the NFC North will send two teams to the postseason this year and neither one is the Chicago Bears has to be somewhat surprising, and both the Packers and Lions’ fans should be happy with all that their teams have already accomplished. That said, it makes sense for Green Bay to leave their starters in longer in order to keep them from becoming rusty from too long of a layoff, while Detroit could be caught scoreboard watching as they look forward to their first playoff game in 11 years, even though they are listed as sportsbook favorites.

Betting On Lions Packers Pick: Green Bay Packers

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Monday Night Football Trends – New Orleans vs Atlanta

December 26, 2011 in Guest Blogger

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The NFC South title is on the line on Monday night in New Orleans as the Saints can clinch the division with a victory, while the defending South champion Falcons can force New Orleans into a must-win next week with a victory. The Saints are 7-point NFL football bets favorites on WagerWeb.com.

Both these teams are in the playoffs regardless. The Saints are still hoping to get that NFC’s No. 2 seed but would have to win their final two games and have the Niners lose at the Rams this Sunday (not likely). More likely New Orleans will finish as the No. 3 seed and will have to play on wild-card weekend, albeit at home. Atlanta has clinched at least a wild-card spot and would have to win out and have New Orleans lose both to take the division. The battle for that No. 5 seed in the NFC is down to Atlanta and Detroit (10-5). That’s significant — and Atlanta has the tiebreaker — because you’d much rather play a wild card game at the Giants or Cowboys (winner of that game Sunday is the NFC East champ) than at either of the two teams in play for the third seed, San Francisco or New Orleans.

With 305 passing yards tonight, Saints QB Drew Brees will set the NFL single-season yardage record, eclipsing Dan Marino’s mark of 5,084 set back in 1984. Last week, Brees threw for 412 yards and five touchdowns in the Saints’ sixth win in a row. Brees became just the sixth player in NFL history to throw for 400 yards with at least five passing TDs and zero interceptions – it hadn’t been done since Donovan McNabb back in 2004. Brees has thrown for 322 yards or more in five straight games, with 16 touchdowns and no picks during that span.

These teams met back on Nov. 23, a 26-23 Saints overtime win at the Georgia Dome. In that one, Falcons coach Mike Smith went for it on fourth-and-1 at his own 29 early in OT. The Falcons were stopped and New Orleans kicked the winning field goal shortly after. Brees threw for 322 yards and two TDs in that game, although New Orleans only had 41 rushing yards. Falcons QB Matt Ryan threw a whopping 52 passes, completing 29 for 351 yards and two scores.

When the Falcons use the no-huddle, Ryan is very effective and it really changes the tempo of this offense. He really gets into a nice groove, he is good at calling plays and his receivers can use a lot of motion to confuse the Saints’ defense before the snap. New Orleans will probably need to blitz a lot and play sub packages, but the no-huddle will not allow the Saints to substitute enough to match up with Atlanta’s passing game. The Falcons also like to spread things out in the no-huddle and then run Michael Turner. Atlanta doesn’t use the screen pass very often, but it could be pretty effective versus the aggressive Saints pressure schemes, and backup RB Jacquizz Rodgers has a good skill set for the screen.

New Orleans has won two straight and nine of 11 against Atlanta, but lost 27-24 at home to the Falcons in 2010. Each of the last four games between the teams has been decided by three points — three of them won by the Saints.

  • WAGERWEB.COM — Saints -7 (52)
  • RECORD VS. SPREAD — Atlanta 7-6-1; New Orleans 10-4
  • SERIES RECORD — Falcons lead 45-39
  • LAST MEETING — Saints beat Falcons 26-23 OT, Nov. 13
  • LAST WEEK — Saints beat Vikings 42-20; Falcons beat Jaguars 41-14
  • FALCONS OFFENSE — OVERALL (13), RUSH (18), PASS (9)
  • FALCONS DEFENSE — OVERALL (20), RUSH (18), PASS (22)
  • SAINTS OFFENSE — OVERALL (1), RUSH (8), PASS (1)
  • SAINTS DEFENSE — OVERALL (24t), RUSH (13), PASS (28)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES — Falcons have won seven of past nine games, with one of two loses coming against New Orleans. … QB Matt Ryan has completed 64 percent of his passes for 544 yards, seven TDs and no INTs in last two games. … Ryan needs 302 yards passing to become second Falcons QB with 4,000 yards passing in a season. … WR Roddy White had 10 catches for 135 yards and two TDs last week. … White has five TDs in his past four games and also has 1,100 yards receiving this season, his team-record fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season. … Rookie WR Julio Jones has eight catches for 189 yards and three TDs in his past two games. … DE John Abraham had 3 1/2 sacks and two forced fumbles last week. … Saints have won six straight. … QB Drew Brees leads NFL with 4,780 yards passing. Brees has passed for 300 or more yards in a game 11 times this season, the most in a season in NFL history. … Brees has 20 or more completions in NFL-record 34 straight games. … Brees has a TD pass in 41 consecutive games, second-longest streak in NFL history behind Johnny Unitas (47). … Jimmy Graham leads NFL TEs in receptions (87) and yards receiving (1,171). … Saints have won nine of 11 vs. Atlanta since Sean Payton became New Orleans coach in 2006. … Darren Sproles leads NFL with 2,292 combined yards (496 rushing, 659 receiving, 888 on kickoff returns, 249 on punt returns).

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Falcons vs Saints Pointspread Pick

December 26, 2011 in Free Picks

Roddy White

As if right on cue, the New Orleans Saints are set to host the Atlanta Falcons in a division showdown this weekend with a chance to clinch the NFC South title on the line. The Saints have won six straight games including an overtime win at Atlanta in their first meeting in order to pull away in the division race, and while they are already in a comfortable position to reach the postseason, their focus now shifts to earning home field advantage and a first round playoff bye as sports betting favorites.

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Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
Monday December 26, 2011 – 8:35 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
NFL Betting Lines: New Orleans Saints – 6.5
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Although they were able to keep pace in the division race early on, the Falcons have dropped to two games back of New Orleans after a tough overtime loss to the Saints and another at the hands of TJ Yates and the Houston Texans. Head coach Mike Smith continues to preach consistency, as Atlanta does control its own playoff destiny.

Falcons Saints Betting Preview: Atlanta Falcons

After spending most of the season trying to develop an offensive identity as a team that transitioned from a power-running game to a pass-first unit, it seems as though things are finally starting to click in Atlanta. The Falcons have scored an average of 36 points in consecutive wins, and just as importantly they are not turning the ball over. Quarterback Matt Ryan threw for 224 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, with Roddy White and Julio Jones combining for 220 yards in that game alone. The Falcons’ defense was just as strong with four forced turnovers, and they now rank in the top-half of the NFL in total defense.

Falcons Saints Betting Preview: New Orleans Saints

The Saints are even hotter than Atlanta after posting their sixth straight win, a 42-20 road rout of the Minnesota Vikings in which they registered 573 total yards. Quarterback Drew Brees threw for 412 of those yards and matched a season-high with five touchdown passes against the Vikings, and is now just 305 yards short of Dan Marino’s all-time single-season NFL record of 5,084, set back in 1984. New Orleans has held each of their last three opponents to 20 points or less, and while the defense is still in need of some work, they are at the least taking positive steps in the right direction.

Falcons Saints Betting Preview: Outlook & Pick

There is technically still a chance that the Falcons can clinch the division if they can win their final two games and New Orleans can lose both of theirs, but that is a highly unlikely scenario. Brees is putting on an absolute quarterback clinic this year and nobody has been able to stop him so far. Saints’ fans would love to see him break Marino’s record at home against their biggest division rival, and if they can ride the momentum of their six-game winning streak there is a good chance he can get the job done as sportsbook favorites.

Falcons vs Saints Betting Pick: New Orleans Saints

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Falcons vs Saints Betting Preview

December 26, 2011 in NFL Previews

ATLANTA FALCONS (9-5) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (11-3)

Wager Web Point Spread & Total: New Orleans -7 (even) & 52.5
Opening Line & Total: Saints -7.5 & 53.5

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The Saints look to celebrate the holidays with an NFC South title when they host the rival Falcons on Monday night. New Orleans has won six consecutive games (SU and ATS), while Atlanta is 4-1 SU (2-1-2 ATS) in its past five contests.

These teams have played three straight games decided by a field goal, including Atlanta’s overtime win in New Orleans last season (which came courtesy of a 29-yard overtime miss by Saints K Garrett Hartley). Atlanta is coming off back-to-back wins and its passing game is clicking now that the team is finally healthy. The Falcons will likely rely on RB Michael Turner again (102 rushing YPG vs. Saints the last three seasons). The Saints should be able to beat Atlanta’s mediocre secondary. QB Drew Brees has been on fire lately, and has also surpassed 300 yards in his past three games against the Falcons.

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Although the Falcons lost in overtime to the Saints on Nov. 13, QB Matt Ryan still threw for a career-high 351 yards in that narrow defeat. He has 242 passing YPG, 5 TD and 1 INT in his past three meetings with New Orleans. Ryan has been in quite a zone over the past five weeks, throwing for 278 YPG with 12 TD and 2 INT. WR Roddy White has been the main beneficiary of Ryan’s hot hand, piling up 537 receiving yards and 5 TD in these five contests. The Saints have had difficulty stopping White in the past, as he has tallied 829 yards and seven touchdowns in 13 career games against New Orleans. And the Saints pass defense has not shut down anybody this year, allowing the fifth-most passing yards in the NFL (256 YPG).

Brees continues to have a monster season, with 16 TD and 0 INT in his past five games. His production indoors has been off the charts, as he has completed 73% of his passes for 8.3 YPA, 25 TD and 3 INT when throwing with a roof over his head. He has also loved facing the Falcons in his career, beating them nine out of 12 times and throwing for 297 YPG, 23 TD and 10 INT in these dozen meetings. Somewhat lost in the gaudy passing attack for New Orleans is a running game that has been very good over the past four weeks (145 YPG on 5.0 YPC). Atlanta’s usually stingy run defense has been porous in the past three weeks, allowing 145 rushing YPG on a whopping 6.7 yards per carry.

Both teams have done a great job protecting the football, as Atlanta has two straight giveaway-free games and New Orleans had a string of four consecutive turnover-less contests before its two giveaways last week.

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Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Free Pick

December 23, 2011 in Free Picks, Guest Blogger

Jordy Nelson

Can Jordy Nelson put up big numbers against the Bears? You BET he can.

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So we know that the Green Bay Packers will not get the chance to keep their dreams of a perfect season alive this Christmas, but they have to still be feeling happy with the presents under their tree in comparison with the lump of coal that the Chicago Bears could serve up to their fans. The struggling Bears have lost four straight to fall two games back of the final NFC Wild Card spot, and another loss as sports betting underdogs against their biggest rivals will ensure that they don’t get a shot at the playoffs this year, unless both the Detroit Lions and Atlanta Falcons win on Saturday to guarantee they won’t make it.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers

Sunday December 25, 2011 – 8:30 PM ET
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
NFL Betting Lines: Green Bay Packers – 13

While many are calling the first loss of the season a blessing in disguise for the defending Super Bowl champion Packers, the fact that Chicago head coach Lovie Smith continues to give Caleb Hanie his blessing as their starter could lead to his eventual release. Despite a number of capable veteran arms available around the league, Smith decided to stick with Hanie after Jay Cutler was injured, and the result has been one of the biggest collapses of the NFL season.

Bet Bears Packers Preview: Chicago Bears

In four starts this season for Chicago, Hanie has thrown just three touchdowns in comparison with nine interceptions, and still hasn’t clinched a single win. The loss of running back Matt Forte hasn’t helped the Bears’ offense, which has managed to hit the 20-point mark in just one of their four straight losses. While the Chicago defense was able to keep them in games early on, they were absolutely routed by the Seattle Seahawks in a 24-point loss last Sunday, and could be suffering from a tough morale hit following their collapse against Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos the week before last.

Bet Bears Packers Preview: Green Bay Packers

There is no denying that the Packers have been the best team in football all year, but their loss to the Chiefs does raise some concerns. The point has been made that the Green Bay offensive line was banged up, as was wide receiver Greg Jennings, but the fact is that the Kansas City defense was able to get far too much pressure on quarterback Aaron Rodgers, and the Green Bay defense was not able to make plays in power formations. The Packers’ defense is used to Rodgers and the offense putting up a ton of points and forcing the opposition team to score, but if they do not get the ball and are forced to face power sets in the run defense, they could be in trouble.

Bet Bears Packers Preview: Outlook & Pick

Even with their vulnerabilities it is hard to imagine that the Packers won’t be able to at least cover the two-touchdown sportsbook spread against a Chicago team that just lost by 24 to the Seahawks. Green Bay is a proud team with a roster that burns to win every game, and they will make a statement as they bounce back this week with a big win.

Bet Bears Packers Pick: Green Bay Packers

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NFL Week 16: Packers vs Bears Betting Preview

December 23, 2011 in Guest Blogger

Brian Urlacher

Can the Bears cover against the Packers?

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It’s a must-win for the Chicago Bears  in Sunday’s lone game this week when they visit Green Bay on Christmas Night. Chicago has to win out to have any chance at a playoff berth but could be eliminated depending on Saturday’s Chargers-Lions game: If the Lions win, the Bears are through. Green Bay, meanwhile, might have nothing to play for. If San Francisco loses on Saturday at Seattle, the Packers will have clinched the NFC’s top seed. Green Bay is aiming to be the top seed in the conference for the first time since 1996.

The Bears have lost four in a row since Jay Cutler went out with a broken thumb. Backup Caleb Hanie was atrocious, throwing three picks in three of those four losses. So he has been dumped for Josh McCown in this one. McCown hasn’t started a game since Dec. 23, 2007, for Oakland against Jacksonville and was completely out of the NFL last season. He threw two passes last week in a late relief role and eight passes total since his last starts. The Bears’ offense has found the end zone just four total times in the past four games. And it will again be without star RB Matt Forte.

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The Bears have had some success rushing the football even with the loss of Forte, gaining 132 yards and averaging 4.3 yards per attempt in Week 15. The Packers have been inconsistent defending the run, yielding 4.7 yards per carry. Look for offensive coordinator Mike Martz to continue to be conservative with his inexperienced quarterback and pound the rock in Week 16. Chicago is making a change at RB, with Marion Barber out due to a calf injury and Kahlil Bell in. The former undrafted free agent from UCLA compiled 133 all-purpose yards in last Sunday’s loss to the Seahawks, including his first-career touchdown on a 25-yard pass from Hanie. The Bears also will be missing WR Johnny Knox, who suffered a scary back injury last week and is sidelined for months.

Green Bay will probably be a bit angry after falling last week in Kansas City to end any hopes of an unbeaten season. That also ended the Packers’ 19-game winning streak. Once tackles Bryan Bulaga and Derek Sherrod went down with leg injuries last week, QB Aaron Rodgers was a target for Chiefs defenders. Packers coach Mike McCarthy had to move guard T.J. Lang to right tackle, and Lang was destroyed by pass-rushing linebacker Tamba Hali. Expect the Bears’ Julius Peppers to rush past Lang and pressure Rodgers. That should force the Packers to go more to a running game in order to protect Rodgers, who won’t have Bulaga or star WR Greg Jennings.

Rodgers, who might not play a full game Sunday, is 6-2 lifetime against the Bears, completing 67.9 percent of his passes for 1,937 yards with 10 TDs and seven interceptions in the series. He was 28 of 38 for 297 yards and three touchdowns in Green Bay’s 27-17 win at Chicago on Sept. 25.

The Packers will be looking to set the franchise record for the most wins in the regular season this Sunday. They have already matched the 13-win totals posted by the team in 1962, 1996, 1997 and 2007.  This will be the fourth meeting between the Packers and Bears in 2011, only the sixth time in NFL history that two franchises have met four or more times in a calendar year.

Green Bay will be looking to become only the second NFL team to beat another club four times in a calendar year (L.A Raiders over Denver, 1994). The Packers beat the Bears in the 2010 season finale at Lambeau Field and the 2010 NFC Championship in Chicago, and also topped Chicago earlier this season in Week 3 at Soldier Field.

  • WAGERWEB.COM NFL Betting — Packers -12 (43.5)
  • RECORD VS. SPREAD — Bears 7-7; Green Bay 9-5
  • SERIES RECORD — Bears lead 92-85-6
  • LAST MEETING — Packers beat Bears 27-17, Sept. 25
  • LAST WEEK — Bears lost to Seahawks 38-14; Packers lost to Chiefs 19-14
  • BEARS OFFENSE — OVERALL (24), RUSH (10), PASS (25)
  • BEARS DEFENSE — OVERALL (17), RUSH (8), PASS (27)
  • PACKERS OFFENSE — OVERALL (4), RUSH (25), PASS (4)
  • PACKERS DEFENSE — OVERALL (31), RUSH (12), PASS (31)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES — Packers’ loss at Kansas City last Sunday broke 19-game winning streak and was first loss in nearly a year, having lost at New England on Dec. 19, 2010. … Will be fourth meeting between Bears and Packers in 2011. Two teams faced off in 2010 regular season finale, NFC championship game, and earlier this season. … QB Aaron Rodgers is first Packers player and fifth player overall in NFL history to throw 40-plus touchdowns in season. … Five of WR Jordy Nelson’s 10 touchdowns this season have been for 35-plus yards. … WR Donald Driver has 9,979 yards receiving and needs 21 to become the Packers player with 10,000. … CB Charles Woodson has five interceptions against Bears. Since joining Packers in 2006, Woodson has 37 interceptions and nine interception returns for touchdowns. … Bears would be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss. … Including NFC championship game, Bears LB Brian Urlacher aims for third game in row vs. Packers with an interception. … Bears DE Julius Peppers had sack and fumble recovery in last game vs. Packers. Since entering NFL in 2002, Peppers is tied for third in league with 99 sacks.

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Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts Trends

December 22, 2011 in Uncategorized

The Houston Texans and the Indianapolis Colts will both be trying to pick up a win on Thursday when they battle at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Oddsmakers currently have the Texans listed as 7-point favorites versus the Colts, while the game’s total is sitting at 40.

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Houston lost its last outing, a 28-13 result against the Panthers on December 18. The Texans failed to cover in that game as a 5-point favorite, while the 41 combined points took the game UNDER the total.

Indianapolis won its last outing, a 27-13 result against the Titans on December 18. The Colts covered in that game as a 6.5-point underdog, while the 40 combined points took the game UNDER the total.

Team records:
Houston: 10-4 SU, 10-4 ATS
Indianapolis: 1-13 SU, 5-9 ATS

Houston most recently:

  • When playing in December are 5-5
  • When playing on turf are 4-6
  • After outgaining opponent are 6-4
  • When playing within the division are 7-3

Indianapolis most recently:

  • When playing in December are 6-4
  • When playing on turf are 1-9
  • After being outgained are 1-9
  • When playing within the division are 5-5

A few trends to consider:

  • Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
  • Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of Houston’s last 13 games when playing Indianapolis
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston’s last 8 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
  • Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
  • Indianapolis is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games when playing Houston
  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of Indianapolis’s last 13 games when playing Houston
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis’s last 8 games when playing at home against Houston

Next up:
Houston home to Tennessee, Sunday, January 1
Indianapolis at Jacksonville, Sunday, January 1

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