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Monday Night Free Pick – Chargers vs Chiefs

October 31, 2011 in Free Picks

San Diego (-3) vs Kansas City

Malcolm Floyd

San Diego is the Monday Night Free Pick

I considered making this game one of my Premium Picks this week, but ended up going with Eagles instead. Hopefully this one turns out as well. The Chiefs certainly had a huge win last week on the road in Oakland, but if you look at more than the score it wasn’t that impressive. The Raiders were terrible at QB, throwing 6 INTs. I’ll give KC some credit for making the plays but I doubt we’ll see Rivers making many mistakes. My real concern with the Chiefs is their offense which did almost zilch last week, I expect they’ll struggle again this week as San Diego will work hard to limit Bowe.

San Diego’s second half last week is a real head-scratcher and makes me a little squeamish to pull the trigger tonight, but I think its a good bet. The Chargers have more weapons offensively and have shown glimpses of being a good team, which KC has not. I expect they’ll get it in gear tonight for a key divisional game and bring home an easy win. Pick: Chargers

Betting Lines from SportsBet

I also like Under 45 tonight. KC is offensively challenged and Rivers is not lighting it up like he has in the past. This is a huge game for both teams and that usually brings out the running games, which is what KC prefers anyway.

Tackle Prop

D.Johnson solo+assisted tackles ov 7½ (-110): This is the best bet of the night. Johnson put up 13 tackles last and I expect him to keep rolling against the Chargers, who provide the 3rd most tackle opportunities in the league. Inside LBs have posted 9 or more tackles in four of the Chargers six games and Johnson is better than most of those guys, so we should him close to the cover by halftime.

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Chargers vs Chiefs Preview

October 31, 2011 in Free Picks

Dexter McCluster

Can the Chief's win 4 straight?

The San Diego Chargers are sitting alone atop the AFC West but don’t believe they’re playing their best football.

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The Kansas City Chiefs feel like they’re finally starting to come around after an embarrassing start, but they haven’t really been tested lately.

The Chargers look to bounce back from a disappointing loss Monday night when they visit the Chiefs, who are trying to win their fourth in a row and claim a share of first place in the division.

San Diego (4-2), which saw its run of West titles end at four as Kansas City captured the crown last season, was in position to extend its winning streak to four last Sunday, leading the New York Jets 21-10 at halftime. The Chargers failed to score after the break, however, and Philip Rivers threw two fourth-quarter interceptions that led to the Jets’ last 10 points in a 27-21 road loss.

“We just need to play better and put a complete game together,” said Rivers, who finished with a season-low 179 passing yards. “We still haven’t put one together and we’re 4-2. You can look at that two ways: Obviously we’re not playing as good as we can and we’ve won four games, or we better put it together or we’re not going to get done what we want to get done.”

Rivers has clearly not been playing up to his potential.

The three-time Pro Bowler has seven touchdown passes to nine interceptions – four fewer than he had all of last season. He had no touchdowns and two interceptions in a 20-17 win over Kansas City on Sept. 25, a victory that started the Chargers’ three-game winning streak.

That loss was the Chiefs’ third straight to start the season, but they’ve rebounded by winning their last three. No team has started 0-3 and won its next four games since Pittsburgh in 2000.

Kansas City’s wins haven’t come against the NFL’s top competition, however. The Chiefs (3-3) have defeated last-place teams Minnesota and Indianapolis and beat an Oakland squad last Sunday that was unsettled at quarterback.

They intercepted both Kyle Boller and Carson Palmer three times in a 28-0 victory. It was the franchise’s first six-interception game since 1984 against Seattle and first road shutout since beating San Diego in 1973.

“The great part about what this team has done is we just continue to grind and take it one game at a time,” quarterback Matt Cassel said. “You can see us get better from the start of the season till now. Hopefully we’ll just continue to make progress. We know it’s a one-game season every week.”

Cassel had two interceptions against the Raiders – his first picks since throwing one to Eric Weddle at midfield with 55 seconds left in San Diego last month.

In that meeting, the Chiefs were playing their first game since All-Pro running back Jamaal Charles was put on injured reserve with a torn left ACL. Kansas City’s ground game was in flux and finished with a season-low 81 yards. It has since found some consistency behind Jackie Battle and is averaging 145.3 rushing yards during the winning streak.

Battle, who has run for 195 yards on 35 attempts in the last two games, will be facing a San Diego defense that has yielded 162 rushing yards in each of its last two contests.

Kansas City’s defense has also been susceptible against the run, ranking 25th in the league with 125.5 yards allowed per game. The Chargers’ Ryan Mathews rushed for 98 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries in last month’s matchup.

The Chiefs, 8-2 at home since the start of last season, have lost seven of eight to the Chargers, with the lone victory coming in a Monday night game at Arrowhead Stadium to open last season.

“We just have to keep believing,” Kansas City cornerback Brandon Flowers said. “We never bowed our head and thought the season was done like some people did. We just knew if we kept pushing, things would turn around for us. It’s going to be a great showdown Monday night.”

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NFL Picks Pro Week 8 Results

October 31, 2011 in NFL Picks Pro - Results

Week 8 was, fittingly, a blood-bath for handicappers/bettors.  New Orleans, Dallas & New England were all getting heavy action from the “smart” players, but it was Baltimore who did the real damage.  All the experts thought the Ravens would be out to avenge a terrible MNF appearance and destroy the lowly Cards who were making the dreaded early-game-East-Coast trip. Yep, there was a lot of money burned yesterday and I feel lucky to have avoided most of it and survive with at 2-2 record.

Week 8

  • Carolina -3 vs Minnesota L
  • Buffalo – 6 vs Washington W
  • Philadelphia -3.5 vs Dallas W
  • NY Giants -10 vs Miami L

Looking back… I was on the right side of 3 out of 4.  Buffalo & Philly were stress-free games under control by halftime, which is especially nice when you’re fighting to get even on the Sunday Night game.   What can you say about Carolina?  I still think they were the proper play, but couldn’t quite get the stops on third down and then were in position to win/cover at the end. There was a questionable terrible holding call late and then a missed 31 yard FG sealed the loss.

I thought Miami’s ineptitude would be compounded by a great Giants pass rush… I was wrong and paid for it.

If Week 8 proves anything it’s this…  The NFL is designed for parity, don’t forget it.

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Sunday Night Betting Trends – Cowboys vs Eagles

October 30, 2011 in Free Picks

Here’s a guest blogger post from the guys at WagerWeb (100% deposit bonus).  Be sure to check back tomorrow around lunch time, I’ll have free picks and props posted for the Monday Night Game.

Lesean McCoy

Can LeSean McCoy get loose against Dallas tonight?

The Sunday night game this week is a big one for both Dallas and Philadelphia, as certainly neither team expected to be below .500 after Week 8 and the playoff hopes for both – especially the Eagles – would take a big blow with a defeat.

A 34-7 rout of the Rams that got the Cowboys back on track after two utterly devastating losses in consecutive games to the Lions and Patriots. The Rams are so bad that we learned nothing from this particular outcome, other than that DeMarco Murray is quite effective when no defender touches him. Murray rushed for a franchise-record 253 yards with one touchdown in the win. Murray’s rushing yards are the second-most in a game by a rookie in NFL history, as Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson holds the rookie and all-time record with 296 yards on November 4, 2007.

Regardless of whether or not you deem that performance a fluke, you can count on the Eagles seeing a whole lot of Murray on Sunday Night. The Eagles have been less than impressive defending the run in 2011, giving up 124 yards rushing per game and 4.8 yards per attempt. Their technique and alignment (wide nine at the end position) tends to create natural creases to run through. Look for Cowboys coach Jason Garrett to control the tempo of the game with Murray and Tashard Choice between the tackles. Cowboys QB Tony Romo has a 111.7 passer rating in his last five wins in the series, compared with 39.7 in two losses during that span

The Eagles are the NFL’s best rushing team, part by design. The other part is Michael Vick, improvisational scrambler. Last December, the Cowboys limited Vick to a 2010 season-low 16 rushing yards. But the Eagles’ other ground threat, running back LeSean McCoy, gashed them for a 149 yards in a 30-27 road win at Cowboys Stadium. The Eagles are averaging 170.0 rushing yards through six games. Vick has 372 of their 1,020 yards and averaging a league-best 8.4 yards. . McCoy is averaging 5.4 yards per carry with six touchdowns, and his 569 rushing yards rank seventh in the league. He’s also second with 51 carries of at least 10 yards since 2010. Dallas has the NFL’s top rush defense.

Vick has developed into a better pocket passer since becoming a starter again in 2010. Last year he threw a career-high 21 touchdowns and already has nine in 2011, with a few of his eight interceptions coming off tipped passes. The Philly offensive line has struggled in protection, and Vick is averaging 5.54 yards per pass attempt against the blitz. But given time, he can pick apart Dallas’ secondary.

Given its 12-0 record following bye weeks under Andy Reid, Philadelphia could have a leg up in this one.

  • WAGERWEB.COM BETTING LINE — Eagles -3.5 (49.5)
  • RECORD VS. SPREAD — Dallas 3-2-1; Philadelphia 2-4
  • SERIES RECORD — Cowboys lead 56-44
  • LAST MEETING — Cowboys beat Eagles 14-13, Jan. 2, 2011
  • LAST WEEK — Cowboys beat Rams 34-7; Eagles had bye
  • COWBOYS OFFENSE — OVERALL (6), RUSH (12), PASS (4)
  • COWBOYS DEFENSE — OVERALL (7), RUSH (1), PASS (14)
  • EAGLES OFFENSE — OVERALL (3), RUSH (1), PASS (8)
  • EAGLES DEFENSE — OVERALL (13), RUSH (23), PASS (10)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES — Cowboys have won four of last five meetings, including playoff game on Jan. 9, 2010. … Two teams have combined to win 23 of possible 39 NFC East titles. … Dallas 4-4 at Lincoln Financial Field. … Cowboys played 11 straight games decided by four points or less before routing Rams. … Dallas QB Tony Romo has thrown touchdown in club-record 21 straight games. … Cowboys coach Jason Garrett 8-5 since being promoted from offensive coordinator midway through last season. … LB DeMarcus Ware has 11½ sacks versus Eagles. … TE Jason Witten has 91 receptions for 1,053 yards and seven TDs in 16 games vs. Philadelphia. … Cowboys 6-2 on Oct. 30. … Eagles RB LeSean McCoy has 918 yards from scrimmage in last seven division games. … QB Michael Vick has run for a TD in four of last six home games. … Eagles looking for first win at home. They’re 0-2. … WR DeSean Jackson had career-long 91-yard TD catch and career-best 210 yards receiving in win at Dallas last season. … Eagles DE Trent Cole and LT Jason Peters will start after missing two games apiece with injuries.

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Monday Night Free Pick – Ravens vs Jaguars

October 24, 2011 in Free Picks

Baltimore Ravens vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Here’s a guest blogger from SportBet.com, who takes a look at tonight’s game.  I usually post my Monday Night Football picks for free every week, but tonight’s game is part of the Premium Plays ($10). 

Ray Lewis

Ray Lewis and the Ravens KO the Jags tonight.

Monday night football this week will feature the Baltimore Ravens whom as of now are standing at 4-1 they will take on the Jacksonville jaguars whom are 1-5 and that game will take place at 8:30pm Eastern time and will be shown live Nationally on ESPN. Right now the books around the globe are saying that the Baltimore Ravens are favorites to win by nine points and the total is thirty-nine and a half so they are expecting the game to be a low scoring affair. For Jacksonville they will be looking to get of their losing skid which right now is at five and if we go by the points then come Monday they will lose their sixth straight game, shot one says that can happen for a college team due to the schedule they face but we are talking about a Professional team and one would figure that they would be better than to lose so many games in a row.

If we take a quick look at the points that the Jaguars have put on the scoreboard so far this season the max points they have scored in any game so far was on October 9th when they scored twenty points at home against the Cincinnati Bengals. Even the single game that they have won they produced a terrible performance for a humble sixteen points that allowed them to win 16-14 against the Tennessee Titans. If come this Monday their defense is not running on all cylinders they will get their butts kicked by a Ravens offense that shows no mercy when it comes to scoring on opponents. The scoring will all come down to Joe Flacco from the Ravens he so far this season has thrown 89 completions out of 173 attempts for 1278 yards for a total of seven touchdowns and has so far thrown four interceptions and lost four fumbles. The Quarterback for the Jaguars is Blaine Gabbert who is throwing for less than 50% so far with 60 completions out of 123 attempts for 717 yards four touchdowns and two interceptions. If the Jaguars are going to be able to move the ball up the field they will have to hope that Maurice Jones-Drew to keep running so far he has ran for 572 yards but a disappointing two touchdowns. The Jaguars will have to hope that their offense can at least keep them in the game for a little bit because if not it could turn out to be one ugly final score.

Indianapolis at New Orleans – Free Pick

October 22, 2011 in Free Picks

Indianapolis at New Orleans

If you are a Colts fan, you’re probably not thrilled about this upcoming weekend of football (heck, the season entirely). What with your Colts on atrocious form, running around the field like a bunch of harassed sheep without star QB Peyton Manning to lead them, I don’t blame you. Winless in six! Are you kidding me?

NFLPicksPro.com Week 7 Premium Picks – $10 for 3 Plays

The Colts (0-6, 0-3 on the Road) start to the season is one of their worst starts; four short of their record 0-10 start on the 1997 season.

If there was ever any speculation about how bad the Colts might be without Manning, I think the answer is obvious. Glaringly obvious. The loss of Peyton Manning appears to have obliterated the team’s equilibrium and erased any confidence they might have felt going into this season.

Colts fans however can take some encouragement (and I mean this in the loosest context) from the fact that their team has lost by ten points or less in the last five games – a sign that they are adjusting (if slowly) to Manning’s absence and it’s only a matter of time before they find their mojo to record a first W.

New Orleans (4-2, 2-0 at Home) meanwhile is enjoying a solid start to the season, only suffering their first defeat in five games last weekend. Drew Brees set an NFL record when he topped 350 yards for the fourth consecutive time last Sunday, a record that was overshadowed by three costly interceptions, including one in the end zone with 3:16 remaining on the clock.

In spite of costly mistakes Brees is one of the best quarterbacks in the game and he in particular must be excited at the prospect of coming up against the Colts this weekend. I mean, imagine what records he could possibly set in this game!

Football Betting Verdict: The Saints are eager to bounce back after last weekend’s defeat and a flailing Colts side that has trouble closing games seems to be just what the doctor ordered. When it comes to scoring, the Saints are a good bet to rack up the points. Watch for the Saints to terrorize the Colts fragile ego further and Brees to put on a one-man show. Bet Over 49 in this Sunday Night Week 7 matchup.

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Monday Night Free Pick – Jets at Dolphins

October 17, 2011 in Free Picks

David Harris

In all honesty, this is one of my least favorite games of Week 6. (Let me get this out of the way first, I am not playing the Dolphins). I don’t trust the Jets right now, and I really don’t like the thought of giving up 7 points while relying on Mark Sanchez. There’s also a significant trend going against the Jets… winless team coming off byes (like Miami) are something like 22-8 ATS. But… I doubt many of those teams had a new QB like the Dolplhins will be running out there with Matt Moore. Finally, I know the Jets are a “desperate team” but I think they’re as likely to unravel as play well. So I don’t know which side to play.

I do like Under 42.5. The Jets need a win badly, so Ryan will want to rely on his defense and limit Sanchez’s opportunities for mistakes. The Dolphins will do the same for their new QB. Lots of rushing attack = low score tonight.

Tackle Props (NFL Prop Bets at SportBet)

D.Harris solo+assisted tackles ov 6½ -115
I’ll take Harris to cover 6.5 tonight because it is such low number for him. This game doesn’t figure to offer a lot of tackle opportunities as both QBs won’t be allowed to take many chances, which probably means a big game for the punters. This is hardly a lock, but it’s MNF… I got to play something or watch Dances with the Stars.

B.Scott solo+assisted tackles ov/un 6½
Tough call on Scott. I think Harris will have the better game based on the scheme and that means it’ll be difficult for Scott to rack up tackles unless Miami can convert some 3rd downs. I’d lean to the under, especially if it’s got a + next to it.

Monday Night Free Picks – Lions vs Bears

October 10, 2011 in Free Picks

I’m a little short on time today (GO Rangers!), but here’s a quick look at what I’m doing for tonight’s game.

Detroit -5.5 vs Chicago
Megatron and Stafford are getting all the attention, but don’t forget about the Lions defense. They’ve come up with the big stops everytime they’ve had too. Chicago has huge problems protecting Cutler and I think that’ll be the key to this game as Detroit’s front seven dominates the night. Just keep the ball away from Hester and Detroit rolls the Bears. Pick: Lions

B.Urlacher solo+assisted tackles ov 7½ (-115)
Urlacher is one of the guys I usually try to fade.  Sure he’s a great player, but he always gets bet to go over and that drives the value of betting against him.  Tonight however, I think they missed the number a bit.  Unless we get a crazy game… Urlacher should be into double digits easily. The Detroit stat keep was handing out plenty of assists in the Lions only home game this year and that’s enough to convince me Urlacher is worth taking at -125.  If he slides any higher you should take a pass though.

L.Briggs solo+assisted tackles un 7½ (+120)
Briggs projects out close to this number, but +120 is a decent value.

 

Monday Night Free Picks – Tampa vs Indianapolis

October 3, 2011 in Free Picks

Short and sweet for tonight’s game.  It won’t matter who plays QB for the Colts tonight, this is Tampa’s night to shine on the big stage of MNF.  The Bucs have not had a good start to the season, but they’ve got some talent and I’m betting (really) they get their offense ramped up tonight against Indy’s terrible defense.  The Colts burned me last week as they put up a fight against Pittsburgh, but not tonight.   Pick: Tampa -10

Tackle props are pretty thin so far, I’ll update later if a line gets released on some of the linebackers.  Angerer could have a HUGE game.