The Dallas injury report is getting all the attention this week, but I think the inexperience of the Cowboy’s O-line will be a major factor in the outcome. Obviously Dallas needs to protect Romo and I suspect we’ll see a very conservative passing attack from Garrett. Dallas rushing attack has been terrible so far and unless there’s a major improvement (unlikely), I don’t see any reason why the Skins can’t keep the score down.
The most likely scenario, in my opinion, is a low scoring (by 2011 standards) game that gets decided late. So.. I like Under 44.5. I think this is a good opportunity to tie together a parlay too Under 44.5 + Washington +3.
Finally a game with multiple tackle props to choose from… Lines from Sportbet
K.Brooking solo+assisted tackles un 6 (-115)
This one looks too good to be true. Brooking’s snap count has decreased significantly this year as Sean Lee has emerged. I’ve said it a hundred times… betting tackle props is all about how many opportunities you get and if Brooking is only on the field for 25 snaps it will be tough to convert 7 tackles. Even as a full time player in 2010 Brooking didn’t go over 6 50% of the games. Tonight’s best bet.
S.Lee solo+assisted tackles ov/un 7
Hmmm… Lee projects out around 10 tackles and he should cover 7, but -125 (even money is a fair price) is too pricey for me. I’d actually take a stab at the under if it shoots up to +130ish. Lee’s been great this year, but the game dynamics might limit his opportunities.
L.Fletcher solo+assisted tackles ov 8½ (+100)
Some people are saying Fletcher has lost it due to his slow start, but he’s not had the opportunities in Weeks 1 & 2. Fletcher had 11 tackles in both games against Dallas last year, who also allowed Willis a huge game last week. If Fletcher has anything left, this will be a good game to pad his stats. I’m betting on him to come through tonight.
G.Sensabaugh solo+assisted tackles ov/un 5½
I’m no fan of Sensabaugh but he’s one of the few healthy guys in the Dallas secondary and he’ll be on the field for every snap. That doesn’t mean he’ll have a monster game but if his price slides up to +100 or more it’s worth a bet.
