Houston + 10½ at Cincinnati
Okay… I admit, this is a tough game to handicap. But it’s Monday Night so we’ve got to pull the trigger. I like the Bengals & they’ve played great this year, but this is the same team that’s thrown in some real head scratchers the last few years. Houston’s not much better, but 10½ is a lot of points. The biggest advantage in the game belongs to the Bengals rushing attack against a weak Texans front seven. I know, I know JJ Watt is great, but the reality is… Houston gives it up against the run and that’s the most likely scenario tonight. Houston keeps it close enough to cover. Pick: Texans
George Iloka tackles over 4½ +115: This is my favorite bet of the night. The Bengals LB’s could be rotating quite a bit tonight, which makes me nervous about their productivity. Tackle stats is all about opportunity and Iloka should benefit from a favorable matchup against the Texans & a generous Bengals stat crew.
JJ Watt tackles over 5½ + 110: It’s not often Watt is +110 to go over his number, but that’s exactly what we see right now. Obviously Watt is great, but 5½ is a big number for a pass rusher, the thing is I suspect we’ll see the Bengals running the ball often tonight – JJ just needs to fall onto a couple piles to cover. If the line drops to -110, take a pass.